Hays and Mountcastle are the Problem

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

If Elias thinks sending kids to Bowie last year to get some playoff run exposure is very valuable then it would be very valuable to bring up a lot of our kids and let them feel what it is like trying to get a playoff spot.  And maybe just maybe they give us a boost.   Machado sure did wonders for the defense in 2012.  And he actually held his own with the bat also at the age of 19.   We should not just give up on this season without firing all our bullets.

But that costs 40 man roster slots and starts service clocks.

He doesn't think it's that important.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

If Elias thinks sending kids to Bowie last year to get some playoff run exposure is very valuable then it would be very valuable to bring up a lot of our kids and let them feel what it is like trying to get a playoff spot.  And maybe just maybe they give us a boost.   Machado sure did wonders for the defense in 2012.  And he actually held his own with the bat also at the age of 19.   We should not just give up on this season without firing all our bullets.

I don’t think we have any ready to fire. Henderson’s K numbers that I saw at AAA are 1 out of 3 (83/247). I’d hate to damage him with a hasty call up. Stowers is 103/345 is nearly as bad!

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t think we have any ready to fire. Henderson’s K numbers that I saw at AAA are 1 out of 3 (83/247). I’d hate to damage him with a hasty call up. Stowers is 103/345 is nearly as bad!

Yea, those guys the Braves called up from AA looks shattered beyond repair.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

37 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Holly crap that is like having two Odors batting in the middle of your lineup.   

The Orioles have battled really well the second half of  the season considering two of their middle of the order bats are slumping plus the trades of Lopez & Mancini. 

At some point if the Orioles realistically expect to keep competing for the wildcard Hays/Mountcastle have to start hitting or start getting benched more often. 

Edited August 19, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Odor has been showing up to the tune of a 584 OPS over the last 28 days.

Urias has been showing up to the tune of a 606 OPS over the last 28 days. (last 14 and 7 day splits are even worse)

The delta between those numbers and the expectations for those players is much lower than it is for Mountcastle and Hays. 

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, Gurgi said:

If Elias thinks sending kids to Bowie last year to get some playoff run exposure is very valuable then it would be very valuable to bring up a lot of our kids and let them feel what it is like trying to get a playoff spot.  And maybe just maybe they give us a boost.   Machado sure did wonders for the defense in 2012.  And he actually held his own with the bat also at the age of 19.   We should not just give up on this season without firing all our bullets.

From your mouth to God's ears.  Fingers crossed.  This offense needs a jolt.  

[Hallas]

I think there is a bit of a broader discussion about having correct expectations for the different parts of this team.  I don't think it's a coincidence that this year, the first season playing in a stadium with drastically altered dimensions and by some measures moved the park effects from 3rd to about 27th, the pitching has overperformed while the hitting has underperformed even on park-adjusted stats.  I don't think the park effects are fully baked in yet (they typically rely on 3 year rolling averages and we don't have 3 years yet.)

 

The long and the short of it here is that I don't think we should be quite as worried about our offensive ineptness as the stats might indicate, because i don't think park effects are correctly reflecting the change.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The difference is the collective groupthink here at the hangout has decided that Mountcastle is the new punching bag.

Dude had an RBI hit today and someone took a shot at him.

And yet another walk, the thing he NEVER does

[BohKnowsBmore]

In defense of Mountcastle, two links...

His batted ball data from baseball savant:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-mountcastle-663624?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

His similarity scores from BB-REF (CTRL-F "Similarity Scores")
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mountry01.shtml

 

[Moose Milligan]

I’m sure Mountcastle’s batted ball data is great. 
 

The issue is, you know, batting the ball. 
 

Anyway, I don’t know if these two guys are THE problem but they certainly are a problem.  All hitters slump but their slumps seem to be extended. And their on base percentage suffers because they don’t walk. 
 

That’s the thing, if they walked a lot and didn’t swing at everything, their slumps probably aren’t as painful; they’d still be getting on base to a degree.  Right now they’re both pretty much automatic outs and nothing else. 

Edited August 19, 2022 by Moose Milligan

[JR Oriole]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, those guys the Braves called up from AA looks shattered beyond repair.

I live in Atlanta and I watch a ton of Braves games.  Definitely enjoying watching Harris and Grissom play.  If they were in the Os system, we wouldn't see them in the majors until 2026 due to some well crafted, combined excuse of service time, too many strike-outs, uniform doesn't seem to fit well around the crotch area, and just needs "more seasoning."

[DirtyBird]

9 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

They are a problem but the problem is the bottom of the lineup can't pick them up when they are slumping

Wait. What?

Urias carried us through a stretch. Mateo has been a key part of the lineup over the past two months. Odor has had clutch moments.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Hays is replaceable. Mountcastle is a bigger issue because we don't have an obvious successor in the pipeline. Both still have >100 OPS+ so they aren't terrible but it seems they are both disappearing at the same time when we need them to step up. 

Finding a first baseman/DH who can OPS 100-110 is one of the easier challenges for a GM.  If they wanted to.  Mountcastle isn't even arb eligible for another year, so carrying his 113 career OPS+ and letting him try to fix things isn't hurting much.

Hays needs to turn things around, obviously, but he's still on pace for a 2.5 win season or more. 

[Mooreisbetter27]

9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t think we have any ready to fire. Henderson’s K numbers that I saw at AAA are 1 out of 3 (83/247). I’d hate to damage him with a hasty call up. Stowers is 103/345 is nearly as bad.

Where are you getting your numbers from?  Henderson has only been at Norfolk part of this year.  He has 32 bb to 66 k's at Norfolk.  His entire minor league career is 140/275 bb/k.  So slightly less than 1/2 ra

Stowers is 57/136 in Norfolk.  His totality of his minor career is 138/328.  So it's closer to what you posted but still quite a bit off.

I'm a little baffled as to where you're getting these numbers.  

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Hallas said:

I think there is a bit of a broader discussion about having correct expectations for the different parts of this team.  I don't think it's a coincidence that this year, the first season playing in a stadium with drastically altered dimensions and by some measures moved the park effects from 3rd to about 27th, the pitching has overperformed while the hitting has underperformed even on park-adjusted stats.  I don't think the park effects are fully baked in yet (they typically rely on 3 year rolling averages and we don't have 3 years yet.)

 

The long and the short of it here is that I don't think we should be quite as worried about our offensive ineptness as the stats might indicate, because i don't think park effects are correctly reflecting the change.

The wall counts down on homers.  They could still be hitting a lot of doubles.  They could still have better averages, OBP, BB rates, etc…they could still be trying to do a better job of using all fields.