Poll: What’s your take on the Lopez trade

[NCRaven]

Elias didn't have to believe that Lopez's success this year wasn't real.  He only had to believe that Lopez was replaceable and that the talent acquired plus the replacement would have more future value than Lopez.  If Bautista replaces Lopez and someone like Cano, Bradish, Watkins, another pitcher in our system, a future waiver claim, or a free agent signing in the off season can play a prominent role in the bullpen, using Lopez to acquire a potential starter and some lottery tickets was a well reasoned trade.

[sportsfan8703]

We’re not trying to replace Lopez at this point. Everyone has been slotted up. Bautista to Closer. Khreibel and Perez as the primary set up guys. 
 

This issue now is Baker and Vespi until we hit the SU guys. Seems like we’re a guy short. Cano?  Joe Smith?  Lamet?  Matt Harvey?  Is there some guy in our system(not Hall) that it wouldn’t kill their development for them to come be a middle reliever the rest of the year. Ignacio Feliz?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let me ask you a question.   You predicted the Orioles final record this year at 75 and you said you'd take the under.    What would you predict the final record to be if we hadn't made the Lopez trade?

I don’t know..few wins more.  It’s tough to say without seeing everyone in their new roles.  Will Bautista or whoever take to closing as well?  Does that disrupt things in the pen?

Right now, my gut feeling is that everyone should be fine but things will show some regression.  How much more regression is to be seen.  
 

But it’s not just about this year.  It’s about next year too.

[RarityFlaherty]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let me ask you all this…at the time of the trade, which player did/do you value more…Bundy or Lopez?

It’s really hard to compare because the situations are so different, But, in a vacuum, Bundy had more value at the time. He was younger, had more years of control, and was a starter. I just don’t think you can value a reliever with less than a year of success all that high. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know..few wins more.  It’s tough to say without seeing everyone in their new roles.  Will Bautista or whoever take to closing as well?  Does that disrupt things in the pen?

Right now, my gut feeling is that everyone should be fine but things will show some regression.  How much more regression is to be seen.  
 

But it’s not just about this year.  It’s about next year too.

So, if we hadn't made the Lopez trade, you'd pick this team to finish with about 78 wins.  Is that fair to say?     You're saying Lopez could be the difference in about a 3 game swing.   

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Elias didn't have to believe that Lopez's success this year wasn't real.  He only had to believe that Lopez was replaceable and that the talent acquired plus the replacement would have more future value than Lopez.  If Bautista replaces Lopez and someone like Cano, Bradish, Watkins, another pitcher in our system, a future waiver claim, or a free agent signing in the off season can play a prominent role in the bullpen, using Lopez to acquire a potential starter and some lottery tickets was a well reasoned trade.

This is a poor thought process.  No one is saying Lopez has to be on the 2023 roster.  No one is saying you have to keep Lopez long term.  

The argument is simply, did you get enough to justify trading him.  The presence of Bautista or Perez or whoever is irrelevant.  Those guys are here either way.

The idea that they will just keep turning scrubs into top relievers is also getting out of hand.  Sure, they have done it so far this year but let’s see how the year finishes out and let’s see if they can repeat it in 2023 before proclaiming these types of things to be facts.

The only discussion worth having here is, did the Orioles get enough out of one of their best trade assets to justify trading him knowing that you are no longer in a “must trade” position.

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think this trade or something similar to it is available to us in the offseason.  Why not wait?

Because he's a career 5.50 ERA pitcher who recently moved to closer because he could add 2 mph to all of his speed pitches by not having to throw that many of them.

And that he's managed to do this for all of 1/2 a season.

And that this is quite an instantaneous jump in velocity.... which I would think might eventually break down a former starter with high mileage.

And that our other speedballer has similar stats and a touch more velocity... but a lot fewer miles.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

It’s really hard to compare because the situations are so different, But, in a vacuum, Bundy had more value at the time. He was younger, had more years of control, and was a starter. I just don’t think you can value a reliever with less than a year of success all that high. 

When Bundy was dealt, he had 2 years of service time left..Lopez had 2.5.

Younger? Yea but age isn’t largely irrelevant for a starter and it’s not like we are talking about a major age difference.

When the Os traded Bundy, he was coming off a 4.79 ERA season and the year before his ERA was almost 5.5 and had given up 70 homers in 2 years.

Yes, he had thrown over 60 starts and over 160 innings per year but he was largely a below average starter.  

In those 2 years, BR had him at a combined WAR or 2.  In 2022, Lopez (in far less innings) has a 1.9 WAR.

Here is where I’m going to agree…that their trade values are about the same.  Lopez has very little track record.  Bundy had one.  I don’t think Bundy was the better player but the track records meant they had similar value.

But that’s not exactly what I’m asking. I’m asking, who did you value more?  Who is the guy you would have rather kept?  Did you feel we should keep Bundy because he would be worth more in a trade than we got?  Do you think Lopez can see his value increase? 
 

There is absolutely so much more to this.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So, if we hadn't made the Lopez trade, you'd pick this team to finish with about 78 wins.  Is that fair to say?     You're saying Lopez could be the difference in about a 3 game swing.   

Well, I didn’t say what win total I would give the Os this year.  I just said under 75.5, albeit not by much. 
 

But yea, something in that general area of wins would make sense to me.

But it depended on a lot of things that have nothing to do with him .  All I’m saying is him on this team makes us better and him in this organization gives us better options long term than what we got imo.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, owknows said:

Because he's a career 5.50 ERA pitcher who recently moved to closer because he could add 2 mph to all of his speed pitches by not having to throw that many of them.

And that he's managed to do this for all of 1/2 a season.

And that this is quite an instantaneous jump in velocity.... which I would think might eventually break down a former starter with high mileage.

And that our other speedballer has similar stats and a touch more velocity... but a lot fewer miles.

Sigh.  What he was before this year means nothing.  The idea people keep bringing that up shows a complete lack of baseball understanding.  
 

Do you think Mullins is going to be a failure going forward because he sucked before last year or do you think giving you switch hitting mattered?

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I didn’t say what win total I would give the Os this year.  I just said under 75.5, albeit not by much. 
 

But yea, something in that general area of wins would make sense to me.

But it depended on a lot of things that have nothing to do with him .  All I’m saying is him on this team makes us better and him in this organization gives us better options long term than what we got imo.

All I'm saying is that your own posts about what you expect our win totals to be this year suggest that you didn't think the Orioles were making the playoffs with or without Lopez.   That seems pretty clear.

[owknows]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Sigh.  What he was before this year means nothing.  The idea people keep bringing that up shows a complete lack of baseball understanding.  
 

Do you think Mullins is going to be a failure going forward because he sucked before last year or do you think giving you switch hitting mattered?

I think Mullins has regressed to what he likely is going to be.

Switch hitting or otherwise.

Which I think is probably a little more supportive on trading sooner than later as pertains to Lopez

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

All I'm saying is that your own posts about what you expect our win totals to be this year suggest that you didn't think the Orioles were making the playoffs with or without Lopez.   That seems pretty clear.

Yea..I don’t think we make the playoffs with him.  That’s true.

I do think we we better shape to make a surprising run if he was still here though.  But ultimately they would fall short imo.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias believes Lopez is due for a regression.  And I don't think the raise from 1.5m to 3 or 4m caused the trade.

I think Elias knows he needs starting pitching going forward and Sig/Holt and company are tells him the Povich is someone they can make into a front line starter.   Lopez  was tradeable because the O's have a strong pen.  Especially if the return is a front line starter.  

I don't know that Elias/Holt are right but who knows.  That is my guess.

Well, I do think Elias is aware he’s selling high on Lopez, though maybe not drastically high.  Lopez’s actual ERA of 1.64 compares to his xERA of 2.92, but the latter is still very solid.   No reason to think he won’t be pretty good going forward.

[RarityFlaherty]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When Bundy was dealt, he had 2 years of service time left..Lopez had 2.5.

Younger? Yea but age isn’t largely irrelevant for a starter and it’s not like we are talking about a major age difference.

When the Os traded Bundy, he was coming off a 4.79 ERA season and the year before his ERA was almost 5.5 and had given up 70 homers in 2 years.

Yes, he had thrown over 60 starts and over 160 innings per year but he was largely a below average starter.  

In those 2 years, BR had him at a combined WAR or 2.  In 2022, Lopez (in far less innings) has a 1.9 WAR.

Here is where I’m going to agree…that their trade values are about the same.  Lopez has very little track record.  Bundy had one.  I don’t think Bundy was the better player but the track records meant they had similar value.

But that’s not exactly what I’m asking. I’m asking, who did you value more?  Who is the guy you would have rather kept?  Did you feel we should keep Bundy because he would be worth more in a trade than we got?  Do you think Lopez can see his value increase? 
 

There is absolutely so much more to this.

Lopez could see his value increase, but it could also decrease. Relievers are too volatile to value them so highly when they haven’t even had a full season of success. If he continues into next year, maybe he has more value, but there’s a lot of risk you take with that. He was only a waiver pick up, so I’m happy to get what we can for him now. 
 

I don’t really see a reason to keep either of them. Bundy was a below average starter, and Lopez was an awful starter, but has seen a lot of success as a reliever this year. You put Bundy in the bullpen, maybe he makes that kind of jump too, but he was at least good enough to stay a starter. Bullpen pieces just aren’t as hard to find  as legitimate starters, so they have less value.  Lopez has a little more value to the team right now because he was the main piece of the bullpen on a winning team, but we have younger guys to replace him with. I’m really just happy that we were able to get what we could for both of them.