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O's Fans Held Hostage - Day 18

bigbird

By bigbird
in Orioles Talk

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Its from Forbes. We don't know how much of YES is included. Lets say its not. In 2007 YES revenues were 340 million. The Yankees own 36% so thats 122 million. Lets guess costs were 42 million, which gives a net of 80 million. Add this to Yankees income(loss) of -47 million and you have 33 million. Orioles income was 8 million in 2007, add 26 million from MASN, and you have 34 mullion. Our payroll in 2007 was 93 million. We would break even at 127 million. Plenty of room for risk. The difference between our fast declining payroll and 127 million goes in Angelos pockets.

Well, profits are nice but the real number that matters to ownership would be team value. NYA would gladly loose $30mios on the books over the next five years if the team value improved by $100mios.

Also, we have no idea what liquidity is available to the various teams, how much is required on hand for various baseball operations, etc. Does BAL need additional liquidity as they expand their international pressence? I'd imagine they need more cash on hand to deal with potential added expenses associated with international facilities, player development, whatever. Does Forbes state how much cash each team has on hand?

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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I think there is enough evidence to say we could afford to spend more on rebuilding. Don't get hung up on Sheets, My point is there are free agents available this year that would constitute rebuilding. We are not pursuing them.

I think this is drastically over-simplifying matters. I'd also argue that Hendrickson and Izturis are useful free agents during a rebuild. There was a thread discussing "rebuilding through FA and future value" which is an interesting and appropriate method -- but Sheets is a fringy example of that and Dunn certainly doesn't qualify.

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cm31 A-Ball

cm31

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I don't think we need 3 starting pitchers and we don't neccessarily need a first baseman.

I've said it a million times now but Huff at 1st, Scott DH, Reimold LF. No need to waste a roster spot on a scrub like Casey or Hinske.

I'd be incredibly dissapointed if we signed 3 SP, especially since the guys we are targeting are Hendrickson, Redding, etc. Kawakami is the only pitcher we are targeting who is worth a crap, IMO.

I completely agree! Ecspecially since Casey and Hinske are both left handed hitters.

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Wind Rider Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Wind Rider

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I don't think we can get there rebuilding through the farm system. I'll give you the whole outfield, catching and Snyder. I think at best two of the young pitchers come through producing a 15 game winner and a 12 game winner. Use 2011 as the example. i don't think the resulting team is more than 82 wins at best.

My point we aren't targeting anyone worth while and we should be.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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I don't think we can get there rebuilding through the farm system. I'll give you the whole outfield, catching and Snyder. I think at best two of the young pitchers come through producing a 15 game winner and a 12 game winner. Use 2011 as the example. i don't think the resulting team is more than 82 wins at best.

My point we aren't targeting anyone worth while and we should be.

I don't think the everyday fan has any idea of who BAL is targeting.

2011? Roberts trade, sign Holliday/Lackey next year. If Markakis doesn't extend by next November, trade to ATL for stud package. That team is competitive in 2011. Catch some breaks and have some opportunities become available in the interim, you could compete in 2010.

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Wind Rider Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Wind Rider

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The one you suggested will do, does anybody on here run simulations.

I'm actually serious here, lets have an appropriate expert on here take the expected 2011 team, and run a simulation (or whatever is the best technique), and see how many games that team would have won in 2007.

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bej6789 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

bej6789

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I guess I might just be in the minority here, but I think the way this offseason is playing out is going to help the Orioles more than we think. Undoubtedly, I wanted Tex just as much as the next guy -- but that ship has sailed. With that being said, if the Orioles are a competitive team within the next 3 seasons, its because Matusz + Arietta + Tillman are all producing at the big league level. The hitting will come. There's plenty of it to go around. It's the pitching that will make or break this team. The Rays lineup 1-9 didn't feature a single hitter that approaches Markakis or Wieters in my opinion (outside of Longoria -- I don't believe Pena compares), it was their rotation that dominated and carried them with Kazmir, Shields etc. Any signing for next season that allows those pitchers in the minor leagues to get better is a necessary step to take. Whether that means signing a guy like Hendrickson for 1 year and a 5.00 ERA, then so be it. In terms of Kawi (I'm not going to try to spell his name), he fits the same mold in terms of this year -- only with the added ability to shift to the bullpen when the time is right. Oh yeah, he's also a direct link to our overseas scouting finally working. It's about time we land one. Just look at Iwamura in TB, ask Rays fans if he was a minor signing.

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