FA Target - Jameson Taillon

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

That is best case.   I don't expect 3.00 ERA.   But the O's will have better depth this year so they don't have to begin the season with Zimmermann in the rotation.

The O's dropping a full run off of their team ERA the season after dropping almost two runs off their team ERA despite minimal changes in personal is not in any way reasonable.

Some of these guys, maybe most of them are going to regress.  For one thing they don't strike enough guys out.

[Sports Guy]

100 innings isn’t best case for GRod..but basically everything WC is saying is best case..and it’s very silly.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

100 innings isn’t best case for GRod..but basically everything WC is saying is best case..and it’s very silly.

We will see who is silly.  Time will tell.  I think expecting the O's to sign a TOR starter is expecting way too much.

Edited November 12, 2022 by wildcard

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We will see who is silly.  Time will tell.  I think expecting the O's to sign a TOR starter is expecting way too much.

I do agree with that.

I think Elias signs a 3/4 and a 4/5 and talks them up.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We will see who is silly.  Time will tell.  I think expecting the O's to sign a TOR starter is expecting way too much.

I don’t disagree with you.

That has nothing to do with your over the top predictions though.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Oh, so Grayson only pitching 100 IP is best case.   Means only pitching 70 IP is best base.   No one having a better ERA then they had last year is a best case.    I don't think so.

I didn’t say “best case.”  I said “everything goes right.”   There’s a difference.  I do hope some players will do even better than you said.

To be clear, I will be pleasantly surprised if the O’s acquire a true TOR starter.  I’m not saying that’s likely.  I’m just saying it’s highly unlikely that the O’s will be a top 3 pitching staff next year without acquiring one.  We don’t necessarily have to have a top 3 pitching staff be be a contender in 2023, either.   

[orioles119]

Sign Taillon after trading for Bieber.

[Oriole1940]

This is the time of year that hope springs eternal, but that hope must be tempered with a strong dose of reality.  The reality is that to reach some of the optimistically low ERAs tossed around here,  I would think not 1 but 2 real MLB starting pitchers need to be acquired.  No for sure thing even there, but good enough odds for a sober person to have real hope that in addition, 1 or 2 of in house Pitchers come around too.    

[OriolesMagic83]

23 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think your true TOR starter for the O's is a fantasy if you think he will be a acquistion.    Kremer 3.23 will go deeper in games.  Bradish continues his 3.28 from the 2nd half.  Grayson puts up a 3.50 for 100 IP.  Voth continues his 3.04 ERA for 130 IP.  Means return for 70 IP with a 3.81 ERA.   Elias adds a starter who pitches  150 innings in the 3.50-3.70 area.   Hall starts at AAA,  gets his act together and comes to the majors pitching 130 IP  over all under 4.00.    Watkins begins in the minors and fills in the rotation as needed at the 4.17 ERA as he did as a starter last season.

Bradish at 175 IP at a 3.28 ERA will be as close to a TOR starter as the O's will need.

What the O's have this year that they didn't last year is pitching depth.   The Yankees were  3rd in the AL with a 3.51 starter ERA and I think the O's can match that in 2023.

ERA is so variable from year to year, I think it's unreasonable to expect the same results year to year.  I think Voth got lucky and Hyde seemed to pull him most times before he imploded.  Bradish is the only returnimg starter I expect to improve.   Means when he comes back could be rusty.  Don't expect him to pitch like the O's ace from his first start back.

[wildcard]

54 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

ERA is so variable from year to year, I think it's unreasonable to expect the same results year to year.  I think Voth got lucky and Hyde seemed to pull him most times before he imploded.  Bradish is the only returnimg starter I expect to improve.   Means when he comes back could be rusty.  Don't expect him to pitch like the O's ace from his first start back.

I agree they could be better or worse.   Just don't assume they will be worse.  I didn't include Tyler Wells who will probably be stretched out in ST and go to the pen in not needed in the rotation.

[Jim'sKid26]

Many of these FA pitchers may regress as well. Most are past their prime years and several have a lot of wear and tear on their arms. That includes the top guys, as has been discussed on here already. 

The bull pen needs to pitch less innings.

The starters need to go deeper into games, especially those guys in the top 3 slots.

It may make a lot of sense to stockpile several guys like Voth, Akin and Wells, who can come out of the pen and throw multiple innings. Early in the season those guys can be worth their weight in gold.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree they could be better or worse.   Just don't assume they will be worse.  I didn't include Tyler Wells who will probably be stretched out in ST and go to the pen in not needed in the rotation.

I’m concerned about the fact that Kremer had an xERA of 4.46, compared to his 3.23 ERA.   I think he’ll be a solid starter, but he’s a prime candidate for ERA regression.   I also think it’s optimistic to ignore Bradish’s first-half ERA and only assume his second half ERA will be continued.   

To be clear, I like both pitchers.  I’m hopeful we can get a sub-4.00 ERA from both.  I think expecting 3.25 from them is unrealistic.  FWIW, Steamer projects Bradish at 4.11 and Kremer at 4.51.   I don’t put too much stock in those, but they show just how optimistic your projections are.  
 

 

[Frobby]

So, at least one MLBTR pundit picked the O's to get Jameson Taillon (projected at 4/$56), Taijuan Walker (4/$52 mm) or Sean Manaea (4/$52).  Assuming we had to get one of those pitchers at those prices, which would you prefer?

Taillon: Age 31 in 2023, drafted 1:2 in 2010.   For his career he has a 107 ERA+ in 787.2 innings, 1.212 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.7 K/BB.   In 2022 he had a 100 ERA+ in 177.1 innings, 1.128 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.7 K/BB.  He's thrown enough innings to qualify twice in his career.

Walker: Age 30 in 2023, drafted 1:43 in 2010.  For his career he has a 105 ERA+ in 898.0 innings, 1.226 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.8 K/BB.  In 2022 he had a 111 ERA+ in 157.1 IP, 1.195 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB.   He's thrown enough innings to qualify once in his carerr, throwing 157+ three other times.

Manaea: Age 31 in 2023, drafted 1:34 in 2013.  For his career he has a 100 ERA+ in 885.0 innings, 1.220 WHIP, 8.1 K/BB, 3.5 K/BB.  In 2022 he had a 75 ERA+ in 158.0 innings, 1.297 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.8 K/BB.   He's thrown enough innings to qualify once, and had been at 158+ three other times.   

I must say, their careers are very similar, putting aside that Manaea had a poor ERA in 2022.  For that reason, I suspect he won't actually get the contract MLBTR projects for him.  

I'd probably go with Walker if these were my options and I had to take one.  

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Frobby

[RZNJ]

I'll go with Taillon.  Manea seems to have the most bust potential.  Saw him late in the year last year and he looked awful.  I know, SSS.  Taillon has been pretty consistent in his career.  It's just the TJ surgery in 2019 (his second) and the missed time.   I don't want to use the word "guarantee" but he's a good bet to be about a 2 WAR pitcher but he's also been a 3 to 3.9 WAR pitcher as well.   He's still relatively young.  His fastball velocity is still good (94+) and his RPM are supposedly very good on his curve and slider.   I think he's a guy who might even take a step forward going into his next few years.   Walker would be my second choice but I don't trust him as much as Taillon.   I think Taillon is safer with a chance to be much better.

[clapdiddy]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, at least one MLBTR pundit picked the O's to get Jameson Taillon (projected at 4/$56), Taijuan Walker (4/$52 mm) or Sean Manaea (4/$52).  Assuming we had to get one of those pitchers at those prices, which would you prefer?

Taillon: Age 31 in 2023, drafted 1:2 in 2010.   For his career he has a 107 ERA+ in 787.2 innings, 1.212 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.7 K/BB.   In 2022 he had a 100 ERA+ in 177.1 innings, 1.128 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.7 K/BB.  He's thrown enough innings to qualify twice in his career.

Walker: Age 30 in 2023, drafted 1:43 in 2010.  For his career he has a 105 ERA+ in 898.0 innings, 1.226 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.8 K/BB.  In 2022 he had a 111 ERA+ in 157.1 IP, 1.195 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB.   He's thrown enough innings to qualify once in his carerr, throwing 157+ three other times.

Manaea: Age 31 in 2023, drafted 1:34 in 2013.  For his career he has a 100 ERA+ in 885.0 innings, 1.220 WHIP, 8.1 K/BB, 3.5 K/BB.  In 2022 he had a 75 ERA+ in 158.0 innings, 1.297 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.8 K/BB.   He's thrown enough innings to qualify once, and had been at 158+ three other times.   

I must say, their careers are very similar, putting aside that Manaea had a poor ERA in 2022.  For that reason, I suspect he won't actually get the contract MLBTR projects for him.  

I'd probably go with Walker if these were my options and I had to take one.  

 

I'm with you on that, Frobby.  For me, out of these 3, Walker seems to be the best fit.  I'd be fine with Taillon as well.   Surprisingly, their GB rates were identical for their careers (43.8%).