The Wild Card Race

[Roll Tide]

                         W - L                      GB 

Tampa           68 - 55                 

Toronto         67 - 55

Seattle          67 - 57

Orioles          64 - 59                 2.5 

Minnesota    62 - 60                  4

Chicago         63 - 61                  4

Tampa is hot….but 

So Tampa is currently streaking after playing poorly but there home record is 41 - 23 and the Orioles are 36 - 24.  So ther have 4 more homes games played. Conversely they are 5 (27 - 32) games under .500 on the road and we are 7 (28 - 35) under. So looking at the two teams we are in pretty good position as long as we continue to play well at home. If we win 3 out of the additional 4 home games and they continue the trend the difference is one game. Not counting my chickens but didn’t realize they had that many more games played at home. I didn’t see anything in the other matchups that were that lopsided. I know there is a thread that compares strength of schedule remaining. Also the Yankees are starting to play better so they could assist us against our division foes if that trend continues.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Roll Tide]

Wow …nobody had any interest in this? I think it’s a good situation to get us close to Tampa.

[RVAOsFan]

Tampa has also been doing this with a banged up roster, they are going to start getting healthy.  I think our best chance is to beat Toronto head to head.

[Roll Tide]

30 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Tampa has also been doing this with a banged up roster, they are going to start getting healthy.  I think our best chance is to beat Toronto head to head.

Yeah but the road record is still no better than ours. If they are able to reverse that trend due ti health fine. 

[Camden_yardbird]

The narrative nationally (I'm seeing it already) on this race is going to be that the Orioles had almost everything go right and just don't have enough.

In reality the Orioles probably had their two best pitchers go down with lengthy injuries.  Maybe if Rodriguez can come back they have a chance against Toronto?

[foxfield]

It is a steep hill in spite of how close the O's are.   The Orioles are on a pace to win 84.  That is still shocking to write and still 20 more wins needed to hit that number.

The Orioles look much closer than the math shows.  2.5 games out and no one in front of them.  They truly do control their own destiny.

But either the teams in front have to play worse and the Orioles have to play better....or the teams in front can play the same or better and the Orioles would have to play much better.

If you accept the magic number to be 87 to 89 wins for the three teams ahead of the Orioles...(at the rate they are currently playing) the Orioles have to win 88 games to catch someone.  

That is 24 wins for Baltimore to reach 88 wins and 25 for 89.  There are 39 games left.  That is .615 or better to close.  

It's not impossible, but the heralded pace since Adley came up is 48-35 over 83 games.  That is .578.

To make the playoffs the Orioles will need luck or another gear.  Both possible. But it is a tall order and I am trying to enjoy the experience and not get too caught up in the end.  Just win today and see where we stand tomorrow.

 

Edited August 25, 2022 by foxfield
Clarity

[RVAOsFan]

5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

It is a steep hill in spite of how close the O's are.   The Orioles are on a pace to win 84.  That is still shocking to write and still 20 more wins needed to hit that number.

The Orioles look much closer than the math shows.  2.5 games out and no one in front of them.  They truly do control their own destiny.

But either the teams in front have to play worse and the Orioles have to play better....or the the teams in front can play exactly the same ant the Orioles would have to play much better.

If you accept the magic number to be 87 to 89 wins for the three teams ahead of the Orioles...(at the rate they are currently playing) the Orioles have to win 88 games to catch someone.  

That is 24 wins for Baltimore to reach 88 wins and 25 for 89.  There are 39 games left.  That is .615 or better to close.  

It's not impossible, but the heralded pace since Adley came up is 48-35 over 83 games.  That is .578.

To make the playoffs the Orioles will need luck or another gear.  Both possible. But it is a tall order and I am trying to enjoy the experience and not get too caught up in the end.  Just win today and see where we stand tomorrow.

 

Great post! Win today! I think tomorrow would be a great day to add Gunnar and give the team a spark starting a series in Houston.

Maybe as a throw in to the Mancini trade Elias talked them into throwing us a game or two this weekend?  

[maybenxtyr]

13 minutes ago, foxfield said:

It is a steep hill in spite of how close the O's are.   The Orioles are on a pace to win 84.  That is still shocking to write and still 20 more wins needed to hit that number.

The Orioles look much closer than the math shows.  2.5 games out and no one in front of them.  They truly do control their own destiny.

But either the teams in front have to play worse and the Orioles have to play better....or the the teams in front can play exactly the same ant the Orioles would have to play much better.

If you accept the magic number to be 87 to 89 wins for the three teams ahead of the Orioles...(at the rate they are currently playing) the Orioles have to win 88 games to catch someone.  

That is 24 wins for Baltimore to reach 88 wins and 25 for 89.  There are 39 games left.  That is .615 or better to close.  

It's not impossible, but the heralded pace since Adley came up is 48-35 over 83 games.  That is .578.

To make the playoffs the Orioles will need luck or another gear.  Both possible. But it is a tall order and I am trying to enjoy the experience and not get too caught up in the end.  Just win today and see where we stand tomorrow.

 

You're correct. Everything they've accomplished tso far has been great, but the odds are against them now.

 

When they were rolling they were regularly 7-3 in 10 games...that seems unsustainable.

[foxfield]

39 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

You're correct. Everything they've accomplished tso far has been great, but the odds are against them now.

 

When they were rolling they were regularly 7-3 in 10 games...that seems unsustainable.

I don't know that I am completely ready to call it impossible.  I merely want everyone to understand that how tremendous it is to be here.  

If the Orioles win 84 games it will be an improvement of 32 wins over last year.  89 would be 37.  I know DurungoHazewood has posted a list of the best turnarounds in MLB history.  The Orioles are on a pace to make that list.

I don't mean to take away from us being fans and wanting the to maximize this chance.  But this is already pretty special and pretty unprecedented.  And it does not need a playoff birth to confirm that.  The Orioles already have candidates for ROY, MOY and GMOY.  IF the Orioles make the playoffs that likely brings Adley into the hunt for POY.

I am just thoroughly enjoying this season and cherish every single day the Orioles have to be talked about and because of that, it is pretty easy for me to not worry a whole lot over say....Odor in the lineup.  Im not justifying it.  Just saying that the view of this forest, in this season is fantabulous.  I don't want to miss it for the tree.

[Frobby]

Tampa is getting healthier and will play well down the stretch, I expect.   We need to worry about ourselves — 6-7 over our last 13 games.  We need to play .600 ball down the stretch if we want to make up the 2.5 game deficit.  

[maybenxtyr]

20 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I don't know that I am completely ready to call it impossible.  I merely want everyone to understand that how tremendous it is to be here.  

If the Orioles win 84 games it will be an improvement of 32 wins over last year.  89 would be 37.  I know DurungoHazewood has posted a list of the best turnarounds in MLB history.  The Orioles are on a pace to make that list.

I don't mean to take away from us being fans and wanting the to maximize this chance.  But this is already pretty special and pretty unprecedented.  And it does not need a playoff birth to confirm that.  The Orioles already have candidates for ROY, MOY and GMOY.  IF the Orioles make the playoffs that likely brings Adley into the hunt for POY.

I am just thoroughly enjoying this season and cherish every single day the Orioles have to be talked about and because of that, it is pretty easy for me to not worry a whole lot over say....Odor in the lineup.  Im not justifying it.  Just saying that the view of this forest, in this season is fantabulous.  I don't want to miss it for the tree.

I am too. I let myself get worked up worrying about call ups that I can't control. This has already been above and beyond any reasonable expectation.

[now]

I know folks (including me) are pinning hopes on help from the farm (Gunnar, GRod, Hall), but realistically how many rookies are there going to be on the roster? Already we have Rutschman, Bautista, Vavra, Stowers, Nevin, Bradish, Baker, Vespi, Krehbiel... which seems unprecedented. Normally I believe the turnover for a team is an average of two rookies per year!

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, now said:

I know folks (including me) are pinning hopes on help from the farm (Gunnar, GRod, Hall), but realistically how many rookies are there going to be on the roster? Already we have Rutschman, Bautista, Vavra, Stowers, Nevin, Bradish, Baker, Vespi, Krehbiel... which seems unprecedented. Normally I believe the turnover for a team is an average of two rookies per year!

Well no, the average team debuts 6-8 players a year.   How many stick long term is another question.  Rutschman and Bautista look like definites.  We’ll see how many of the other six are in the majors a couple of years from now.  

Just as an example, in 2015 255 players debuted in the majors, 8.5 per team.  Only 71 of those players have played a game in the majors this year, 2.36 per team.   Here’s the list: mhttps://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2015-debuts.shtml

[dtk9119]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Tampa is getting healthier and will play well down the stretch, I expect.   We need to worry about ourselves — 6-7 over our last 13 games.  We need to play .600 ball down the stretch if we want to make up the 2.5 game deficit.  

We are getting no help again today from the Angels, so TB will at minimum maintain a 4 game lead in the loss column (really 5 since we lost the tie breaker). At this point, TB is pretty much out of reach especially as they get healthier. The ONLY chance for the Orioles would be a collapse by Seattle (which is hard to imagine w/ their easy schedule) or them gaining ground head to head on the Blow Jays. First order of business is win tonight and pray for a 3-3 road trip. Come home and sweep OAK and at minimum take 3 of 4 from Blow Jays and see where we go from there. I've pretty much given up at this point, but we'll see what happens in the next 7 games. That will tell a lot.

[JR Oriole]

I am just glad that Tampa is about to be done with the Angels.  No more creampuffs on their schedule to abuse, save for two games in Miami next week and then 3 with Texas in mid-September.  They have 9 games left with Boston (who is much tougher in terms of talent than their record would indicate), 9 with Toronto, 6 with New York, 6 with Houston, and 3 at Cleveland.  

I think we will come up short this year, but that is really only because we got out of the gates so poorly.  And it seems like the teams we face have about 1 or 2 more guys in the lineup who can cause real damage than we do.