Jump to content

Running on contact

Pushmonkey

By Pushmonkey
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

Pushmonkey Veteran All-Star

Pushmonkey

Posted
Posted

It appears that the Os run into a lot of outs at the plate. The idea of running on contact is a horrible idea in this day and age.  Maybe just maybe if we have flash at third then you go but everyone on this team is not a super hero. This maddening idea drives me nuts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 33
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

now
now

It is infuriating to see this happen like three times in the past week. I think all with hard grounders to the left side. It seems partly a problem with the automatic send, and partly the hitting appr

Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

I don’t see the issue with AR holding up to see if the ball made it through. Now, he was quite a bit off third when the ball was hit. But if he makes the defender look him back to third, maybe th

Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

Because I’m willing to bet that there’s a better than 90% chance the runner is dead at the plate on that play they just nailed Adley on.  I don’t think that run scores very often.     If you wa

Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted

I would like to see the numbers on it. 1st and 3rd, seems like most likely outcome if you stay is 2nd and 3rd. Most likely outcome if you run is 1st and 3rd but you have a chance of scoring with 1st and 3rd, no out. Seems like the upside case is worth the risk. Bottom line you are better off with a sac fly!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

Posted
Posted

I don’t see the issue with AR holding up to see if the ball made it through. Now, he was quite a bit off third when the ball was hit.

But if he makes the defender look him back to third, maybe the worst thing is that he’s late on the throw to first and they’ve got the bases loaded. Or he makes the out at first and there’s still 2nd and 3rd. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don’t see the issue with AR holding up to see if the ball made it through. Now, he was quite a bit off third when the ball was hit.

But if he makes the defender look him back to third, maybe the worst thing is that he’s late on the throw to first and they’ve got the bases loaded. Or he makes the out at first and there’s still 2nd and 3rd. 

With none out I would agree but with 1 out you are giving up your chance to score. If you hold up and it doesn't get through, now you've got 2nd and 3rd with 2 out. If it gets through you score anyway so why wait?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

With none out I would agree but with 1 out you are giving up your chance to score. If you hold up and it doesn't get through, now you've got 2nd and 3rd with 2 out. If it gets through you score anyway so why wait?

Because I’m willing to bet that there’s a better than 90% chance the runner is dead at the plate on that play they just nailed Adley on.  I don’t think that run scores very often.  
 

If you want to send him on contact when the ball doesn’t get through on the off-chance the fielder makes a bad throw or the catcher can’t wrangle it in, fine. 

I’d rather have 2nd and 3rd with 2 out instead of 1st and 2nd with 2 out. I’ll take an extra 90 feet anytime, doesn’t really matter to me. 
 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
eddie83 Hangout Grand Counsel

eddie83

Posted
Posted
Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Because I’m willing to bet that there’s a better than 90% chance the runner is dead at the plate on that play they just nailed Adley on.  I don’t think that run scores very often.  
 

If you want to send him on contact when the ball doesn’t get through on the off-chance the fielder makes a bad throw or the catcher can’t wrangle it in, fine. 

I’d rather have 2nd and 3rd with 2 out instead of 1st and 2nd with 2 out. I’ll take an extra 90 feet anytime, doesn’t really matter to me. 
 

1st and 3rd. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Because I’m willing to bet that there’s a better than 90% chance the runner is dead at the plate on that play they just nailed Adley on.  I don’t think that run scores very often.  
 

If you want to send him on contact when the ball doesn’t get through on the off-chance the fielder makes a bad throw or the catcher can’t wrangle it in, fine. 

I’d rather have 2nd and 3rd with 2 out instead of 1st and 2nd with 2 out. I’ll take an extra 90 feet anytime, doesn’t really matter to me. 
 

The run expectency with 2nd and 3rd/2 out is about 0.1 higher vs 1st and 3rd/2 out, so 10% chance of scoring 1 run is a pretty even trade. On the off chance you score, you now have 1st and 3rd with 1 out and a great chance to pick up another run at least. I am also skeptical it fails 9 out of 10.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted

On the year, in 211 chances, the O’s have scored with a runner on 3B and less than two out 55.0% of the time, fifth in the league and better than league average 51.7%.   

They’ve made an out at home plate on a non-force play 15 times (16 now), which is fifth most in the league.  League average is 12.   

Overall, I’ll take the trade off.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • OsFanSinceThe80s
      Snell vs Burnes

      By OsFanSinceThe80s · Posted

      I also went with Burnes because of his better durability. Since 2019 Snell has pitched more then 128 innings in a season one time (180 innings in 2023). While Burnes has pitched over 167 inning or more every season since becoming a full time starter in 2021. Burnes is also two years younger so in theory while a six year contract is riskier it would end at the same age as Snell on a four year deal. I'd be happy with either one, but my preference in Burnes.
    • Aristotelian
      Snell vs Burnes

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      Adding that I would go for Roki over either of them.
    • Aristotelian
      Snell vs Burnes

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      I'd go for Snell. He has true Cy Young stuff. Burnes is really good but his K rate keeps dropping and the years scare me. The box score for his playoff start was solid but he actually gave up a lot of hard contact. I just don't trust him enough to commit all those years and dollars.
    • Spy Fox
      Snell vs Burnes

      By Spy Fox · Posted

      I go Burnes because to me the higher floor is very important with this sort of deal. I feel like Snell's skillset is more on a razor's edge-- if you didn't like how Burnes pitched in August, Snell is almost certainly more prone to stretches of poor performance like that. Even if he is more dominant at other times to balance it out. Plus, the extra length of Burnes' deal is offset a bit by being 2 years younger. 
    • oriolediehard
      Snell vs Burnes

      By oriolediehard · Posted

      Snell is injury prone and Burnes is a tough workhorse.
    • Can_of_corn
      Other teams playoffs game thread

      By Can_of_corn · Posted

      Didn't see the video? The ball went maybe 15 feet before it bounced, it was rolling by the dugout.  It was nothing and the Dodgers look soft. Was he supposed to let the discarded ball stay on the field?
    • Just Regular
      Other teams playoffs game thread

      By Just Regular · Posted

      Rojas pulled from the bases in the 3rd inning after he couldn't manage 2nd to home on a Mookie single (and Ohtani couldn't 1st to 3rd behind him) as the Dodgers try to dig out of 6-1.    Rojas' limited mobility hurt the Dodgers defense on a Bogaerts ground ball where Merrill was too quick going first to second, and Rojas ended up getting no outs on a routine ground ball. Manny with a cagey zigzag baserunning move during the Padres 6-run inning off Buehler, getting into Freeman's throwing lane to put Buehler into the jam. Teoscar grand slam brings it back to 6-5 in the 3rd inning...get your popcorn ready.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...