Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So his first half of 2021 is totally wiped out by a very high BABIP?    Just ignore everything because of that?

His batting average prior to the trade deadline in 2021 was 50 points higher than his career average, which was almost identical to the margin his BABIP exceeded his career norm, and he came back down to Earth after being traded.

It seems pretty reasonable to conclude that this was simply a lucky outlier that isn't likely to occur again. That doesn't mean that it can't, but his awful batted ball metrics and poor sprint speed seem to suggest that it's pretty improbable.

[BRobinsonfan]

This is the point when Old#5Fan would point out that Frazier has a "much better baseball name" than Vavra, Westburg, or especially Norby.  

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by BRobinsonfan

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

His batting average prior to the trade deadline in 2021 was 50 points higher than his career average, which was almost identical to the margin his BABIP exceeded his career norm, and he came back down to Earth after being traded.

It seems pretty reasonable to conclude that this was simply a lucky outlier that isn't likely to occur again. That doesn't mean that it can't, but his awful batted ball metrics and poor sprint speed seem to suggest that it's pretty improbable.

I agree the BABIP wasn't sustainable and accounted for better numbers than they would/should have been.   The numbers still would have fallen in line with his career averages.    When he went to San Diego and last year with Seattle it wasn't back down to earth.   It was below the averages, including exit velocity and speed, that he had established with Pittsburgh.   Now the speed was up above 50% his whole career until 2022.   That's a concern for sure.   I agree, you can make a case that he got old all of a sudden but I don't buy that he got old in the middle of the year in 2021.    

[eddie83]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It is literally fascinating watching people so caught up in Elias that they are actually trying to defend this move. 

Biggest joke of all has to be the people saying the money doesn't matter and that it won't stop them from doing anything else. Right, because this organization has given you every reason to think they will spend at will to add impact talent, lol. Sure, they just spent 40% of their offseason additions to payroll on a platoon, slow, slap hitting second baseman but hey, they can just bench him if he stinks again because you know, this team can just eat money. lol

And by the way, I'm going to start dinging people rep who say stupid uneducated things that a simple perusal through Baseball Savant would solve.

You can't say "you don't understand why people are saying he's slow" when I'm literally doing the damn homework for you and posting the metrics. This is not some stupid eye test you get from watching him for ten plate appearances but actual metrics taken from statcast.

So, while its your right to think everything Elias does is right, I'll admit to losing respect for you as a knowledgeable Hangouter if you can't due simple research or analyze the statistical information available correctly.

Feel free to ignore all of the empirical evidence and rely on your fan instincts that all will be well, but here at the Hangout, you need to back that up with facts.

What evidence do you have that Frazier will be better this year? Dig into his defense at 2B. That's really his calling card here right? Does he turn the DP really good? Well let's go look at Fan Graphs defensive stats for him at https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adam-frazier/15223/stats?position=2B/OF.

His Double play runs above average last year was 0.8 (Odor was 1.6) so it's not like he's a wizard there. Good, but not as good as Odor, which was Odor's only real calling card besides his strong arm for those plays up the middle or in shallow RF (that will no longer be allowed).

He put up really good OAA numbers at 2B vs his UZR which ended up very mediocre at 0.1 mainly because their numbers show his range was not good.

Now, I'm on record as saying I like OAA for the most part so I'm going to say he's a plus defender at 2B overall. Now is he a game changing defensive 2B that is worth his limited platoon bat? I don't think so.

At the end of the day, whether I agree with you or not doesn't matter, but don't put up lazy defenses. This is the Hangout. We expect more.

Tell us in numbers why he's good for this team or why the $8 million won't matter. Besides just hoping, why does that not matter? What have the Orioles done of late to show that spending $8 million on a player doesn't matter. What are we missing?

 

 

 

 

Where is the $8m in savings going Tony? Where? $8M on someone else nobody likes? You claim they won’t go after impactful talent but think $8M is the reason they won’t? This stops them from doing what? Still not bringing in an impactful player is the answer. 

 

People complain they don’t spend enough - and I agree- and then think that this $8M could have been combined with Gibson. Ok. What are you getting for $18M?  A Bellinger? Higher upside SP on a one year deal? A quality SP is going to cost you at least 3 years of that. Not one year, 3. If you give a SP a 3 year deal at $20M a year - which once again they should be able to afford - then you are risking that $20M on one arm per year. It would take 7/8 years of $8M a year savings to get to a solid SP. I am suppose to think that one year of Adam Frazier is why they can’t sign a legit SP or won’t in the future. Not buying it. They are going to pile up the savings from this and throw it around later on? $8M in today’s game does not get you an impact player. Why does anyone think this is why they aren’t using it on someone else. A good player costs multiple years, not 1. 

Ae far as him the player, his skill is to get in base which this team lacks and defensive flexibility. Generally speaking he gets on base about .60 -.65 points higher than his BA. That includes last year. The team had a .302 OBP last year. If he hits .240 again then it didn’t work out. The guy hits .275 that is a .335-340 OBP. The worst thing of all is not signing him it would be playing him if he does struggle. Then you can move him to a bench role. Speaking of that we are to assume that none of the regulars ever get hurt like Hays or Santander? The rest all play great, no regression from Mateo, Stowers and Westburg have smooth transitions. Basically little goes wrong. 
 

By signing him you have a player on a cheap one year deal that can play second and the OF. It creates depth. Gives you margin for error. Even if they deal Urias there is still depth. I personally am not worried how many at bats Stowers and Westburg get this year. Things will work themselves out. Urias could be dealt tomorrow, in the spring, later on or he gets 600 at bats. Why is coming into the season with more options by using money that you weren’t using to bring in a big name anyway a bad thing? 

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I cannot disagree with most of what you say about San Diego and I am certainly not suggesting for the Orioles to spend at the same level they are. However, previous to their current owner they were considered a small market and were ran accordingly. 

2023 will be the first year that the Padres won’t receive a competitive balance pick.  In the 2017-21 CBA, they were considered the 25th biggest market of the 30 teams, behind Baltimore at 21.   I’m not sure why they are not getting a pick now.   It may be that teams that exceed the luxury tax threshold don’t get one, or maybe their market size has been revised in the new CBA.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Frobby

[eddie83]

23 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

I normally lean to the "trust the plan" and "Elias fan boy" side of the equation simply because, as a data driven GM, he's been such a breath of fresh air.  And there's no denying he has drafted well.  But the Frazier acquisition, and to a lesser extent the Gibson deal, just leave me dumbfounded.  I can clearly see how Gibson is an upgrade over Lyles as a back of the rotation starter, but he's not that much of one and he's also older.  It's hard to believe that the $10 million it cost to sign him couldn't have been spent better.  

The Frazier deal just strains all credulity for me.   $8 million to fill a position that really didn't need to be filled, for a guy with his metrics doesn't make any sense.  I really would love to see Elias defend this move in detail because I just don't see the value in it.  

I would think we could have spent the $18 million spent on Gibson and Frazier a lot better.  I think even banking it would have been preferable to using it in this way.  While I never expected the O's to spend absurd amounts of money in the off season like some did, I certainly thought we'd make much better use of the limited resources we have. 

Who are you getting for $18m?  Who. 
 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Who are you getting for $18m?  Who. 
 

I previously pointed out that $18 million would have covered well over half of two years of Jose Quintana, even after factoring in the need to offer a few million more than the 2/$25 he got from the Mets.

Quintana+Westburg/Ortiz > Gibson+Frazier, IMO.

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I agree the BABIP wasn't sustainable and accounted for better numbers than they would/should have been.   The numbers still would have fallen in line with his career averages.    When he went to San Diego and last year with Seattle it wasn't back down to earth.   It was below the averages, including exit velocity and speed, that he had established with Pittsburgh.   Now the speed was up above 50% his whole career until 2022.   That's a concern for sure.   I agree, you can make a case that he got old all of a sudden but I don't buy that he got old in the middle of the year in 2021.    

He still hit .267 with SD, which is very close to his pre-2021 career average of .273.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 Because Westburg and Norby cannot play 2B at the MLB level. 

Do you have anything to substantiate your statement? One possibly both with be up at sone point this year. Bring one in a little early and don’t waste 8 million that could be used elsewhere.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Roll Tide

[MarCakes21]

9 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Who are you getting for $18m?  Who. 
 

The easier answer than @DrinkinWithFermi gave is no one.  Why bother to make moves that don't move the needle.  This doesn't put you over the top to playoff contender or world series contender.  So either you go in or you don't.  If your punting the season to the likes of Frazier, than might as well let Westburg/Ortiz get their feet wet earlier, see what you have in Vavra and then you know more about 2024 by what happens in 2023 than playing Adam Frazier for 120 games. 

[Number5]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

2023 will be the first year that the Padres won’t receive a competitive balance pick.  In the 2017-21 CBA, they were considered the 25th biggest market of the 30 teams, behind Baltimore at 21.   I’m not sure why they are not getting a pick now.   It may be that teams that exceed the luxury tax threshold don’t get one, or maybe their market size has been revised in the new CBA.

Wow.  I didn't know this.  Strange, as the population of the San Diego area has been quite large for quite a few years.  I wonder if their tv revenue was comparatively poor at that time and has now been improved?  What other factors go into it?

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I previously pointed out that $18 million would have covered well over half of two years of Jose Quintana, even after factoring in the need to offer a few million more than the 2/$25 he got from the Mets.

Quintana+Westburg/Ortiz > Gibson+Frazier, IMO.

He still hit .267 with SD, which is very close to his pre-2021 career average of .273.

The Orioles are still going to sign another arm. Once again it’s a 2 year deal. 

How much more does he want to play here?  You give 2/30 and he takes it. Then what? At the end of the day what they gave those two plus another arm will be around $30M and you still have the young players.  

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I previously pointed out that $18 million would have covered well over half of two years of Jose Quintana, even after factoring in the need to offer a few million more than the 2/$25 he got from the Mets.

Quintana+Westburg/Ortiz > Gibson+Frazier, IMO.

He still hit .267 with SD, which is very close to his pre-2021 career average of .273.

Ok?   He's a career .336 OBP .725 OPS hitter.   Those are averages including the good years, bad years, everything.   His exit velocities and slugging were never very high but they have cratered since his trade from Pittsburgh.  Why?   I don't know.  If it's not reversible this will be a regrettable move.

[eddie83]

5 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

The easier answer than @DrinkinWithFermi gave is no one.  Why bother to make moves that don't move the needle.  This doesn't put you over the top to playoff contender or world series contender.  So either you go in or you don't.  If your punting the season to the likes of Frazier, than might as well let Westburg/Ortiz get their feet wet earlier, see what you have in Vavra and then you know more about 2024 by what happens in 2023 than playing Adam Frazier for 120 games. 

This is illogical. They aren’t playing Frazier 120 games if he isn’t producing. 

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

This is illogical. They aren’t playing Frazier 120 games if he isn’t producing. 

I don't think we can be sure of this.  They played Odor.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

My biggest issue with the folks defending this move is they haven't shown statistically why this is going to work and why he's worth $8 million dollars.

Besides hope, why do we expect a 31 year old slap hitter to suddenly to better in 2023 when besides a BABIP drive good 1st half in 2021, he hasn't been good since 2019 when he was 27 years old?

I like adding Frazier.

I hate adding him for $8 million.

His BABIP last year was roughly as far below his career average than 2021 was above. With a similar LD%. He also has better numbers against RHP. So there's reason to expect something better. Say a ~.650-.700 OPS, if used right (as a platoon).

My biggest concern about $8 million is it implies they view him as a full time player. I don't want any FA who isn't awesome getting Odor-like innings. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the cost of WAR has simply gone up a lot, but I fear this move will block young players who honestly should be better.