“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[waroriole]

16 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I would have absolutely LOVED to get Syndergaard...

...as the Gibson-tier signing below a better starter like Bassitt or Walker.

But hey, I'll still take him over the Pineda/Miley/Davies/Archer-tier guy I currently expect as the second outside SP for next year.

I don’t get how you want Syndergaard in a 3 year deal but Gibson at 1/10 is something you keep going on about. 

[waroriole]

7 hours ago, interloper said:

Now announce Rodon somewhere so we can really get on with our lives.

Lol I don’t know why you haven’t already. Eovaldi is out of our price range. 

[clapdiddy]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Holy sh!t, that is one horrible contract.  

The thing I don't like about these contracts is how it will affect Gunnar and Adley.   I know that's down the road a bit, but are they ever going to be able to lock these guys up with the crazy contracts right now?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

The thing I don't like about these contracts is how it will affect Gunnar and Adley.   I know that's down the road a bit, but are they ever going to be able to lock these guys up with the crazy contracts right now?

2 different circumstances imo.

Adley should be easier.

Gunnar will be more difficult but you should be able to get him to go 8 years. He can get that financial security and then, if he’s really good, he will be at an age where he can still get a deal like this.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

The thing I don't like about these contracts is how it will affect Gunnar and Adley.   I know that's down the road a bit, but are they ever going to be able to lock these guys up with the crazy contracts right now?

You are comparing a FA deal to an extension. Clearly the longer they wait the more the cost goes up.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, eddie83 said:

You are comparing a FA deal to an extension. Clearly the longer they wait the more the cost goes up.  

No, he’s saying, will they even want to sign an extension knowing what these deals are like now and how much they will continue to rise.

[eddie83]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Holy sh!t, that is one horrible contract.  

These long deals are all about AAV. All about luxury cap.  

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, he’s saying, will they even want to sign an extension knowing what these deals are like now and how much they will continue to rise.

 I get that but incentive is to lock in serious money now and security or not. Every big deal has an impact. Obviously they can both play it out if they choose. 
 

If they wait they have no chance. They being the Orioles. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by eddie83

[clapdiddy]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, he’s saying, will they even want to sign an extension knowing what these deals are like now and how much they will continue to rise.

Exactly.  If I were Elias, I'd look to get both of these guys into deals ASAP, as the price just keeps escalating.   Unfortunately, I'm not sure that any type of extension is going to get done with the current ownership situation.

Edited December 14, 2022 by clapdiddy

[Sports Guy]

But again, what are you buying/gaining?

You have Adley for the next 5 years. You have Gunnar for 6 more years.

You are going to get, at most 3 extra years out of Gunnar and most likely 2.  For Adley, you will get 3-5 extra years, in his low to mid 30s as a catcher. Worth it if he’s Posey, not worth it if he’s like most C in ML history.

Point being, you are assuming all the risk for what amounts to be a small gain in the grand scheme of things.

I’m not saying not to do it but I can see the point where it may not be the slam dunk decision that many Os fans think it is.

For right now, the (likely) most money you will be paying Gunnar for the next 6 years is about 55M. (If he’s super 2, it could be more)

Adley, for the next 5 years, is similar.  

That’s assuming healthy and high end performance that constitutes record level arb raises.

So, you likely would want to sign them for less than that in those years.  Something like 45M over that time frame for each.

How much do you want to pay for FA years and how much will they expect? I would guess around 30M.

Do you want to get into a long term commitment just to guarantee a few years at 30M per year?

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But again, what are you buying/gaining?

You have Adley for the next 5 years. You have Gunnar for 6 more years.

You are going to get, at most 3 extra years out of Gunnar and most likely 2.  For Adley, you will get 3-5 extra years, in his low to mid 30s as a catcher. Worth it if he’s Posey, not worth it if he’s like most C in ML history.

Point being, you are assuming all the risk for what amounts to be a small gain in the grand scheme of things.

I’m not saying not to do it but I can see the point where it may not be the slam dunk decision that many Os fans think it is.

For right now, the (likely) most money you will be paying Gunnar for the next 6 years is about 55M. (If he’s super 2, it could be more)

Adley, for the next 5 years, is similar.  

That’s assuming healthy and high end performance that constitutes record level arb raises.

So, you likely would want to sign them for less than that in those years.  Something like 45M over that time frame for each.

How much do you want to pay for FA years and how much will they expect? I would guess around 30M.

Do you want to get into a long term commitment just to guarantee a few years at 30M per year?

So it’s ok to risk $180-200+M on Rodon but not make on some levels a similar cost risk for Adley’s 30-32/34 seasons and Gunnar’s 28-29-30 seasons? You increase the years of those two plus a Holliday being together. 
 

The Orioles are also a business. We know the off-season buzz impacts ticket sales. Sure if they win the people will come at some point. That said you could truly market your team around these two and push season ticket sales. 
 

John Angelos will be long gone from owning the team by the time you are at the end of these deals. He could help his own/family legacy by tying down 2 elite homegrown talents. He already looks better on baseball side with Elias. On business side I don’t think he looks better than his dad. He keeps the team until his fathers passing hopes he wins a ring in that time and keeps the teams core players here for the long term. 

[tabletop]

At least now we won’t have to hear about the O’s signing Correa for 13 years. It was always a ridiculous idea for a team with multiple high end SS prospects.

[clapdiddy]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But again, what are you buying/gaining?

You have Adley for the next 5 years. You have Gunnar for 6 more years.

You are going to get, at most 3 extra years out of Gunnar and most likely 2.  For Adley, you will get 3-5 extra years, in his low to mid 30s as a catcher. Worth it if he’s Posey, not worth it if he’s like most C in ML history.

Point being, you are assuming all the risk for what amounts to be a small gain in the grand scheme of things.

I’m not saying not to do it but I can see the point where it may not be the slam dunk decision that many Os fans think it is.

For right now, the (likely) most money you will be paying Gunnar for the next 6 years is about 55M. (If he’s super 2, it could be more)

Adley, for the next 5 years, is similar.  

That’s assuming healthy and high end performance that constitutes record level arb raises.

So, you likely would want to sign them for less than that in those years.  Something like 45M over that time frame for each.

How much do you want to pay for FA years and how much will they expect? I would guess around 30M.

Do you want to get into a long term commitment just to guarantee a few years at 30M per year?

You make a great point.   I just hope what happened with Machado doesn't happen with these two and any other potential stars in the future.    They knew Manny was going to test the market and they held onto him a year too long.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So it’s ok to risk $180-200+M on Rodon but not make on some levels a similar cost risk for Adley’s 30-32/34 seasons and Gunnar’s 28-29-30 seasons? You increase the years of those two plus a Holliday being together. 
 

The Orioles are also a business. We know the off-season buzz impacts ticket sales. Sure if they win the people will come at some point. That said you could truly market your team around these two and push season ticket sales. 
 

John Angelos will be long gone from owning the team by the time you are at the end of these deals. He could help his own/family legacy by tying down 2 elite homegrown talents. He already looks better on baseball side with Elias. On business side I don’t think he looks better than his dad. He keeps the team until his fathers passing hopes he wins a ring in that time and keeps the teams core players here for the long term. 

We aren’t getting Rodon….At this point I’m hoping we get Wacha or somebody like that on a 1-3 year deal..

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We aren’t getting Rodon….At this point I’m hoping we get Wacha or somebody like that on a 1-3 year deal..

I’m well aware we aren’t getting him. Was using him for reference. 
 

I don’t buy they were ever really after him.