Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[orioles22]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let’s say Mateo is Belanger and Henderson is Ripken.  Which one would you play?   Henderson, obviously.   Of course the defense would be downgraded, but the offensive upgrade would make up for it easily.  

But that’s not really the question.  Henderson’s going to play either SS or 3B.   Mateo is either going to play SS or be traded, IMO.   
 

Great question, and I agree with your second paragraph.

I think the plan originally was for Ripken to play third. Belanger was gone though, after the 81 season and Ripken was the best solution. I think if both players were at their peak though, Ripken plays third and Belanger is at short. That is, of course, assuming Robinson isn't still at third.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, terpoh said:

Thats a crazy stat wow. How much of that do you believe is attributed to differences in pitching/style of play/era vs Brooks just getting to 200 more baseballs?

Probably a lot of it is more strikeouts and fly outs now compared to Brooks’ heyday.  But I’m sure there’s still a big difference.  

[Pickles]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Palmer is great but he likes to embellish the accomplishments of Os players at times.

Mateo is playing high level defense but there are 6 or 7 SS this season with a better OAA.

I refuse to believe there are 6-7 shortstops who have been more valuable defensively than Jorge Mateo this year.

[Pickles]

12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

A 5'10 1B doesn't make that play but I'd still take a slick fielding 5'10 guy if we had one.

Sure, it's kind of a silly premise tbh.

It's like saying, sure the 6'2" 220 lb guy is likely to have more power, but I'd take the 4'10" 115 lb guy if he hits for more power.

Well, sure, of course you would.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

Great question, and I agree with your second paragraph.

I think the plan originally was for Ripken to play third. Belanger was gone though, after the 81 season and Ripken was the best solution. I think if both players were at their peak though, Ripken plays third and Belanger is at short. That is, of course, assuming Robinson isn't still at third.

My only point was if you had a binary choice of Belanger vs. Ripken (or Mateo vs. Henderson), you choose the better all-around player, not the better defender, even though defense at SS is very important.   But this isn’t a time of binary choices for us.  We have a myriad of options, including playing Mateo at SS and Henderson at 3B.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I refuse to believe there are 6-7 shortstops who have been more valuable defensively than Jorge Mateo this year.

Actually, Mateo is tied for 4th in OAA, at +9.   Dansby Swanson (+17), Francisco Lindor (+13) and Nico Hoerner (+13) are ahead of him.  Although Mateo has great range and a great arm, he’s made more errors (17) than any of those three (8, 9 and 12, respectively).   Obviously, every error is basically one less out above average.  

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Sure, it's kind of a silly premise tbh.

It's like saying, sure the 6'2" 220 lb guy is likely to have more power, but I'd take the 4'10" 115 lb guy if he hits for more power.

Well, sure, of course you would.

No it’s not. The taller 1B definitely has some advantages over a shorter guy.  However if you can take a natural 2B or SS who provides more range and better hands that more than makes up for the size disadvantage, IMO.

Lets take Westburg, who is about the same height as Mountcastle.  I believe he would likely be a superior defensive 1B because he’s got the size and the superior range, hands, arm, and athleticism over Mountcastle.  Mountcastle is a good scooper but show me one 1B who has experience at 1B who is not a good scooper.

[Aristotelian]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mateo is either going to play SS or be traded, IMO.   
 

Mateo definitely has the most long term value at SS. Then again, so does Gunnar. If the goal is to maximize wins (not value of each individual player) I could see a role for Mateo where he is an extremely valuable bench player. I kind of like the idea of having a bunch of versatile guys that can be moved around depending on game situation, and Mateo could fit into that. Pinch run at the first opportunity, come in at SS whenever we get the lead, maybe start at 2B or SS when we are trying to stack RHB vs LHP, etc. He would give us the ability to maximize the production of everyone else even if Gunnar is the starting SS.

I think most likely option is Gunnar 3B with Mateo SS until Holiday is ready, but there are lots of options to consider. Will be fun to see how both Elias and Hyde play it. I'm sure there will be second guessing with every lineup. I don't want to trade any of them unless we get good value back. 

[RZNJ]

Let’s think outside the box.  Without the shift you want as much range as possible on the right side of the infield.  “Traditionally”, you take the guy who can’t play anywhere else (Mountcastle/Aguilar/Mancini) and stick him there (1B) to get his bat in the lineup.  But, what if you have really good depth in the middle IF?  What if you had power hitting 2B and SS but not enough spots for them.  Wouldn’t you be gaining an advantage on other teams if you had a 1B who could hit like a 1B but field like a 2B/SS?

[Sports Guy]

37 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I refuse to believe there are 6-7 shortstops who have been more valuable defensively than Jorge Mateo this year.

Of course you do.

[Can_of_corn]

38 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I refuse to believe there are 6-7 shortstops who have been more valuable defensively than Jorge Mateo this year.

Do you watch the other shortstops play on a regular basis?

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Actually, Mateo is tied for 4th in OAA, at +9.   Dansby Swanson (+17), Francisco Lindor (+13) and Nico Hoerner (+13) are ahead of him.  Although Mateo has great range and a great arm, he’s made more errors (17) than any of those three (8, 9 and 12, respectively).   Obviously, every error is basically one less out above average.  

I see 7th here?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=6&roles=&viz=hide

Either way, the point is Mateo isn’t even playing SS at the highest level in the majors this year. Palmer is just exaggerating. 

[Tony-OH]

47 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I refuse to believe there are 6-7 shortstops who have been more valuable defensively than Jorge Mateo this year.

Playing just in the shortstops positions (meaning when he plays on the left side of second base, Mateo is ranked 5th in the majors league at SS with 7 OAA.

He is however the top AL shortstop. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=64,62,60,61&viz=hide

 

 

[Tony-OH]

By the way, Mountcastle has a 2 OAA rating now making him tied for the 6th best defensive first baseman. I do not believe scooping and stretch out for a ball is taken into consideration into these ratings though.

Looking around the major leagues, most teams have tall first baseman. But the Dodgers played a long time with 5-10 Steve Garvey at firstbase, so it can be done it's just not optimal.

I honestly wonder if the Orioles or anyone else has done a study on the height of first baseman and how much scooping, stretching out for balls and collecting errant throws can be contributed to having a tall, long arm guy out there vs a short guy. Not even sure how you would do the stretch out and collecting errant throws and determining that the height and arm length would matter.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, terpoh said:

Thats a crazy stat wow. How much of that do you believe is attributed to differences in pitching/style of play/era vs Brooks just getting to 200 more baseballs?

I'm sure a lot of it is opportunity.  In Reynolds' time the strikeout rate was about two per game higher.  I'm guessing the GB/FB ratio was lower.  Some might be differences in pitching staff handedness and ground ball tendencies.  But some of it is clearly ability.

This year the Cardinals 3B (primarily Arenado) have 498 chances, but the Mets (mostly Eduardo Escobar) 353. OAA has Escobar as -6, Arenado as +14.

So I'm reasonably confident that the difference in range between two first basemen could be 50 plays a season or more.