O's Fans Held Hostage - Day 18

[The Rick]

Oh damn, that's less exciting. I see it now though, the sentence just confused me. I don't really agree, he's only traded veterans for prospects and never the other way around, and we only have so many tradeable chips to move. The Bradford deal (so far) is the only outlier that was just a salary dump without any youth coming back, in my opinion.

I agree, and I think that rebuilding is synonymous with lowering payroll. I don't really see his point here.

[SrMeowMeow]

Regression analysis is a statistical tool used to develop mathematical models from a number of data points. In effect you are trying to find the line which goes through the data best. Obviously what MacPhail has done is not represented by mathematical points. I am saying that if you look at what he's done it matches the model of reducing payroll to increase income better than it fits the rebuilding model. Like regression analysis all you can say is it fits the data better, we don't know what his actual model is really. More data points will give more insight, but won't guarentee what they are doing.

This analysis seems like an...awkward fit at best with what's going on, especially because in pretty much every situation rebuilding includes reducing payroll and not necessarily the other way around.

[Wind Rider]

Rebuilding means we are filling positions of need(we have many) with qualty young playes who will be there a while. Positionally I count only Jones thus far.

The Bradford deal was disturbing, saying we can't afford individual players like TEX is even more so.

This year's take looks like a light hitting shortstop, a couple of very mediocre starting pitchers , Hinske, and a backup catcher. No rebuilding there at all.

[Sports Guy]

Well, heck, you thought the Bedard trade was a "whatever" move. No? I'd hardly think this would surpass that trade.

I never said the Bedard move was a whatever move but thanks for trying to put words into my mouth..you are really good at that.

[Sports Guy]

We did ok in the Ramon deal as long as Wieters sees Baltimore soon. Krivsky played a big part in brokering this deal and selected the prospects. I believe the one kid had a great AFL season. There were no other takers for Ramon and we needed to get on this asap or be left holing the sack. This was a good deal by the front office. We need a dozen more:D

At this point, since we know Wieters isn't likely to extend with us, we should keep him in the minors as long as we can to save the service time and prevent super 2 status.

[SrMeowMeow]

Rebuilding means we are filling positions of need(we have many) with qualty young playes who will be there a while. Positionally I count only Jones.

The Bradford deal was disturbing, saying we can't afford individual players like TEX is even more so.

This year's take looks like a light hitting shortstop, a couple of very mediocre starting pitchers , Hinske, and a backup catcher. No rebuilding there at all.

I don't see how not paying $180M is a disturbing sign of not rebuilding, and as much as I'd like to sign a couple top prospects off the free agent market, I don't really see that option. Who exactly would you suggest we trade for more players in Jones' tier?

[Wind Rider]

Votto, Vitters, Hardy etc. There are free agents like Dunn that fit the rebuilding model too.

[The Rick]

Votto, Vitters, Hardy etc. There are free agents like Dunn that fit the rebuilding model too.

Except their not free agents. And why rob Peter to pay Paul? The key in any acquisitions through trade is not to cut off your nose to spite your face. We can't deal young pitching to get young position players, because then we'll need more young pitching. It's like dogs chasing their tails.

[Crazysilver03]

I never said the Bedard move was a whatever move but thanks for trying to put words into my mouth..you are really good at that.

At this point, since we know Wieters isn't likely to extend with us, we should keep him in the minors as long as we can to save the service time and prevent super 2 status.

:scratchchinhmm:

We don't know anything in regards to Wieters extending or not. You can assume he won't, but we dont for sure.

I do agree with your conclusion though, but that is just for him to not get expensive as quick.

[Wind Rider]

For ten years we've had much higher draft picks than the Yankees and Boston, yet our farm teams finish much worse. We've been spectacularly bad at developing pitching. If all we are going to depend on our farm system only, we will never compete.

[Stotle]

Votto, Vitters, Hardy etc. There are free agents like Dunn that fit the rebuilding model too.

None of those three are likely available for what BAL is offering.

[Stotle]

For ten years we've had much higher draft picks than the Yankees and Boston, yet our farm teams finish much worse. We've been spectacularly bad at developing pitching. If all we are going to depend on our farm system only, we will never compete.

This isn't a true statement. Fact is, all three were neglecting the draft for a while, and BAL got back into the game after BOS.

[Wind Rider]

My point is we can do a better job of filling our needs, and that we don't appear to be moving in that direction.

[Crazysilver03]

For ten years we've had much higher draft picks than the Yankees and Boston, yet our farm teams finish much worse. We've been spectacularly bad at developing pitching. If all we are going to depend on our farm system only, we will never compete.

We are on par with the Red Sox system and better than the Yankee system.

[RShack]

Regression analysis is a statistical tool used to develop mathematical models from a number of data points. In effect you are trying to find the line which goes through the data best. Obviously what MacPhail has done is not represented by mathematical points. I am saying that if you look at what he's done it matches the model of reducing payroll to increase income better than it fits the rebuilding model. Like regression analysis all you can say is it fits the data better, we don't know what his actual model is really. More data points will give more insight, but won't guarentee what they are doing.

Of course that's true: You can lose salary fast, whereas adding talent takes either dev-time or adding established stars who ramp the payroll costs right back up.

Any GM who is gonna lose guys with fat contracts and be careful about adding talent will show the same result (unless they spend what they save by signing megabuck FA's right away).

Using regression analysis to reach a conclusion like that is like using a howitzer when all you need is a pea shooter.

However, saying "regression analysis" certainly sounds complicated and sophisticated, which is often good for intimidating people ;-)

ps: If you're trying to say regression analysis indicates that AM is trying to make money and fool the fans, well, you won't get away with it, so save your effort.

That kinda crap is misusing stats in a way that even non-stat people will see through in about 10 seconds.