Braves lock up C Sean Murphy; Adley’s market value

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Probably a lot if he just put it in an index fund.   But come on .. that amount of money alone is far more than the vast majority of people ever make in their lifetime. 
And once players sign contracts.. their money is guaranteed.. if they can’t work for a year they get full salary.. if they can’t work for the length of their entire contract or they perform abysmally, they get paid. Chris Davis will make millions doing absolutely nothing till 2037. 
So let’s maintain a little perspective about poor Adley.. lol
Am I somehow supposed to worry about Adley’s heirs?   He comes from a very strong family background by all accounts, is a very grounded young man and he will do just fine even with only the 5.5 million lol 

Thanks for providing your opinions.  Not really sure how to respond to that.  
 

one note:

Oregon Estate Tax is 482,000 + 12% for an estate of 5.5-6.5.  So if he maintains his 5.5MM (this assumes no future earnings - which is the scenario we have been discussing) his heirs would get around 4.2MM.  Again, not a lot of money to split up between how many (someone say multiple generations…..???) And factoring in inflation 50 years down the road.  

[Paul in Virginia]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Thanks for providing your opinions.  Not really sure how to respond to that.  
 

one note:

Oregon Estate Tax is 482,000 + 12% for an estate of 5.5-6.5.  So if he maintains his 5.5MM (this assumes no future earnings - which is the scenario we have been discussing) his heirs would get around 4.2MM.  Again, not a lot of money to split up between how many (someone say multiple generations…..???) And factoring in inflation 50 years down the road.  

A $5.5M estate doesn't get wacked for 50%, regardless of where you live.  Federal estate tax exemption for 2023 is $12.92M for a single person, twice that for a married couple.

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Paul in Virginia

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Paul in Virginia said:

A $5.5M estate doesn't get wacked for 50%, regardless of where you live.  Federal estate tax exemption for 2023 is $12.92M for a single person, twice that for a married couple.

 

I followed up in a previous post.  The 50% number thrown out was incorrect.  

[jabba72]

8-120 Is probably too low seeing the recent contracts given out. 8-160 might be getting closer.

[jabba72]

Offer Gunnar 10 -230 and Adley 8-160. They can scale it up 10-20m or so if they feel necessary.  

[tntoriole]

5 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Thanks for providing your opinions.  Not really sure how to respond to that.  
 

one note:

Oregon Estate Tax is 482,000 + 12% for an estate of 5.5-6.5.  So if he maintains his 5.5MM (this assumes no future earnings - which is the scenario we have been discussing) his heirs would get around 4.2MM.  Again, not a lot of money to split up between how many (someone say multiple generations…..???) And factoring in inflation 50 years down the road.  

It is silly.  No person is just going to stick 5 million under their mattress for 50 years.  How much investment interest do you think 5.5 million would likely earn in 50 years? 
He is a 10 millionaire at his tender young age.. He will likely make 500 million in his career.  I am not worried about Adley or his heirs. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, jabba72 said:

8-120 Is probably too low seeing the recent contracts given out. 8-160 might be getting closer.

You need to keep in mind that 5 of those 8 years are non-FA seasons, including 2 near the minimum.  Also, no catcher has ever earned more than $23 mm/yr in his FA seasons.   

[jabba72]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You need to keep in mind that 5 of those 8 years are non-FA seasons, including 2 near the minimum.  Also, no catcher has ever earned more than $23 mm/yr in his FA seasons.   

Adley's likely going to be the first to break that threshold, though. Im willing to pay up for 3 of his FA years. Unless he wants a 10 year team friendly deal. 

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

It is silly.  No person is just going to stick 5 million under their mattress for 50 years.  How much investment interest do you think 5.5 million would likely earn in 50 years? 
He is a 10 millionaire at his tender young age.. He will likely make 500 million in his career.  I am not worried about Adley or his heirs. 

Again, he does not have 10mm.  And we are not talking about our concern for Adley…..He should expect about 5% return per year or about 250-300k.  That amount should cover his living expenses per year and allow him to save a bit for stuff like college for his children.   Like I said before and as the point has been hammered home, 5.5mm is not enough money to change the life him and two future generations.  If he lives modestly, he will have  stress free life.  If he tears his ACL in spring training  he misses his chance at a huge contract extension and misses our on next year and potentially some of 2024.  I’m done engaging with this.  

[tntoriole]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Again, he does not have 10mm.  And we are not talking about our concern for Adley…..He should expect about 5% return per year or about 250-300k.  That amount should cover his living expenses per year and allow him to save a bit for stuff like college for his children.   Like I said before and as the point has been hammered home, 5.5mm is not enough money to change the life him and two future generations.  If he lives modestly, he will have  stress free life.  If he tears his ACL in spring training  he misses his chance at a huge contract extension and misses our on next year and potentially some of 2024.  I’m done engaging with this.  

I disagree with your original opinion that 5.5 million is not life changing.  Most everyone would say that it was. 
But yes, let’s move on.  Adley will be worth closer to a billion when done.  I will not be. 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I disagree with your original opinion that 5.5 million is not life changing.  Most everyone would say that it was. 
But yes, let’s move on.  Adley will be worth closer to a billion when done.  I will not be. 

It would take a pretty catastrophic event at this point for Adley to not make a least a few more million in his career.

I think he's in a great position to bet on himself if he wants to.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It would take a pretty catastrophic event at this point for Adley to not make a least a few more million in his career.

I think he's in a great position to bet on himself if he wants to.

I guess.   If you told Adley you can make 160M guaranteed for 8 years today or you can go year to year and make 200M over the same time period but there's also a chance you could have a career ending injury and not make anything.    There's got to be a point where that extra 40M (or whatever the number is) isn't worth the risk.    

[emmett16]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I guess.   If you told Adley you can make 160M guaranteed for 8 years today or you can go year to year and make 200M over the same time period but there's also a chance you could have a career ending injury and not make anything.    There's got to be a point where that extra 40M (or whatever the number is) isn't worth the risk.    

Especially for a guy that turns 25 in May and becomes a FA at 30 playing the most strenuous position.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I guess.   If you told Adley you can make 160M guaranteed for 8 years today or you can go year to year and make 200M over the same time period but there's also a chance you could have a career ending injury and not make anything.    There's got to be a point where that extra 40M (or whatever the number is) isn't worth the risk.    

Sure.

But let's be honest here, it would take a terrible injury for him "not make anything" at this point.    Wieters made 38M in contracts after TJ.

It is very likely that a number exists that would entice him to sign a long term deal.

[emmett16]

22 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I disagree with your original opinion that 5.5 million is not life changing.  Most everyone would say that it was. 
But yes, let’s move on.  Adley will be worth closer to a billion when done.  I will not be. 

My main point is that I believe the Oriole are in a fairly good position to secure him long term if they really are so inclined.