Poll: What’s your take on the Lopez trade

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias believes Lopez is due for a regression.  And I don't think the raise from 1.5m to 3 or 4m caused the trade.

I think Elias knows he needs starting pitching going forward and Holt and company are tells him the Povich is someone they can make into a front line starter.   Lopez  was tradeable because the O's have a strong pen.  Especially if the return is a front line starter.  

I don't know that Elias/Holt are right but who knows.  That is my guess.

Yes, he is certainly using Lopez to acquire starting pitching, but nobody is going to trade a starter who can help in '22-23 for a closer to help in '22-23. The tradeoff is you have to accept a guy who may not help us for a couple years. 

That said, I don't know how you accept Cano and Povich if you really think Lopez is an all star closer. If you think that is the case, you keep Lopez for another year and trade him next year.

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think this is more his thinking.  Elias just really likes the return and feels we have depth.  It’s that simple.

I thought it was a head scratcher, even after a few days? If you are trying to win in '23 as he says he is then I'm not sure how you justify this move unless at some level you don't believe Jorge is for real. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I thought it was a head scratcher, even after a few days? If you are trying to win in '23 as he says he is then I'm not sure how you justify this move unless at some level you don't believe Jorge is for real. 

It is a head scratcher because the return doesn’t justify the trade.  Elias seems to think it is but I think that’s wrong and, more importantly, it’s because I feel he is value building a farm system today over winning today.  I think that’s wrong too.

[Sports Guy]

I think this trade or something similar to it is available to us in the offseason.  Why not wait?

[Aglets]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think this trade or something similar to it is available to us in the offseason.  Why not wait?

In Elias's quote he basically directly said that at the trade deadline it is easier to extract maximum leverage from teams in the playoff hunt who need bullpen help.   So it is his belief that bullpen arms have their maximum value at the trade deadline.  I guess it makes some sense if you have a team that just thinks they are a bullpen arm or two away from a deep run.   In the offseason teams won't have that same feeling of urgency.

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Aglets said:

In Elias's quote he basically directly said that at the trade deadline it is easier to extract maximum leverage from teams in the playoff hunt who need bullpen help.   So it is his belief that bullpen arms have their maximum value at the trade deadline.  I guess it makes some sense if you have a team that just thinks they are a bullpen arm or two away from a deep run.   In the offseason teams won't have that same feeling of urgency.

That is the funny thing, @Sports Guyis having a panic attack about losing Lopez and the impact on winning this year at the same time he's saying his trade value would be the same in the offseason. Quite a contradiction.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Aglets said:

In Elias's quote he basically directly said that at the trade deadline it is easier to extract maximum leverage from teams in the playoff hunt who need bullpen help.   So it is his belief that bullpen arms have their maximum value at the trade deadline.  I guess it makes some sense if you have a team that just thinks they are a bullpen arm or two away from a deep run.   In the offseason teams won't have that same feeling of urgency.

You almost always get more for Bp arms.  Let’s say, Lopez was out until June of this year and he pitched the rest of the year the way he did to begin this year.  I think if they went to move him in the offseason, they get the same or less than what they just got.

What this doesn’t mean is with more track record that his value remains the same, no matter when you trade him.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

That is the funny thing, @Sports Guyis having a panic attack about losing Lopez and the impact on winning this year at the same time he's saying his trade value would be the same in the offseason. Quite a contradiction.

There is not one true statement in any of this.  Bravo for the poor post.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It is a head scratcher because the return doesn’t justify the trade.  Elias seems to think it is but I think that’s wrong and, more importantly, it’s because I feel he is value building a farm system today over winning today.  I think that’s wrong too.

You have this right but that is the key to keeping the talent flowing in the pipeline and Tampa Bay has been doing this for years.   Many Rays trades could be argued hurt them short term and helped them long term.    

As far as the return not justifying the trade, that's to be determined but I think there's a better than 50/50 chance that you are wrong on this one. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

You have this right but that is the key to keeping the talent flowing in the pipeline and Tampa Bay has been doing this for years.   Many Rays trades could be argued hurt them short term and helped them long term.    

As far as the return not justifying the trade, that's to be determined but I think there's a better than 50/50 chance that you are wrong on this one. 

I would argue the Rays did a better job of maximizing the value though.  Lopez’s value wasn’t maximized yet.

[Sports Guy]

Let me ask you all this…at the time of the trade, which player did/do you value more…Bundy or Lopez?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let me ask you all this…at the time of the trade, which player did/do you value more…Bundy or Lopez?

That's a loaded question because of the Orioles placement in the standings right now compared to where they were when Bundy was traded.   I'd say I valued both similarly.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That's a loaded question because of the Orioles placement in the standings right now compared to where they were when Bundy was traded.   I'd say I valued both similarly.  

Where they are in the standings is obviously part of it.  It’s part of the overall equation on the trade and if you make it or not.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Where they are in the standings is obviously part of it.  It’s part of the overall equation on the trade and if you make it or not.

Let me ask you a question.   You predicted the Orioles final record this year at 75 and you said you'd take the under.    What would you predict the final record to be if we hadn't made the Lopez trade?

[RZNJ]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Let me ask you a question.   You predicted the Orioles final win total this year at 75 and you said you'd take the under.    What would you predict the final record to be if we hadn't made the Lopez trade?