Westburg or Mountcastle? Higher WAR if Full Time Starter at 1B on OD?

[Tony-OH]

By the way, I do think not playing Westburg or Vavra at first base some was a developmental misstep. 

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

By the way, I do think not playing Westburg or Vavra at first base some was a developmental misstep. 

Yeah.  It's interesting that an organization that likes to move players around, has not had anyone (Stowers/Westburg/Mayo) dabble at 1B at least a little.

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d bet on Mountcastle.  He’ll probably outhit Westburg in 2023 and be the better fielder at least until Westburg has several dozen games at 1B under his belt.  

Yea. For 2023, I probably take RM. Beyond that, I think Westburg. 

[btdart20]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

By the way, I do think not playing Westburg or Vavra at first base some was a developmental misstep. 

Agreed.  The fact that none of our better prospect bats (especially the weaker defenders at deeper positions) have 1B reps is a miss.  It was discussed a good bit in season and the best 'case' for why was how trying a guy out at 1B looks from a trade perspective (i.e. can he not stick at SS or 3B?).  Maybe that's a good enough excuse for 2022, but it's not for 2023 IMO.

Vavra, Westburg, Norby, Mayo, Prieto, Kjerstad, Stowers (if he spends some time in AAA getting reps)...  A ton of options... With varying degrees of preference, pros/cons, and skill sets...

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed.  The fact that none of our better prospect bats (especially the weaker defenders at deeper positions) have 1B reps is a miss.  It was discussed a good bit in season and the best 'case' for why was how trying a guy out at 1B looks from a trade perspective (i.e. can he not stick at SS or 3B?).  Maybe that's a good enough excuse for 2022, but it's not for 2023 IMO.

Vavra, Westburg, Norby, Mayo, Prieto, Kjerstad, Stowers (if he spends some time in AAA getting reps)...  A ton of options... With varying degrees of preference, pros/cons, and skill sets...

I think that's selling other teams short.

I don't think any teams thought Mountcastle was actually a Shortstop when he was playing over there.

They've got lots of data and video.

[interloper]

I can't really get down with the idea of replacing Mountcastle with another right-handed hitter on a position he has very little experience playing. Could he play it, sure, probably. He's a better middle infielder than Mountcastle ever was. 

But the idea doesn't make much sense because they're both right-handed. Unless there's a trade... but they wouldn't trade a starting 1B and hand the position over to a rookie who has almost never played there. 

Edited January 9, 2023 by interloper

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

I can't really get down with the idea of replacing Mountcastle with another right-handed hitter on a position he has very little experience playing. Could he play it, sure, probably. He's a better middle infielder than Mountcastle ever was. 

But the idea doesn't make much sense because they're both right-handed. Unless there's a trade... but they wouldn't trade a starting 1B and hand the position over to a rookie who has almost never played there. 

I think a segment of the OH is disillusioned with Mountcastle and are looking for scenarios in which he's replaced.

[btdart20]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that's selling other teams short.

I don't think any teams thought Mountcastle was actually a Shortstop when he was playing over there.

They've got lots of data and video.

Agreed but that wasn't my intent.  'First impressions' and things like that can have an anchoring influence as well.  

[interloper]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think a segment of the OH is disillusioned with Mountcastle and are looking for scenarios in which he's replaced.

Yeah, I get it. I think some realism is needed though. Not only was Mountcastle very unlucky last year with much better expected numbers than he actually produced, there's just no scenario in which a playoff-hopeful team swaps their power-hitting 1B for a rookie MI who has virtually no 1B experience. 

I like the idea of Westburg as a UIF who can also play 1B in the event of, say, a Urias trade. That would be fun. Starting 1B just isn't realistic though. 

[eddie83]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah, I get it. I think some realism is needed though. Not only was Mountcastle very unlucky last year with much better expected numbers than he actually produced, there's just no scenario in which a playoff-hopeful team swaps their power-hitting 1B for a rookie MI who has virtually no 1B experience. 

I like the idea of Westburg as a UIF who can also play 1B in the event of, say, a Urias trade. That would be fun. Starting 1B just isn't realistic though. 

For some more perspective. Just looked it up. In AL OPS at 1B was .730. Ryan for what it is worth hit better at 1B (.753) than DH (.592). Overall he was .729. NL was .761. 
 

There are far worse options in the big leagues than Ryan. He was roughly middle of the pack offensively at that spot. 

[OriolesMagic83]

It looks like Westburg is blocked for right now.  I think it's likely he would have outhit Frazier at 2B if he hadn't been signed.  The best spot for Westburg seems to be either 1B or COF.  O's have a surplus of middle infield talent and a shortage of MLB ready outfielders.  I would presume Westburg starts 2023 in AAA, but hopefully he will tear up AAA and force either a trade or a promotion.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that's selling other teams short.

I don't think any teams thought Mountcastle was actually a Shortstop when he was playing over there.

They've got lots of data and video.

That was one of the worse thought processes I've heard and it was all on Duquette. There wasn't a player personnel person that I talked with one on one that thought Mountcastle was a SS, a few if any thought he could even stick at 3B.

I remember being told it came from Duquette himself that Mountcastle had to be played at SS to keep his positions value high. But as you know, if no one else thinks he's a SS, playing him there doesn't improve his value. 

Mountcastle should have been moved to the outfield after being drafted and if that didn't wok then onto 1B. They wasted a lot of developmental time.

The Elias regime believes in moving middle infielders around, even top prospects, but have not moved guys who have kinda proven they are not going to stick up the middle or at least won't be a plus defender there.

In my mind, Stowers should have started some reps last year as well as Kjerstad. Westburg and Vavra should have been given some 1B time as well. Heck, if you are going to give Henderson some time there, why you would not give Westburg some rep there in AAA made no sense.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Yeah, I get it. I think some realism is needed though. Not only was Mountcastle very unlucky last year with much better expected numbers than he actually produced, there's just no scenario in which a playoff-hopeful team swaps their power-hitting 1B for a rookie MI who has virtually no 1B experience. 

I like the idea of Westburg as a UIF who can also play 1B in the event of, say, a Urias trade. That would be fun. Starting 1B just isn't realistic though. 

I don't think Westburg has any chance of removing Mountcastle off 1B at the start of the year, but he's not a bad backup plan if the Orioles need to move Mountcastle for a starting pitcher.

I agree with you that Mountcastle has a good chance of rebounding last year and we know he can be an impact hitter when he's hot, the problem with Mountcastle is his low OBP and his long slumps where he's an absolute zero at the plate because of his inability to draw walks.

Westburg has more of the ability to add value even when he's slumping (Westburg has been streaky himself in the minors) because he can work works and can have good PAs, even when slumping. 

 

[Ripken]

Mounty... but he has to take a step forward this year or his future is elsewhere.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

By the way, I do think not playing Westburg or Vavra at first base some was a developmental misstep. 

I don’t know.   Westburg certainly had plenty on his plate already with 2B/SS/3B, which are harder to master.   Vavra is a bit small for a 1B and doesn’t have the power you’d usually want to see at that position.   Besides, just keeping him healthy enough to stay on the field has been a challenge.