Jorge Lopez traded to Twins for pitching prospects (edit)

[Sports Guy]

I find it amusing that Lopez’s track record means he will regress yet Bautista, who until last year had a poor MiL track record, is destined to be some great reliever.  
 

 

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Hard to shake the feeling that Juan Rojas may have been a key piece to this.

Povich seems like a good pitchability bet, I’m guessing they feel they can spice up the fastball a bit and develop a solid back-end starter. Cano seems like a guy with talent — 95 to 97, effective splitter, unusual arm angle — that they think they might be able to polish up. Nunez is 21 in the DSL and let’s just say he doesn’t have the Felix Bautista frame to dream on. There’s not a ton there to be overwhelmingly excited about.

Yet Elias gave up cash in order to get this deal done. He obviously wanted this deal. The only guy who seems to show a combo of age/production to envision as a potential future star is Juan Rojas, with his 38:4 K/BB ratio in the Dominican at age 18. I can’t seem to find a single meaningful thing out there about this kid — aside from his throwing a combined no-hitter — but the way the rest of this deal shaped up, it just feels like the “missing piece” that isn’t adding up for all of us might well be that this anonymous kid has an arm that Elias and Sig have identified as a potential gem. 

I have no idea if this is a correct take but I think you make some great points.  Throwing in cash does make it look like we really wanted something here.

[tntoriole]

31 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

In the end, Lopez was a waiver claim. I agree that Elias could have waited, and I'm also disappointed. But in a vacuum, Elias is bolstering the teams pitching depth in the minors and parlaying a great waiver claim into multiple chances to turn one or more of the acquired pitchers into another Jorge Lopez. Povich has a shot to be an end-of-the-rotation LH starter. Can't find too much fault in that, especially if Elias and his scouts liked the pitchers they got and feel that the organization's pitching development can help them.

Lopez is truly found money. I wish we could have gotten more, but it was still a waiver claim that generated some solid value, with potential upside in the future.

AllStar waiver claim .. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RVAOsFan said:

I have no idea if this is a correct take but I think you make some great points.  Throwing in cash does make it look like we really wanted something here.

No question.  I mentioned that earlier.  
 

Look, they obviously like these guys.  That’s not even debatable.  They didn’t move Lopez just to move him.  Obviously money wasn’t a factor either.

 

[DJHJR86]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We need to win.

This is just a hilarious take to me considering Rougned Odor is still batting 5th in this lineup.  This team was never poised to be .500 in August.  It was a pleasant surprise but we need to temper our expectations for this season.

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Cade Povich is Kyle Bradish.

For sure this return is some in the realm of pitch data from the complexes and who really knows what is the difference between Max Wagner and Carter Young?    We'll see in a couple years.

Povich's 500k bonus in last year's 3rd round was one of the lowest.

Midwest League might be easy after Nebraska, but he looks to have been one of the league's best pitchers.    Here he is #1 in K-BB% there.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=11&stats=pit&qual=y&type=1&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=11,1

I figure his good pitching this season has raised him considerably from wherever he was on offseason lists.   Elias targeting him is probably something I'd weight more than anything Law, Longenhagen, etc. opine.

He hits up to 95
 

Quote

Scouting grades: Fastball 50 | Curveball 45 | Slider 45 | Changeup 55 | Control 50 | Overall 40 

After plucking big lefty Steve Hajjar from Michigan in the second round of the 2021 Draft, the Twins dipped right back into the Big Ten for another southpaw starter, snagging Povich in the third round out of Nebraska. Lightly recruited out of high school, Povich played junior college ball in Arizona for a year before pitching for two seasons out of the Cornhuskers' rotation, earning first-team All-Big Ten honors in '21. He made a strong impression on the Twins by dominating instructional league play and putting up gaudy numbers in a small taste of live action to finish out his first professional season. 

The Twins were pleased to see Povich's stuff tick up in their first look at him compared to what they were expecting from their Draft reports. They anticipated strong pitchability and feel without much velocity, but Povich sat at 92-93 mph in instructional play, touching 95 at times with run on his fastball, velocity trends that continued in Spring Training. He fills up the strike zone with his entire arsenal, which also features a changeup that has depth off of his fastball, a cutter-like slider and a curveball. The Twins are currently focused on honing in the consistency of the fastball movement, with additional tweaks to the mechanics in play to help the heater play up even more. 

If the fastball continues to trend up, Povich's advanced feel for pitching and strike-throwing ability puts him on the path to being a mid- to back-end starter, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see his stock continue to rise as he continues to gain exposure to professional hitters.

 

[billw76]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His track before this year means nothing.  He was an awful starter but his role as a short, late inning reliever is completely different.  

Its like saying Mullins is the same player he was a few years ago when he was still switch hitting. 

His track record before this season absolutely means something, he was not good, at all.

If you take away this season he still only started 14 games more in his career than coming in relief. Maybe being focused on  only relieving has helped, but I'm not gonna lose any sleep about losing Lopez, he's replaceable.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DJHJR86 said:

This is just a hilarious take to me considering Rougned Odor is still batting 5th in this lineup.  This team was never poised to be .500 in August.  It was a pleasant surprise but we need to temper our expectations for this season.

I’m not talking about 2022.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, billw76 said:

His track record before this season absolutely means something, he was not good, at all.

If you take away this season he still only started 14 games more in his career than coming in relief. Maybe being focused on  only relieving has helped, but I'm not gonna lose any sleep about losing Lopez, he's replaceable.

No, it doesn’t mean anything.  It’s apples to Buicks.   He is in a completely different role. Most closers sucked as starters.

[GoldGlove21]

Soto to the Padres per mlbtraderumors

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I think there is an implicit bias against waiver claims like Lopez because he didn’t come up through the system and people haven’t been following him through the minors. I think guys like Lopez, Urias, and Mateo aren’t valued as highly by the fan base for that reason, and people are less likely to believe that a guy like Lopez actually was miscast as a starter and is in fact a dominant reliever with underlying numbers that suggest he will remain a dominant reliever going forward.

As someone who spent the entirety of Lopez's Orioles run as a starter begging that he be converted to a reliever and then seeing him immediately become one of the best relievers in baseball, perhaps I have an implicit pro-Lopez bias. 

But I just don't see anything in his relief performance to suggest that he is more likely than any other reliever to fall off a cliff.

I recognize that he was going to get expensive over these final two seasons of arbitration, and obviously that hurts his trade value but (a) the Orioles didn't have to trade him as they claim that there is a championship window opening and (b) The Orioles have the lowest payroll in baseball and can afford to pay a closer what would still be less than his fair market value.

Yeah, Bautista is certainly better and he is the one to build around, but this moves Tate into the 8th inning role and Krehbiel into the 7th inning role and converts the bullpen from a strength into more of a question mark. And for what? A guy that Elias sees as a potential #4 starter, a 28-year-old reliever who has struggled with walks, and two rookie league lottery tickets, one of whom is two years too old for the Complex League.

I would have kept him.

Hopefully all these guys work out and I will laugh at myself looking back on this thread in 5 years.

[DJHJR86]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I’m not talking about 2022.

Then we should be in good shape for the next couple of seasons.  Jorge Lopez's first great first half of relief pitching not being on this roster doesn't change that.

[vab]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I find it amusing that Lopez’s track record means he will regress yet Bautista, who until last year had a poor MiL track record, is destined to be some great reliever.  
 

 

Decent point but you seem to totally disregard this staff's ability to bring out the best in guys who have struggled elsewhere. 

[Roll Tide]

Just now, DJHJR86 said:

This is just a hilarious take to me considering Rougned Odor is still batting 5th in this lineup.  This team was never poised to be .500 in August.  It was a pleasant surprise but we need to temper our expectations for this season.

Why do you keep bringing up Odor? He won’t be traded because nobody wants him. He will likely finish the season, offer a little veteran leadership, and then not be brought back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DJHJR86]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Why do you keep bringing up Odor? He won’t be traded because nobody wants him. He will likely finish the season, offer a little veteran leadership, and then not be brought back.

I mentioned him once in this thread, but if you seriously think this team is capable of "winning" this season, you should seek professional help.