Poll: What’s your take on the Lopez trade

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Glad you are laughing about this because I'm not sure where you are coming from on this issue at all. You've always been a strike when the iron is hot and I'm not sure how much hotter a guy can be coming off an All-Star appearance. Especially when we literally have his replacement on the roster. 

This is true.  I'd love to be wrong for Lopez's sake and see him go on to a lengthy career with more All-Star appearances but I just get the feeling this is a strike while the iron is hot deal.  If Lopez is still closing games at a high level in 3 or 4 years from now, I will be surprised.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Then we can just agree to disagree here. I see a huge risk that he gets hurt and becomes worthless. Not that I think he’s definitely going to get hurt, but more that the drop off from this to getting absolutely nothing isn’t worth taking. 

Why do you see a big risk of injury? Has he had a big injury history?  Outside of the stuff with his son, did he miss any time here due to injury?  I don’t remember it but maybe?

BtW, I don’t mind the thought process that it’s not worth the risk.  It’s an argument I have made a lot.  That’s the difference of opinion here.

For me, for this particular deal and situation, the risk was worth it.  In other deals, I don’t see the risk as being worth it.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Sports Guy

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It is interesting to see Elias use the TOR statement to describe him. Elias has been pretty bland in his comments in the past about guys getting back, so for him to use that statement means something. 

If he ends up a mid-rotation guy Elias wins this trade but a TOR would be a major win for the scouting department. They need one after some of the guys they've received in trades have not exactly lit the world on fire with Vavra being the only guy in my top 20 from previous year's trades.

Bradish, Tate and Kremer graduated.

Edited August 4, 2022 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think SG lives rent-free inside your head.  You seem to spend a lot of time obsessing over what he thinks or what he says.

Man, I'd never type a post like that about anyone here, not even in the JTrea heyday.  This is a little weird, not gonna lie.

He posts a lot so there's a lot of back and forth.   Doesn't seem weird to me but whatever floats your boat.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is true.  I'd love to be wrong for Lopez's sake and see him go on to a lengthy career with more All-Star appearances but I just get the feeling this is a strike while the iron is hot deal.  If Lopez is still closing games at a high level in 3 or 4 years from now, I will be surprised.

Well, 3-4 years is a long time from now and he is about to be 30 and while age doesn’t mean a lot for pitchers, it’s still wear and tear on the arm and potential deceased velocity.

That said, I do expect him to be pitching at a high level the next year or 2 and that’s really all that matters right now and in this discussion.

[mlrhode]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Exactly and I'm not sure why this concept seems to be sliding by some. 

When was the last closer traded in the offseason that got a top 10 prospect? I'll wait.

Like when he traded Scott and Sulser at the beginning of the year, he knew he had their replacements in Perez and Bautista. 

Elias stitched together one of the best bullpens in baseball from guys who've been DFA'd, released or traded multiple times, so we're supposed to be upset by him trading away Lopez? Why do we suddenly think Cano can't be a 6th inning guy like Baker was or maybe better? Because he struggled in his first go around through the majors. Go look up Krehbiel's stats before this season.

Elias was able to improve the depth of the pitching in the system. If he gets one starter out of this he won. If ends up with a starter and a reliever, he really won.

Maybe also Elias learned something from last year's deadline when he was asking sky high prices for Scott and Fry. 3 weeks later Fry is in the minors and he wound up with only DR lottery ticket for him.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Bradford, Tate and Kremer graduated.

Huh? None of those guys were acquired by Elias.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Huh? None of those guys were acquired by Elias.

I think he means Bradish, so at least one of them was acquired by him.

[wildcard]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Huh? None of those guys were acquired by Elias.

Sorry, didn't know that was the criteria.  

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, we aren’t usually a good team.  We aren’t usually a team that has an actual future.  So, striking while the iron is hot has a different meaning when it comes to guys that can be really good and part of your contending team.

You don’t see me upset about Mancini.  I wanted Tate and Santander gone.  Would have been happy to trade Mullins.  
 

Hell, im not even against trading Lopez. Im against trading Lopez for this package or another similar Bundy-esque package.  I see people all giddy because we got 4 arms for a 30 year old reliever.  That evaluation is so bad.  
 

I fully acknowledge that I think the rankings for Povich are bs.  He didn’t pitch much, if at all, last year and the velocity jump is huge and the prospect reports probably just haven’t caught up.  I think you can argue that he should be in the 9-12 range in our system.  I’m fine with that.   I like what we have read about him.  I’m not doubting him or his talent.  I’m not doubting that Rojas has real upside or that Sano can’t develop out of nowhere.
 

But, for me, this still isn’t a package I move Lopez for, not right now.  

I haven't seen any post I would describe as giddy. The range has been from "hated it" to "lukewarm in favor" backed up with reasonable arguments.

[RarityFlaherty]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why do you see a big risk of injury? Has he had a big injury history?  Outside of the stuff with his son, did he miss any time here due to injury?  I don’t remember it but maybe?

BtW, I don’t mind the thought process that it’s not worth the risk.  It’s an argument I have made a lot.  That’s the difference of opinion here.

For me, for this particular deal and situation, the risk was worth it.  In other deals, I don’t see the risk as being worth it.

Like I said, I don’t think there’s big risk of injury. It’s just that the drop off from getting this deal to getting literally nothing in return feels like a lot to me. Povich seems like a solid piece. If he ends up being a starter on the major league team, we’ll look back at this trade and say we got good value regardless of what the other guys do. Everything is about risk/reward and I tend to be very risk adverse. 

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I haven't seen any post I would describe as giddy. The range has been from "hated it" to "lukewarm in favor" backed up with reasonable arguments.

I am giddy

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Like I said, I don’t think there’s big risk of injury. It’s just that the drop off from getting this deal to getting literally nothing in return feels like a lot to me. Povich seems like a solid piece. If he ends up being a starter on the major league team, we’ll look back at this trade and say we got good value regardless of what the other guys do. Everything is about risk/reward and I tend to be very risk adverse. 

Well, that depends.  If Lopez keeps pitching well (and btw, if he struggles in Minnesota, it doesn’t mean he would have here..it depends on why he struggles) and could have fetched more, maybe you end up with a better player than what Povich becomes.

[jerios55]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It is interesting to see Elias use the TOR statement to describe him. Elias has been pretty bland in his comments in the past about guys getting back, so for him to use that statement means something. 

If he ends up a mid-rotation guy Elias wins this trade but a TOR would be a major win for the scouting department. They need one after some of the guys they've received in trades have not exactly lit the world on fire with Vavra being the only guy in my top 20 from previous year's trades.

He says "front of rotation" not TOP.  I wonder if that's his way of saying 2-3 not a #1.  Idk, but I didn't read as tor, but it could mean nothing. 

[e16bball]

35 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It is interesting to see Elias use the TOR statement to describe him. Elias has been pretty bland in his comments in the past about guys getting back, so for him to use that statement means something.

This was my thought, as well. He usually plays it so close to the vest and is so painfully measured in his words that what he said about Povich was practically “gushing,” by Elias standards. 

It did cross my mind that he came into the August 3 presser with a clear desire to present as positive and optimistic, likely to offset some of the possible harm done to the fanbase (and clubhouse?) by the trades themselves and his prior comments about not believing in the WC hopes. Perhaps his effusive praise of Povich was part of that? Still though, the man could teach a masterclass in “managing expectations,” I strongly doubt he would have artificially inflated their perception of Povich just for the sake of blowing smoke up all our tailpipes. 

35 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

If he ends up a mid-rotation guy Elias wins this trade but a TOR would be a major win for the scouting department. They need one after some of the guys they've received in trades have not exactly lit the world on fire with Vavra being the only guy in my top 20 from previous year's trades.

Definitely a rough history with the prospects he’s received in trades. 

But in fairness to him, Givens is really the only *good* player he’s had the opportunity to put on the market, and he did manage to bring back Vavra in that deal. And even that trade was more akin to the Mancini situation, where it was a useful player that he pretty much had to move based on his contract status. 

He didn’t have to make this deal — he wanted to. That’s the part I find most intriguing, because until now he’s always been in “take the best package you can get for this guy because he’s got to go” mode. But this wasn’t that. As has been argued fervently on this forum and elsewhere, it would have been perfectly reasonable to keep Lopez. Knowing that he could have walked away, but still chose to seal the deal, is pretty intriguing confirmation that they really liked something (or some things) in that package.