What is the real reason for our off season?

[SemperFi]

13 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

If Goldman Sachs was hired to evaluate the team for sale that evaluation would tell the current owners that multi-year deals decreases value on sale.  As such, no multiyear deals. 

Dear Angelos': Sell the f-ing team and stop ruining my fandom.

Yes, but I think a longer term deal for Adley and/or Gunnar would not be looked at unfavorably.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 12/28/2022 at 2:32 PM, DrinkinWithFermi said:

A combination of #1 and #4 would be my guess.

He does not believe we can realistically contend for the playoffs with the resources available to him so he chose to punt 2023.

Maybe Elias is secretly trying to tread water until a new ownership group arrives.  The idea that a GM doesn't want to spend money is ridiculous.  It seems that Friedman adjusted very quickly to LA and I don't hear that he is complaining about being forced to spend on expensive free agents all the time.

[AnythingO's]

2 hours ago, SemperFi said:

Thanks for your model, correct me if I am wrong but you would then have an operating profit of around $80m in 2021 dollars?  I came up with around $100m in 2022 but there are some expenses I cannot account for.  Thanks! 

Yes, in my view the Operating Income is profit, so $83 M for 2021. I haven't gone looking for 2022 yet. Note that for 4 of the last 8 years there was a loss. Also the difference between Salaries and Payroll incl Expenses is usually $15-20 M but in 2019 it was over $40 M, so there is variability there as just yet unexplained. Also, to Spirit of 66's comment, the profits in 2019 and 2021 make John look like a successful businessman, something he has not previously demonstrated.

Edited December 29, 2022 by AnythingO's
spelling

[SemperFi]

25 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Yes, in my view the Operating Income is profit, so $83 M for 2021. I haven't gone looking for 2022 yet. Note that for 4 of the last 8 years there was a loss. Also the difference between Salaries and Payroll incl Expenses is usually $15-20 M but in 2019 it was over $40 M, so there is variability there as just yet unexplained. Also, to Spirit of 66's comment, the profits in 2019 and 2021 make John look like a successful businessman, something he has not previously demonstrated.

Thanks, I thought the attached was interesting for comparing the franchises but taking revenue per seat @ $33 across the board was low for the bigger market teams.  If you follow his numbers OI is $140 (adding the $30m from Disney) but again he's not capturing some expenses.  Since the books aren't totally open I'm always a little skeptical about the size of losses.  

https://www.morssglobalfinance.com/major-league-baseball-finances-what-the-numbers-tell-us/

[Going Underground]

1 hour ago, AnythingO's said:

Yes, in my view the Operating Income is profit, so $83 M for 2021. I haven't gone looking for 2022 yet. Note that for 4 of the last 8 years there was a loss. Also the difference between Salaries and Payroll incl Expenses is usually $15-20 M but in 2019 it was over $40 M, so there is variability there as just yet unexplained. Also, to Spirit of 66's comment, the profits in 2019 and 2021 make John look like a successful businessman, something he has not previously demonstrated.

But the MASN revenue given to the  Nats and Orioles is not all the revenue MASN makes. The rest goes to the owners of MASN which is mostly the Angelos clan 

[ScGO's]

I think Elias is trying to keep the books clear for next year's offseason, so all deals are going to be 1 year. At the beginning of the offseason, they probably explored long term deals, but just decided that the risk wasn't quite worth it yet. This team can make the playoffs, but they need one more year to figure out who they are at the MLB level before gambling with money and trading their youth. Its only the 2nd full year for Adley and the 1st full year for Gunnar who will both be pillars moving forward IF they continue to develop and improve. There are a dozen other young players that they need this year to evaluate at the MLB level. If some of the youth players hit big this year, then they know where they don't need to allocate money. There could be major improvements and new additions through the farm system this year, or there might not be. We need 2022 to figure out how to move forward based on how this budding crop of prospects performs at the MLB level this season.

Sorta surprised we weren't in more on Kluber. I guess with pitching, its probably Wacha or bust if he takes a 1 year deal worth about 10-12 million. I am starting to think we swing Urias, Santander, Mateo, or Hays for a pitcher.

I wonder if Brandon Belt takes a 1 year 5 mil deal with lots of incentives to bump it up to 10. Would allow us to explore deals for Santander.

 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I think Elias is trying to keep the books clear for next year's offseason, so all deals are going to be 1 year. At the beginning of the offseason, they probably explored long term deals, but just decided that the risk wasn't quite worth it yet. This team can make the playoffs, but they need one more year to figure out who they are at the MLB level before gambling with money and trading their youth. Its only the 2nd full year for Adley and the 1st full year for Gunnar who will both be pillars moving forward IF they continue to develop and improve. There are a dozen other young players that they need this year to evaluate at the MLB level. If some of the youth players hit big this year, then they know where they don't need to allocate money. There could be major improvements and new additions through the farm system this year, or there might not be. We need 2022 to figure out how to move forward based on how this budding crop of prospects performs at the MLB level this season.

Sorta surprised we weren't in more on Kluber. I guess with pitching, its probably Wacha or bust if he takes a 1 year deal worth about 10-12 million. I am starting to think we swing Urias, Santander, Mateo, or Hays for a pitcher.

I wonder if Brandon Belt takes a 1 year 5 mil deal with lots of incentives to bump it up to 10. Would allow us to explore deals for Santander.

 

It will be Adley's first full year as well.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I think Elias is trying to keep the books clear for next year's offseason, so all deals are going to be 1 year. At the beginning of the offseason, they probably explored long term deals, but just decided that the risk wasn't quite worth it yet. This team can make the playoffs, but they need one more year to figure out who they are at the MLB level before gambling with money and trading their youth. Its only the 2nd full year for Adley and the 1st full year for Gunnar who will both be pillars moving forward IF they continue to develop and improve. There are a dozen other young players that they need this year to evaluate at the MLB level. If some of the youth players hit big this year, then they know where they don't need to allocate money. There could be major improvements and new additions through the farm system this year, or there might not be. We need 2022 to figure out how to move forward based on how this budding crop of prospects performs at the MLB level this season.

Sorta surprised we weren't in more on Kluber. I guess with pitching, its probably Wacha or bust if he takes a 1 year deal worth about 10-12 million. I am starting to think we swing Urias, Santander, Mateo, or Hays for a pitcher.

I wonder if Brandon Belt takes a 1 year 5 mil deal with lots of incentives to bump it up to 10. Would allow us to explore deals for Santander.

 

Belt had season ending knee surgery and he does not know if he will even play in 2023 or ever again.

https://www.si.com/mlb/giants/news/sf-giants-news-brandon-belt-injury

[NCRaven]

Next years list of free agents is pretty weak.  Means might be one of the better ones.

Edited December 30, 2022 by NCRaven

[Since1984]

4 hours ago, SemperFi said:

"Have wondered about this a number of times this off-season. How much money has the ownership group pocketed the last several years. Could this add up to the group keeping the team, instead. That scares me, since it could take another several offseason’s like this"

From the link I posted earlier around $100m in the tank years, maybe more.  Good idea what revenue rent and salaries are, I have no clue what the other operating expenses and debt service is.  I would guess a large chunk is taken by the family in salary to avoid the 40% inheritance tax.

 

 

If the Forbes estimate of 1.4b is the Orioles sales price and they bought for 400m in the early 90’s that is $400m in inheritance tax, assuming a 40% tax rate. I’m sure there are ways around paying the entire liability in one year, but that puts the O’s in a less desirable spot for years to come, if the team is not sold. The team cannot compete in the $160-240m salary range (e.g Astros), in this scenario.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Next years list of free agents is pretty week.  Means might be one of the better ones.

Exactly.  This idea that you can just fill all your holes in one off-season is overly optimistic and simplistic.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Next years list of free agents is pretty week.  Means might be one of the better ones.

Means is not a FA until after the 2024 season.

[Safelykept]

31 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I think Elias is trying to keep the books clear for next year's offseason, so all deals are going to be 1 year. At the beginning of the offseason, they probably explored long term deals, but just decided that the risk wasn't quite worth it yet. This team can make the playoffs, but they need one more year to figure out who they are at the MLB level before gambling with money and trading their youth. Its only the 2nd full year for Adley and the 1st full year for Gunnar who will both be pillars moving forward IF they continue to develop and improve. There are a dozen other young players that they need this year to evaluate at the MLB level. If some of the youth players hit big this year, then they know where they don't need to allocate money. There could be major improvements and new additions through the farm system this year, or there might not be. We need 2022 to figure out how to move forward based on how this budding crop of prospects performs at the MLB level this season.

Sorta surprised we weren't in more on Kluber. I guess with pitching, its probably Wacha or bust if he takes a 1 year deal worth about 10-12 million. I am starting to think we swing Urias, Santander, Mateo, or Hays for a pitcher.

I wonder if Brandon Belt takes a 1 year 5 mil deal with lots of incentives to bump it up to 10. Would allow us to explore deals for Santander.

 

A  one year deal with incentives would probably be the Giants

[Since1984]

4 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I thought they had a "war chest" of already saved money ready to dump into the team? 

 

 

Hope this is the scenario going on in the warehouse! One that Elias signed up for to accomplish (with liftoff)

[JR Oriole]

17 minutes ago, Since1984 said:

Hope this is the scenario going on in the warehouse! One that Elias signed up for to accomplish (with liftoff)

I wonder if he will ever use the word "liftoff" again in any conversation for the rest of his life.  Not even sure I would ever speak to the media again if I was him.