Gunnar vs. Adley

[Frobby]

From a Ben Clemens chat:

O’s 2024: Would you rather build a team around Gunnar or Adley? (love that both of them can go by first name only)

Ben Clemens: Adley for me

Ben Clemens: Gunnar is a great prospect, of course. I think Rutschman is on the ‘once in a generation catcher’ side of things, though, whereas Henderson is a nice hitter with defensive value

——-

I agree with this assessment.   I think Gunnar may have a higher ceiling with the bat, but Adley just has a combination of skills you don’t see every day.   It’s hard for me to imagine him going through a healthy season and putting  less than 5 rWAR even in a down year, and I thibk his up years (maybe even next year) are going to be north of 8 rWAR.

Anyway, I’m glad we don’t have to choose.  

[MarCakes21]

I concur.  I would temper expectations, for 8 WAR, but even in a rookie year where he could produce 5.4 WAR in 2/3 of the total games, tough not to be excited.

I think the bigger part, which is kind of stated above, is there's so much excess value in the catcher.  8 WAR means for the next couple years, we're getting somewhere around 50mil in excess value.  I just don't think that's something Henderson could produce at SS unless he becomes a Trout like hitter.

[Can_of_corn]

The only issue for me is that Adley is three years older.

But if you are just looking at the years in which the team has control that isn't a concern.

[MarCakes21]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The only issue for me is that Adley is three years older.

But if you are just looking at the years in which the team has control that isn't a concern.

Yea, that's only a problem for the cost to lock them up at the given age once they hit FA.  Henderson you'd be locking up in his prime, Adley you'd be locking up on a potential downhill.

For value though, I'd imagine you're more likely to get peak Adley value than Henderson.

[wildcard]

Why pick between them.   Build around both of them.

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why pick between them.   Build around both of them.

+1, not sure why this is a question.

Gun to my head, I'd go with Adley. He has the 1/1 pedigree and plays elite level C, a difficult position to fill. Fortunately we have a great group of young players and prospects so we can build around both plus more to come. 

[LookinUp]

I'd sign them both next year. Goal needs to be something like 10 more years with Gunnar. 7-8 with Adley.

Give or take. But there'd be no doubt they are cornerstones if I was the owner.

[MCO'sFan]

I am glad we don't have to choose at least not now anyway.  I would also go with Adley for the intangibles.

[Just Regular]

Who is going to earn more Orioles $$$ the next 5 seasons?    I am blanking if Manny ever kvetched when his contract was renewed.    Both Gunnar and Adley should benefit substantially from whatever (big) share of the pre-arb pools of money they get.

Its Adley for me too.    I'll grant its residual pedigree snobbery, but the Gunnar 2022 has a little of the Mullins-Mateo aspect to it.    Can he repeat?     Adley I feel more secure this is his "true talent".

[Pickles]

Coming in to this season most people it seemed were expecting GG defense and an 800+ OPS from Adley, and I tried to temper expectations, pointing out that if he did that for a decade he'd be a hall of famer.

Well he did just that, and then some, and he looks exactly like a "one in a generation" catcher, so he'd be my choice.  Gunnar looks like a fine prospect, but he doesn't look one in a generation.

[Moose Milligan]

Adley, no doubt about it.

 

[Orioles Jim]

So, I was always of the opinion that Rutschman > Witt and at this point, I don’t think I’m being an insane homer to say I’d go Henderson over Witt as well.

Beyond that though, I’d go Rutschman for the same reasons I said Rutschman over Witt earlier in the season.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

So, I was always of the opinion that Rutschman > Witt and at this point, I don’t think I’m being an insane homer to say I’d go Henderson over Witt as well.

Beyond that though, I’d go Rutschman for the same reasons I said Rutschman over Witt earlier in the season.

Henderson .8 rWAR/32 games.

Witt 1.0 rWAR/149 games.

I don't think you're an insane homer.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Coming in to this season most people it seemed were expecting GG defense and an 800+ OPS from Adley, and I tried to temper expectations, pointing out that if he did that for a decade he'd be a hall of famer.

Well he did just that, and then some, and he looks exactly like a "one in a generation" catcher, so he'd be my choice.  Gunnar looks like a fine prospect, but he doesn't look one in a generation.

I’d say it’s a little early to say that Gunnar isn’t. He’s been worth almost a full win in his first month in the majors. Certainly more great SS’ than C’s, but Gunnar seems to have at least MVP potential.
 

Still would take Adley between the two.

[survivedc]

4 minutes ago, survivedc said:

I’d say it’s a little early to say that Gunnar isn’t. He’s been worth almost a full win in his first month in the majors. Certainly more great SS’ than C’s, but Gunnar seems to have at least MVP potential.
 

Still would take Adley between the two.

Interesting that a SS hasn’t won the award since Jimmy Rollins in 2007. 2 2B’s and 4 3B’s have in the meantime.