Fangraphs ranks our SP as #28

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Camden Yards said:

Hopefully GROD can explode on the scene like this guy!

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stridsp01.shtml

Hopefully.  I'm not sure Elias lets him get to 130 innings.

[Jagwar]

8 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Hopefully GROD can explode on the scene like this guy!

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stridsp01.shtml

Especially if he can grow the same mustache !

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Our current Opening Day starter is either Kyle Gibson or Dean Kremer so bottom 3-5 is a pretty fair ranking for our rotation at the moment. 

[wildcard]

This Fangraphs prediction is probably worse then their FA contract prediction.   They were way off with that one.   Heck MLBTR did much better and that has to hurt Fangraphs credibility.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This Fangraphs prediction is probably worse then their FA contract prediction.   They were way off with that one.   Heck MLBTR did much better and that has to hurt Fangraphs credibility.

I forget what they messed up on their FA predictions?  Did they do something as stupid as suggest the O's would sign a player of note? 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This Fangraphs prediction is probably worse then their FA contract prediction.   They were way off with that one.   Heck MLBTR did much better and that has to hurt Fangraphs credibility.

It doesn't look particularly outlandish to me.

In fact, it might even be a bit generous to guys like Baumann, Zimmerman, Bradish, and Hall.

 

[SemperFi]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

As I jokingly pointed out earlier, it isn't hard to do better than 28th.  Someone is going to end up with 60% of their rotation on the IL at the same time.

 

Although I think a trade is coming, that is why the lack of movement is so distressing-you need starter depth.  They all break.

[OriolesMagic83]

Fangraph predictions look very bland.  Is this one of the regression to the mean predictions.  I noticed they predicted Manoah to have an ERA of 4.04.  I'll take the under.  Very few ERAs under 4.  Corbin with a mid 4 ERA, the guy was literally about the worst starter in the majors.

[wildcard]

Here us mine:  

Bradish  175      3.28      33    Same as 2nd Half  with increased innings

Gibson   167      3.96      32    Bigger park, Better defense, Better analytics and coaching

Kremer   154     3.23      30   Same as last year  with increased innings. WBC costs  him innings

Wells      136      4.25       26  Same as last year with increased innings

Grayson   100     3.50      17

Means       75     3.81       15

Voth         103    3.04         9   Some relief innings

In case of injury

Hall                      4.20

Watkins                4.17

Baumann              4.72

I don't see Zimmermann in the majors with the O's.   He is a lefty which Fangraphs missed.

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

Last year the Orioles’ starters threw 802 innings to an ERA of 4.35.   These projections have them pitching 910 innings at 4.26.   Doesn’t sound crazy pessimistic to me.  Here’s last year’s list.

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Last year the Orioles’ starters threw 802 innings to an ERA of 4.35.   These projections have them pitching 910 innings at 4.26.   Doesn’t sound crazy pessimistic to me.  Here’s last year’s list.

Some of Voth inning are relief innings.  45 inning are starter innings.  So the total for the starter is 852 innings.     And the team ERA would be 3.61.   I think the O's have a top 5 AL ERA next season.

If you think its too optimistic tell me which player is too optimistic.

Edited January 1, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Some of Voth inning are relief innings.  45 inning are starter innings.  So the total for the starter is 852 innings.     And the team ERA would be 3.61.   I think the O's have a top 5 AL ERA next season.

If you think its too optimistic tell me which player is too optimistic.

I think we kind of went through this in some other threads, no?   You and I had a protracted debate about Kremer here.  I’m also not as bullish on Bradish as you, though I do expect his ERA to be much better than last year’s.   I doubt Voth is anywhere near your projection.   Those are the main three, though I think the others are a shade optimistic as well.   I hope your projections turn out to be pretty close to accurate - that would be a very good outcome for the O’s.  

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think we kind of went through this in some other threads, no?   You and I had a protracted debate about Kremer here.  I’m also not as bullish on Bradish as you, though I do expect his ERA to be much better than last year’s.   I doubt Voth is anywhere near your projection.   Those are the main three, though I think the others are a shade optimistic as well.   I hope your projections turn out to be pretty close to accurate - that would be a very good outcome for the O’s.  

Yes, we have talked about it.   I see development occurring with Kremer and Bradish.    Kremer keeping the same ERA and adding starts and innings.  Bradish 2nd half showed great development and I have him adding starts and  innings.  I see  no reason to think Voth can't repeat what he did for the O's last year.   

Adley is key to the improvement of the staff and I think the addition of McCann is a good addition to help the pitching staff.

[Sports Guy]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hopefully.  I'm not sure Elias lets him get to 130 innings.

I’ll ask this again.  Why did he let Hall, a player with a worse injury history and a smaller frame, throw 60ish innings mor

 

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Some of Voth inning are relief innings.  45 inning are starter innings.  So the total for the starter is 852 innings.     And the team ERA would be 3.61.   I think the O's have a top 5 AL ERA next season.

If you think its too optimistic tell me which player is too optimistic.

Bradish, Kremer, Voth.

Not enough innings and starts for GRod

[E-D-D-I-E]

Wilcard. I would argue that if your right on the majority of your predictions, obtaining a TOR was not necessary. I certainly have my doubts but I damn sure would love to see it. Those results would indicate a playoff birth imo.