Fangraphs’ top 50 free agents, with contract predictions

[Just Regular]

For Ramon Urias trade market at 3B, Justin Turner is the only guy in the list who is primarily 3B.

Profar and Drury can go there some, and you probably don't want to begin your woo of Xander with any of that kind of nonsense.    Profar has zero appearances there last two years though as Manny teammate.    Drury was mid-pack with the glove by OAA - his baseball life feels Ramon Urias-adjacent.    The guessers think Drury is $10mm, Urias will play 2023 for near the minimum - those two data points match respectably BTV's guess Urias around $11mm in surplus value, though his Arb years may give a little more if he sustains as an okay regular.

Turner's free agency is kind of a Mini-Me to Kershaw's in terms of Club and Player having a strong relationship.   Arenado opting in helps Urias get towards the top of anyone's options list sooner rather than later.

Straight up player quality, the teams that want Drury might also want Urias...are any of them pinching pennies?

After tanking it still feels weird, but I am letting it settle that an Okay MLB Option like '23 Urias might also intersect with being "not good enough" for the '23 Orioles.     This exercise is much easier in the Odor-Lyles range of player.

[Sports Guy]

1/10 is about what I have said for Brantley.  He’d be on my radar as well.  Risky signing signing for sure but could pay off big.

[tntoriole]

Bassett, Senga, Abreu.. or Verlander and Abreu

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

1/10 is about what I have said for Brantley.  He’d be on my radar as well.  Risky signing signing for sure but could pay off big.

I like Brantley too, but the dude has had serious injury issues. I’m pretty sure HOU traded for him while Elias was there. I also don’t see how he gets less than Mancini. Abreu is just exactly what we need. Plug and play RH bat at DH/1B. Pay premium money, for premium talent. He’s healthy. 
 

Overall, I’m glad to see this list because I thought we were going to be limited to 3/50 deal for Abreu or going less for Mancini, Candeleiro, and Aguilar. I just think Abreu is the perfect fit for us. Plug him in behind Mullins, AR, Gunnar, and let him hit .300(no shift), 20ish HR, and and I bet he rakes in the RBI. 
 

Here’s how I view the offseason…

We’d be ok with Lyles and Aguilar. 
 

I’d be happy with Lyles and Mancini. 
 

I’d be thrilled with Lyles and Abreu. 
 

Let’s chase down the division with a Lyles upgraded and Abreu. 

[Aristotelian]

47 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

I’d be thrilled with Lyles and Abreu. 
 

Let’s chase down the division with a Lyles upgraded and Abreu. 

You'd be thrilled with Lyles?

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You'd be thrilled with Lyles?

Yes. Because of the Abreu part. I like our rotation. Look at the ERA+ in the 2nd half. Kremer and Bradish are so underrated on here. Voth is the most underrated and everyone hates on Watkins but he literally was Chris Archer last season. I’ll take that as a #6 SP. 
 

I like our rotation depth. GR, Bradish, Kremer, Lyles, Voth. Watkins as the #6. Wells?  Means at some point. “What if” on Hall. That’s 8 SP options. Add in two milb depth vet signings and we have the depth to get us to the deadline. I’m not about trading and selling early for a Pablo Lopez type. I say play it out and go big at the deadline. 

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yes. Because of the Abreu part. I like our rotation. Look at the ERA+ in the 2nd half. Kremer and Bradish are so underrated on here. Voth is the most underrated and everyone hates on Watkins but he literally was Chris Archer last season. I’ll take that as a #6 SP. 
 

I like our rotation depth. GR, Bradish, Kremer, Lyles, Voth. Watkins as the #6. Wells?  Means at some point. “What if” on Hall. That’s 8 SP options. Add in two milb depth vet signings and we have the depth to get us to the deadline. I’m not about trading and selling early for a Pablo Lopez type. I say play it out and go big at the deadline. 

Assuming a $10m arbitration/option raises would bring out floor payroll to about $53m.  Add $18m for Abreu.  So, we're in the $70-75m ballpark total.  That's easily bottom 10.  This is the one year we can throw some money around to buy wins AND the FA aligns with our needs.

Sorry, I'm not happy with that.  Even considering the family legal issues.  It's not a commitment to win.

Comparing Watkins with Archer as the #6 is uninspiring.  Neither move the needle for rotation depth for a contending team.  

Heading into the playoffs, we would have Means (assuming recovery) as the only one I would consider a valid option (at this point).  The rest have question marks or are non-starters in a short series, even Lyles.  I'd rather go into the season with a few more answers for the playoff questions.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Assuming a $10m arbitration/option raises would bring out floor payroll to about $53m.  Add $18m for Abreu.  So, we're in the $70-75m ballpark total.  That's easily bottom 10.  This is the one year we can throw some money around to buy wins AND the FA aligns with our needs.

Sorry, I'm not happy with that.  Even considering the family legal issues.  It's not a commitment to win.

Comparing Watkins with Archer as the #6 is uninspiring.  Neither move the needle for rotation depth for a contending team.  

Heading into the playoffs, we would have Means (assuming recovery) as the only one I would consider a valid option (at this point).  The rest have question marks or are non-starters in a short series, even Lyles.  I'd rather go into the season with a few more answers for the playoff questions.

I expect them to do more than Abreu/Lyles.   I agree that’s insufficient on the pitching side.   

[wildcard]

Abreu  2/36  -  I think the O's would do that but probably so will the White Sox and Padres.

Bassitt 3/51 -  Yes, the O's will be in on him.

Anderson 2/30 Yes.  3 years? No way.

Perez 2/30 Yes.  3 years.  No

Syndergaard 2/24-28.  Yes if Holt thinks he can fix him.

Wacha   2/20  Maybe

Pederson -  I am cooling on him.

I don't see the O's going 3 years on any pitcher other than Bassitt.

If the O's sign one starter I think they will be done.

Adley's 860 OPS in the 2nd half means to me that the DH  that the O's may  add has to hit lefties.

[Just Regular]

I believe Thursday 11/10 is go day.

An accidental byproduct of the lockout was the NBA-style excitement (MLB wants that, I believe) of the late November and mid-March transactions bonanzas.

It won't unfold that fast again, but I am curious to see if there's any kind of residual champagne cork popping in the first 24-48 hours.     All 30 GM's evaluating the same isn't exactly the new collusion, but the world's Trey Mancini's probably can't game the market very much these days.

I believe it would probably grow the product if MLB artificially introduced transaction windows across the offseason.   Just concede football is dominating you Thursday-Monday in the winter.      Next 10 weeks, just say something like transactions can only complete on Wednesdays in USA Prime Time or some such.     

[Aristotelian]

47 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yes. Because of the Abreu part. I like our rotation. Look at the ERA+ in the 2nd half. Kremer and Bradish are so underrated on here. Voth is the most underrated and everyone hates on Watkins but he literally was Chris Archer last season. I’ll take that as a #6 SP. 
 

I like our rotation depth. GR, Bradish, Kremer, Lyles, Voth. Watkins as the #6. Wells?  Means at some point. “What if” on Hall. That’s 8 SP options. Add in two milb depth vet signings and we have the depth to get us to the deadline. I’m not about trading and selling early for a Pablo Lopez type. I say play it out and go big at the deadline. 

What does Abreu have to do with Lyles?

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I believe Thursday 11/10 is go day.

Per SteveA, it’s Saturday Nov. 12.

[MarCakes21]

ESPN has theirs up:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34971864/2022-23-mlb-offseason-free-agent-contract-predictions-rankings

Some key names:
deGrom: 3/$132

Rodon: 5/$130

Nimmo: 5/$118

Senga: 5/$72

Abreu: 2/$46

Bassitt: 3/$53

Stripling: 3/$36

Anderson: 2/$33

Eovaldi: 2/$30

Taillon: 2/$30

If it's my money and team, I'm in on Rodon, Senga, Bassitt, Eovaldi, Tailon for those prices.

Edited November 9, 2022 by MarCakes21
left off Abreu

[sevastras]

11. Kershaw 1/$20mm

If some way some how Kershaw wanted to play another year and the Dodgers didn’t want him back, I would jump all over him. He may only give you 120ish innings, but they are quality and he is a HOF veteran. The kids might benefit from his wisdom and you aren’t going to be hamstrung by him even if he can’t stay healthy. Hell, the $20mm would be worth it just to have him in the dugout every day giving advice and knowledge. 
Feel the same about Verlander, though it may cost quite a bit more. 

[Just Regular]

The bottom of ESPN KIley McDaniel's list gave more praise than I would have guessed to Nick Martinez and Michael Lorenzen, as other back rotation possibilities.      Kiley's AAV guesses for all the Jordan Lyles or better types ran:

16 - Bassitt, Syndergaard, Ty. Anderson

15 - Manaea, Taillon, Taijuan

14 - Eovaldi, Senga, Quintana

13 - Eflin, Kluber

12 - Lorenzen, M. Perez, Stripling

10 - Heaney

8 - N. Martinez

The Manaea 15, Senga 14 is skewed by his guess Manaea wants a 1-year, make good vs. Senga rating a 5-year term like Rodon.    Manaea enjoys the extra cash for the shorter term there.

Lyles along with many others (Wacha, Carrasco, K. Gibson, Clevinger, Cueto) are implied less than 8, as 1/8 type contracts got Kiley's 50th place.

Kiley also predicting lean times for aging Bats - Trey Mancini, JD Martinez and Mitch Haniger I didn't notice anywhere in my first skim through.