Rutschman vs Witt

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 hours ago, deward said:

Bowden's "analysis" is barely worth reading

Bowden seems like a decent guy, but he's one of the worst baseball analysts I've ever seen in my life. Some of his trade predictions over the years have been laughable. 

Edited September 9, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Jagwar]

17 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Negative rep and a lecture?   Thank you.    Did Elias kick your dog or screw your wife?   Or both?

I think it's amusing that you think CoC lectured you when you pretty much lectured him on his sarcastic post about karma. And then resorted to your own sarcastic insult. 

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I think it's amusing that you think CoC lectured you when you pretty much lectured him on his sarcastic post about karma. And then resorted to your own sarcastic insult. 

Fantastic. Thank you for the insightful commentary.  Corn is serious.  He would rather have the feeling that Elias service time strategy backfired on him than to get an extra year of control of Rutschman.  That’s not sarcastic. It’s dead on, 100% true. 
 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the easier, much easier, comparison is going to be between Witt and Henderson.

Very much so.  Same positions, came up at about the same age.

Witt is still a very good prospect, up early (although not Machado/Trout/Soto early).  Downsides are that so far he looks like a fast Mountcastle at the plate.  Not great that he's hitting .246; batting average usually peaks the day you hit the majors.  Usually but not always. I see a bit of Alfonso Soriano or Ruben Sierra.

[Sports Guy]

The only thing about Gunnar vs Witt is that you could have had both of them.

So, in the discussion of who should the Os have drafted first, Gunnar really doesn’t come into play.  

Now, what you question is, would the Os have taken Gunnar if they already took a HS SS with the first pick?  That’s fair to ask and in that regards, you can then say, Adley plus Gunnar vs Witt and whoever else they would have taken with the next pick.

 

[Can_of_corn]

48 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fantastic. Thank you for the insightful commentary.  Corn is serious.  He would rather have the feeling that Elias service time strategy backfired on him than to get an extra year of control of Rutschman.  That’s not sarcastic. It’s dead on, 100% true. 
 

 

Of course I'm serious.  But it isn't the feeling that it backfired it will be the reality that his service time strategy backfired on him.

Some folks here are just Oriole fans.

That's great.

I'm also a baseball fan and I think it is bad for baseball to game service time.

Maybe, just maybe, what happened with Adley this year had something to do with Gunnar getting called up this year?

I don't hear anyone arguing that Gunnar shouldn't have been called up and should come up next May like I did with Adley last year.

The O's can get the year of service time back, they will just have to pay for it.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Very much so.  Same positions, came up at about the same age.

Witt is still a very good prospect, up early (although not Machado/Trout/Soto early).  Downsides are that so far he looks like a fast Mountcastle at the plate.  Not great that he's hitting .246; batting average usually peaks the day you hit the majors.  Usually but not always. I see a bit of Alfonso Soriano or Ruben Sierra.

Does it?

I figured that there was a fair degree of variance in BA year to year.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The only thing about Gunnar vs Witt is that you could have had both of them.

So, in the discussion of who should the Os have drafted first, Gunnar really doesn’t come into play.  

Now, what you question is, would the Os have taken Gunnar if they already took a HS SS with the first pick?  That’s fair to ask and in that regards, you can then say, Adley plus Gunnar vs Witt and whoever else they would have taken with the next pick.

 

The question I was getting at was who will have a better career, Henderson or Witt?  It's still way too early, but I like Gunnar's chances because I think he's a much better defender.  Offense, we don't really know yet.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

The question I was getting at was who will have a better career, Henderson or Witt?  It's still way too early, but I like Gunnar's chances because I think he's a much better defender.  Offense, we don't really know yet.

I don’t ever remember hearing anyone question Witt’s athleticism or defense in the past.

I wonder if it’s just simply a case of someone who hasn’t given the effort on that side of the ball?  My guess is that is what it is.

So, in other words, I think it’s too early to question his defense until it becomes a multi year issue.

For now, I agree with your point. Not sure if that will be the case long term though.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Does it?

I figured that there was a fair degree of variance in BA year to year.

Of course there's variance.  This is old, but I think it's still valid.  The $H column peaks the year the data starts, at age 21, and just goes down from there.

Everything in baseball is true talent overlaid with Gaussian noise.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t ever remember hearing anyone question Witt’s athleticism or defense in the past.

I wonder if it’s just simply a case of someone who hasn’t given the effort on that side of the ball?  My guess is that is what it is.

So, in other words, I think it’s too early to question his defense until it becomes a multi year issue.

For now, I agree with your point. Not sure if that will be the case long term though.

I don't know the reasons or if there is underlying talent that just needs to be refined.  But he's 3rd percentile in OAA.  One of the worst defenders in the majors.  I have to think it's rare to turn that into an asset.

Also, athleticism doesn't equal defense.  Bo Jackson was perhaps the best baseball athlete of the 20th century and was an average to below-average LFer overall.

Edited September 9, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know the reasons or if there is underlying talent that just needs to be refined.  But he's 3rd percentile in OAA.  One of the worst defenders in the majors.  I have to think it's rare to turn that into an asset.

Tough spot for SG.  He believes in OAA but he would have drafted Witt over Rutschman.   

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know the reasons or if there is underlying talent that just needs to be refined.  But he's 3rd percentile in OAA.  One of the worst defenders in the majors.  I have to think it's rare to turn that into an asset.

Also, athleticism doesn't equal defense.  Bo Jackson was perhaps the best baseball athlete of the 20th century and was an average to below-average LFer overall.

No it doesn’t but, normally speaking, effort and practice does equal defense and if you can combine that with athleticism, you should be ok.

https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/bobby-witt-jr
 

They like his defense.

 

https://www.royalsreview.com/platform/amp/2022/8/10/23206867/it-is-time-to-talk-about-bobby-witt-jr-s-defense

Good breakdown here and references multiple outlets saying he’s a good defender.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Tough spot for SG.  He believes in OAA but he would have drafted Witt over Rutschman.   

It’s not a tough spot for me at all.  

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not a tough spot for me at all.  

Then why are you trying to come up with excuses for Witt?  lol