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Soto to Padres

yark14

By yark14
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Just Regular
Just Regular

The Passan deep dive. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34371428/how-juan-soto-became-san-diego-padre-biggest-deal-baseball-history It was new to me Padres owner Peter Seidler is t

Frobby
Frobby

Walker has -5 rDRS, which is about -0.5 rWAR.  Also worse baserunning and a slightly worse bat.  I’m guessing it’s the bad defense that got him demoted.  

backwardsk Hangout Grand Counsel

backwardsk

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Nats got a great package but the reality is that it’s likely SD wins this trade.

Depends on how you want to score it. If Soto leaves after 2024 and you count his WAR for the next 2+ seasons and Bell’s remaining season, I’d take the bet on the 28-30 years of prospects.  
 

If SD wins a WS in the next three postseasons, it doesn’t really matter the WAR comparison.

If Soto doesn’t hit FA, then the rest of his seasons should count and I could easily see him outperforming everyone they gave up.  
 

If Soto hits FA and returns to SD, I don’t think you count the future WAR.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, backwardsk said:

Depends on how you want to score it. If Soto leaves after 2024 and you count his WAR for the next 2+ seasons and Bell’s remaining season, I’d take the bet on the 28-30 years of prospects.  
 

If SD wins a WS in the next three postseasons, it doesn’t really matter the WAR comparison.

If Soto doesn’t hit FA, then the rest of his seasons should count and I could easily see him outperforming everyone they gave up.  
 

If Soto hits FA and returns to SD, I don’t think you count the future WAR.

To me the fair way to judge it is measuring the excess value generated while under initial team control.

Extensions don't count as the player could have been acquired as a free agent.

Of course that is only showing the direct on the field impact.

Padres had 4K ticket sales for the first game after the trades.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
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5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The Nats got a great package but the reality is that it’s likely SD wins this trade.

I think it’s a win-win.  The Nats were a .340 team with Soto and had a horrible farm system.  They weren’t going to win in his remaining Arb years.  Now they’ve got a great foundation for a rebuild that shouldn’t take as long as the Orioles’ because they maxed out their return on Soto rather than waiting too long like we did with Manny.  Meanwhile, SD has three superstars in their prime, two of whom are locked up for 6+ years and Soto can help them for three straight postseasons.  More, if they can extend  him.  Should be a fun few years for their fans, and maybe longer. 

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backwardsk Hangout Grand Counsel

backwardsk

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10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s a win-win.  The Nats were a .340 team with Soto and had a horrible farm system.  They weren’t going to win in his remaining Arb years.  Now they’ve got a great foundation for a rebuild that shouldn’t take as long as the Orioles’ because they maxed out their return on Soto rather than waiting too long like we did with Manny.  Meanwhile, SD has three superstars in their prime, two of whom are locked up for 6+ years and Soto can help them for three straight postseasons.  More, if they can extend  him.  Should be a fun few years for their fans, and maybe longer. 

Only slight quibble with that is Manny has an opt out after next season.  I think he’s owed 5/160 going into his age 31 season.  I think it’s entirely possible for him to do that.

I think there is a lot of pressure on Preller to win over these next two seasons.  Their starters, with the exception of Musgrove, aren’t controlled beyond 2023.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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On 8/5/2022 at 9:12 AM, backwardsk said:

Only slight quibble with that is Manny has an opt out after next season.  I think he’s owed 5/160 going into his age 31 season.  I think it’s entirely possible for him to do that.

I think there is a lot of pressure on Preller to win over these next two seasons.  Their starters, with the exception of Musgrove, aren’t controlled beyond 2023.

I forgot about the opt-out.  Still not sure Manny will go anywhere, though he might try to coax SD into an extension. 

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Spy Fox Hangout Veteran Council

Spy Fox

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They won the first game post-trade 9-1 but since then, an unsightly 5 game in-division losing streak with only 7 runs scored total. Imagine the panic on Padres Hangout. 

I saw somewhere that, given the bracket, their most likely World Series path would be through Braves, Dodgers, Mets, and then Astros/Yankees. Yikes. Well they've got at least one more chance to win a ring with the Soto/Machado/Tatis trifecta, at least two more if Manny doesn't opt out, and a lot more if they manage to resign Soto.

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