Rutschman vs Witt

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Orioles Jim said:

https://x.com/codifybaseball/status/1691479410174808064?s=46&t=eD_XXnce6RpM2gEfRbtV3w
 

Once we get robo umps or once we even see some improvement from the umps, Adley’s walk numbers could go up even higher. 

It’s pretty crazy that he doesn’t get more respect from the umps.

[Orioles Jim]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s pretty crazy that he doesn’t get more respect from the umps.

I was gonna say, that, or he gets more of a “veteran eye” understanding from the umps.  I’d of course they rather just solve the problem with the obvious solution, though of course. 

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

This is as good a time as any to compare Adley’s 2022 and 2023 seasons.  He played in 113 games last year, 114 so far this year.  Last year he had 762 innings at catcher, this year it’s 722, as he’s been DHing a bit more often.  

Offensively, last year Adley was at .254/.362/.445, good for a 130 OPS+, with 13 HR and 42 RBI.   This year, he’s at .268/.365/.427, good for 121 OPS+, with 16 HR and 58 RBI in 37 more PA. Despite hitting a few more homers, his ISO is down from .191 to .159, largely due to a drop in doubles, from 35 to 19,

Defensively, last year he allowed 23 WP and two PB; this year it’s 33 WP and 0 PB in 40 fewer innings.  Last year he allowed 25 SB and caught 11 (31% compared to 25% league average); this year it’s 49 SB and 12 CS (20% compared to league average 21%).  On advanced metrics, last year BB-ref had him at +4 Rtot and +18 Rdrs; this year he’s at 0 on both metrics.  Statcast had him at +4 framing, +1 stealing, +4 blocking last year; this year he’s +1, 0, +1 in those categories.  I have to say, I haven’t noticed any decline in Adley’s framing skills, but Statcast says otherwise.  

I still feel that Adley will find another gear offensively eventually, but maybe not in 2023.   He’s having a solid year and doing a good job leading the staff, but you’d have to say he was better last year both offensively and defensively.  

 

Catching is so hard to quantify because you have to take into consideration the pitcher.  I’ve always tried to separate process/approach from production/results when judging talent.  The only thing I see that he has struggled with are his throws.  He’s consistently missed to SS side of 2B.  CS, PB, & even blocking  have so much to do with the pitcher.  I often wonder if Adleys “down” year is because of the stuff he is catching this year.  People always talk about how hard it is to hit these days with the specialized bullpens and pitchers throwing 100+ with other wordly movement, but no one talks about the catchers having to receive & block those pitches.  I believe that has to be taken into account.  It would be interesting to see how catchers stats correlates with the stuff+ of the staff they are receiving. The throwing issue and missing to the left side of 2b needs improvement.  

[Going Underground]

Adley home and away stats are like two different people. Seems like his hitting slumps are on the road. 

Home stats: Avg:  320  OBP : .404. SLG : .552  OPS: .956

Away stats: AVG:  218 OBP: 325 SLG :  311 OPS : .636

Homers are 12 home and 4 away. He walks more and K's more on the road. RBi's are only a few different 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Going Underground

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Catching is so hard to quantify because you have to take into consideration the pitcher.  I’ve always tried to separate process/approach from production/results when judging talent.  The only thing I see that he has struggled with are his throws.  He’s consistently missed to SS side of 2B.  CS, PB, & even blocking  have so much to do with the pitcher.  I often wonder if Adleys “down” year is because of the stuff he is catching this year.  People always talk about how hard it is to hit these days with the specialized bullpens and pitchers throwing 100+ with other wordly movement, but no one talks about the catchers having to receive & block those pitches.  I believe that has to be taken into account.  It would be interesting to see how catchers stats correlates with the stuff+ of the staff they are receiving. The throwing issue and missing to the left side of 2b needs improvement.  

Stop blaming the blocking on the pitchers.

Adley has been lazy all year. His technique has been awful. He is trying to backhand everything instead of getting in front of it and squaring his shoulders and knocking it down wit his body.

McCann is catching the same pitchers and he is doing fine.

The excuses people want to make up for Adley are absurd.

[Sports Guy]

The only excuse for Adley that carries any weight is he may be tired because of how often Hyde is playing him but he has been lazy behind the plate for much of the year. He had gotten into bad habits. Everything defensively is worse this year, whether it be pitch framing or throwing or blocking.

I think the pitch calling has been iffy at times too although so much of that comes from the dugout nowadays anymore, so I don’t know how much of that is to blame on Adley.

He just has to get back to what he was last year. It’s not going to happen this year but he needs to watch tape in the offseason and see what he did so well last year that he isn’t doing this year.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Stop blaming the blocking on the pitchers.

Adley has been lazy all year. His technique has been awful. He is trying to backhand everything instead of getting in front of it and squaring his shoulders and knocking it down wit his body.

McCann is catching the same pitchers and he is doing fine.

The excuses people want to make up for Adley are absurd.

He has been above average. Not elite like he was last year but not awful.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He has been above average. Not elite like he was last year but not awful.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking

He had 18 last year in less opportunities.

The drop off is substantial and the technique, laziness or whatever you want to call it is awful.

Would love to know why he’s doing what he is doing and gotten away from what he knows is the proper way of doing things.

We know why the power isn’t as good but why has the defense dropped off so much?

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think you could watch Adley play defense last year and watch him this year and not notice a substantial drop-off.

It's a bit disappointing.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Stop blaming the blocking on the pitchers.

Adley has been lazy all year. His technique has been awful. He is trying to backhand everything instead of getting in front of it and squaring his shoulders and knocking it down wit his body.

McCann is catching the same pitchers and he is doing fine.

The excuses people want to make up for Adley are absurd.

Adley: 33 WP and 0 PB in 730 innings (1 WP/PB every 22 innings).

McCann: 16 WP and 1 PB in 306 innings (1 WP/PB every 18 innings).

So how is it that Adley’s technique is “awful” but McCann is “doing fine?”

I do think Adley has had lapses at times and it’s pretty clear he hasn’t been as consistently good at blocking as last year.  He’s still rated as +1 in blocking by Statcast, so I hesitate to use the word “awful.”

Now as to whether the pitchers have anything to do with the increased number of wild pitches, it’s a valid question and I don’t think it’s “absurd” or an “excuse” to raise it.  Pitchers obviously play a role on wild pitches.  For the O’s, four pitchers have more than half the team’s wild pitches: Bradish (8), Gibson (7), Bautista (7) and Baumann (6).  Bautista and Baumann have 13, compared to 3 last year.  Baumann is pitching much more than he did last year (59 innings compared to 34 all last year), and we’ve all seen that Bautista’s command of his splitter has not been nearly as good this year as it was last year.   So, things like that absolutely could be factors in the increased WP numbers.  

Even so, Statcast data suggests that it’s mostly just a downtick in performance by Adley.   They break down blocking chances into easy, medium and tough.  Per their data, Adley has had 94.1% easy chances, 4.6% medium, 1.4% tough this year, compared to 93.2/4.9/1.9% last year.  So, a slightly easier mix this year overall.  They have him +4, +1, and -1 on those chances this year, compared to +7, +6 and +5 last year.  

Just for one last bit of perspective, Statcast says Adley has had 3,376 blocking opportunities this year, in 730 innings.  That’s 4.6 pitches an inning.  It’s amazing how often these catchers are having to position their bodies to block a pitch.  

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Frobby

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Stop blaming the blocking on the pitchers.

Adley has been lazy all year. His technique has been awful. He is trying to backhand everything instead of getting in front of it and squaring his shoulders and knocking it down wit his body.

McCann is catching the same pitchers and he is doing fine.

The excuses people want to make up for Adley are absurd.

Please enlighten us on the break down in his technique.  

I stand by what I said.  I see no major difference in his technique/approach.

His pop time & exchange time have both dropped from last year(both to 2b & 3B), but he hasn’t been as accurate.  His arm strength is down 1mph from last year even with lower pop times.  SB attempts have almost doubled, Runner sprint speed has increased by .5ft/sec, and runner distance to 2b has decreased by 1.5’. 
 

He has allowed 33 WP+PB in 3,376 opportunities.  Last year he allowed 25 WP+PB in 3,288 opportunities.  So in 30 less innings caught so far this year, the pitchers have had thrown 88 more potential WP+PB and Adleys blocking percentage has decreased by .0021%.

As I said before, you have to separate the results/production from the process.  It’s hard to do, I know. 

He is in a defense slump(ie. Results/production are down a tick), but the approach & technique are perfectly fine.  To say he is “lazy” is a…..lazy oversimplification of how he’s performing. 
 

A simple look at Adley vs. McCann on baseball savant will illustrate that Adley has been out performing McCann in almost every stat(blocking, framing, throwing).  McCanns throws have been accurate(again….result/production vs. process).  

Edited August 16, 2023 by emmett16

[emmett16]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He had 18 last year in less opportunities.

The drop off is substantial and the technique, laziness or whatever you want to call it is awful.

Would love to know why he’s doing what he is doing and gotten away from what he knows is the proper way of doing things.

We know why the power isn’t as good but why has the defense dropped off so much?

 

A lot has to do with the speed uptick in the game, the new rules, and the bases.  You can no longer simply block the ball, retrieve it and throw a guy out. You have to factor in who is on first.  If you have slow/medium speed you block. Against Elite speed catchers are now taught to try and pick it.  This was something never taught/practiced in the past.  Catchers are now spending an incredible amount of time working on the backhand pick-to-throw out.  The position, like the rest of the game, is evolving.  

Edited August 16, 2023 by emmett16

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He is in a defense slump(ie. Results/production are down a tick), but the approach & technique are perfectly fine.  To say he is “lazy” is a…..lazy oversimplification of how he’s performing. 
 

 

Is the approach and technique perfectly fine?

I know, I know, eye test and all but to my eyes he does look as if he's not putting in the same level of effort that he was last year.

I'm not talking about the throwing, but the framing and pitch blocking.

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is the approach and technique perfectly fine?

I know, I know, eye test and all but to my eyes he does look as if he's not putting in the same level of effort that he was last year.

I'm not talking about the throwing, but the framing and pitch blocking.

His blocking % on opportunities  has  decreased by .0021%.  That doesn’t scream major regression to me.  I pointed out in a previous post how catchers are trying to backhand pick balls in the dirt much more now than ever before, I believe  that plays a minor roll. 

I’ll be honest, I don’t completely understand the framing stats.  I need to spend some time learning/understanding how they are compiled.  
 

I think the framing has a lot to do with the stuff they are catching.  

 

[Rbiggs2525]

I am not a fan of the one knee technique catchers started to use but if it extends his career I guess it worth it.

As for the Witt Vs Adley, I still believe we made the right choice. Witt is playing in the worst division in baseball and has zero team expectations. Having an everyday catcher who can bat at the top of your order is very special.