Improving O's run production

[wildcard]

The O's scored 674 runs last season.  That was 10th in the AL.   If they want to improve their chances of making the playoffs they need to score more runs.   Last year the O's focused on run prevention.  Improving the pitching and defense.  It was a big part of winning 31 more games than they did in 2021.   If they can add to that improved run production it will go a long way toward them making the playoffs.

The O's did not add  an offensive player to the team this off season.   Frazier  may or may not be an improvement depending on whether he hits like 2021 or 2022.   Who knows?   And they lost Mancini.  His 751 OPS with the O's ranked 4th on the team.  While Chris Holt had great improvement on the pitching side.  Fuller and Borgschulte didn't show their methods improved the hitters much.   We can hope in their 2nd year there is  improve but we really should not count on it.

Instead Elias seems to be counting on a full year of Adley and Gunnar to score more runs.   And for the players that excelled at AAA like Stowers (884 OPS), Westburg (869 OPS), Ortiz (957 OPS), and Cowser (768 OPS) to make the jump to the majors during the season.   That seems to be where Elias sees the improved offense coming from.   I am not saying that all these players begin in the majors but the O's are probably counting of them pushing the guys in front of them to do better or get out of the way.

I think we all expect  Mateo, Gunnar and Ortiz to be evaluated in ST to see how much different there is in their defense at SS.  The less of a drop off there is when going from Mateo to Gunnar/Ortiz the more we will probably see Gunnar/Ortiz at SS this year.   

Urias GG at 3rd has value but his 719 OPS leave him vulnerable to see deceased playing time.  The 773 OPS  he had in 2021  is more what the O's are looking for to improve the offense.    

Mountcastle 728 OPS last year needs to improve.  Wall or not Wall.  That is a reason for Westburg to start learning 1B in ST and at AAA to be ready in case Mountcastle does not improve his offense.  I have more faith in Westburg hitting than Diaz, Cordero, O'Hearn or Lester.

Hays' swan dive offensively in the 2nd half was probably due to playing hurt but he seems to get hurt every year.    His  830 OPS up until June showed what he can do when healthy.   By the 2nd half this season there is hope that Cowser will be ready in case  Hays gets hurt.    Westburg is supposed to have 55 speed and arm.   Working him out in left field may be a  good idea as a backup to Hays  during the first half.

Though there will probably be a drop off in production between AAA and majors for these young players they could drop 100 points in some cases and still be an improvement over what some the O's players did last year.  

I am hoping that the O's young players push the veterans to do better and if they don't, come up and show them how its done to improve the offense.

 

[Frobby]

I agree the offense needs to improve, but I need to disagree with you on a couple of points:

1.  “Fuller and Borgschulte didn't show their methods improved the hitters much.”  In 2021, the Orioles scored 86 fewer runs than the league average.  In 2022 they scored 10 runs fewer than the league average.  So, that’s a 76 run improvement relative to the league average.  Then consider that OPACY was a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2022.  The fact is, the offense improved a lot in 2022.   It’s just that some of the improvement was masked by the overall decline of offense in MLB in 2022, and by the changes in OPACY.

2.  Implicit in your narrative is that the offense is the main culprit and needs to improve, while the pitching is just fine because it improved so much last year.   Well, the Orioles scored 10 runs fewer than the league average, and they allowed 7 runs more than the league average.   So, I’d say improvement is needed equally on both sides of the ball.

3.  I need to point out that last year was Fuller and Borgschulte’s first year on the job. How did the pitching do in Holt’s and Holmes’ first year on the job?   Terribly! The hitting coaches had a MUCH better first year on the job than the pitching coaches did.

So, I don’t want to detract from the fact that the offense needs to continue to improve.  But it did improve significantly last year, in Fuller and Borgschulte’s first year.  And the pitching needs further improvement just as much as the hitting does.

I’ll get into the substance of where improvement might come from in another post.   

[wildcard]

1A.   The O's were 14th in runs scored in 2021 and 10th in runs scored in 2022.  So I agree there was improve vs the League.   But the O's need more improvement in 2022 if they want to be contenders. 

1B.  The O's scored 659 runs in 2021.   The scored 674 runs is 2022.   That's 15 more runs.  The O's need to get to 750 to 800 runs per season for the offense to not be a drag of the team.  That is the kind of jump the O's should be looking for. 

1C.  The Wall should not be an excuse.  The players have to adjust.  Hitting fly ball out to left that would have been homers in 2021 is not a hitting strategy.   Its the players responsibility to make the adjustment and its the pitching coach job to help them.  Otherwise why of the coaches there?

2.  I agree that the pitching needs to improve also.  Grayson, Gibson, Givens  Hall are players that will be on the team this season to address that.  In both offense and pitching cases Elias is relying on young players for improvement.

3. I said this would be the 2nd year for the hitting coaches.   Holt missing over a month in the middle of his first year for some unknown reason.   He was there the whole season in 2022.    If we are looking at coaches, being present is important.

The point I am making is how much Elias is depending on young players for the teams improvement.

Edited January 16, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

Let’s take it position-by-position.

Catcher (.675 OPS in 2022, 104 sOPS+): Adley missed the first 40 games last year, and when he arrived, it took about 3-4 weeks for him to get his land legs.   McCann was no better than Chirinos/Bemboom last year, but he was nursing injuries and is capable of hitting significantly better than in 2022.  Conclusion: offense at C should improve significantly.

1B (.753, 101): Mountcastle’s xBA and xwOBA were much better than his actual numbers last year.  That, plus the place he is in his career arc, lead me to expect significant improvement from him in 2023.  On the other hand, the backup 1B situation is weaker with Mancini gone.  I expect improvement at 1B, but maybe not as much as I’d hope due to the weak backup options.  

2B (.628, 80): A fair amount here rides on Frazier bouncing back from his .612 of a year ago and being closer to his .728 career average.  I’m highly confident he will bounce back at least part of the way, as all the projections suggest.  If he doesn’t, we have strong alternatives including Urias and the various younger players.  This is a situation Hyde needs to manage properly rather than just sticking Frazier there no matter how he’s doing.  But, we should see significant improvement at this position in 2023.

3B (.675, 87): Urias was decent last year but the others who manned 3B largely weren’t.   Henderson figures to be the primary 3B and will be a big improvement there.   Urias can also man the spot.   So, there should be a lot of improvement at 3B.

SS (.641, 84):  This is unpredictable.  While it’s tempting to say there’s nowhere to go but up, Mateo was absolutely horrific outside of his two month hot streak.   Will he hit like the “cold” version of Mateo all year without the corresponding hot streak?   Will he figure out how to recapture the hot streak and have more stretches like that this year?   Will Hyde pull the plug and move Henderson there, or get Ortiz called up?   There are lots of unanswered questions and again I think Hyde’s managing will come into play here.   I’d bet on improvement, but it’s not a slam dunk.

LF (.764, 110): We actually did well here last year.   Mostly this will be about whether Hays stays healthy, whether Stowers develops, and whether we see Cowser at some point.  I think we’d be happy to hold serve here.   

CF (.727, 111): This is mostly about Mullins stays healthy.   If so, status quo.   

RF (.690, 93):  Those low numbers might surprise you, just as the good numbers in LF may have surprised you.  The main reason is that Santander hit much better when playing LF (.952) than he did playing RF (.738), as did Hays (.715/.680), and Mancini fared extremely badly in the 10 games he played in RF (.438).   I see the LF/RF discrepancy as just one of those fluky things that happens in a season, and it’s probably better to just look at the corner OF spots combined and call them (.727/101).  Overall, I think it’s a toss up whether there is improvement or regression in the corner OF.  Will Hays and Santander stay healthy?   Will Santander regress after his best full season, or build on it?   Do we get first-half Hays or second half Hays?   How does Stowers develop, and when do we see Cowser, if at all?  Stay tuned.  

DH (.701, 98): This spot could go either way.  The loss of Mancini hurts, as he was quite comfortable at DH, whereas Santander and Mountcastle struggled there.   Overall I’d guess a slight decline at the DH spot with Mancini gone but Adley getting another 10 games or so there, where he did very well last year.  

Big picture, there’s lots of good opportunity for improvement in the infield.  The outfield and DH are more of a toss up.  Overall, I think if the team is well-managed we should see decent improvement in 2023.   Health will be a factor, as we’re almost sure to experience more injuries in 2023 than 2022, but hopefully the younger depth can cover more ably than the Nevins’ of the world did last year.  The roster is pretty well constructed to be flexible and resilient when injuries do strike.  

[Moose Milligan]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

The point I am making is how much Elias is depending on young players for the teams improvement.

 

What'd you expect?  This whole process has been about a youth movement, being able to scout, draft and develop a young core.  At some point it was going to be all about depending on young players for the teams improvement.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

1B.  The O's scored 659 runs in 2021.   The scored 674 runs is 2022.   That's 15 more runs.  The O's need to get to 750 to 800 runs per season for the offense to not be a drag of the team.  That is the kind of jump the O's should be looking for. 

1C.  The Wall should not be an excuse.  The players have to adjust.  Hitting fly ball out to left that would have been homers in 2021 is not a hitting strategy.   Its the players responsibility to make the adjustment and its the pitching coach job to help them.  Otherwise why of the coaches there?

1B.   You make it sound like increasing our run total by 15 runs wasn’t much of an improvement.  You can’t ignore the fact that the league as a whole scored 61 fewer runs on average in 2022 compared to 2021.   The baseballs were deader, etc.   We improved by 76 runs relative to the league as a whole.   That’s a lot of improvement.   I agree they need to improve more.

1C.   The new dimensions at OPACY aren’t an excuse, they’re a factual reason why it’s harder to score runs at OPACY than it used to be.   The fact is, Orioles hitters adjusted very well.   That’s evidenced by the home/road splits on offense compared to the pitching.   Opposing hitters did far worse at OPACY than they did when facing our pitchers in their home ballparks, whereas our hitters actually did slightly better at OPACY than on the road.  But it’s still just an irrefutable fact that it’s harder to score runs at OPACY now than it was previously, so that 76-run improvement compared to league average actually understates the amount by which our offense improved last year.  

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

1B.   You make it sound like increasing our run total by 15 runs wasn’t much of an improvement.  You can’t ignore the fact that the league as a whole scored 61 fewer runs on average in 2022 compared to 2021.   The baseballs were deader, etc.   We improved by 76 runs relative to the league as a whole.   That’s a lot of improvement.   I agree they need to improve more.

1C.   The new dimensions at OPACY aren’t an excuse, they’re a factual reason why it’s harder to score runs at OPACY than it used to be.   The fact is, Orioles hitters adjusted very well.   That’s evidenced by the home/road splits on offense compared to the pitching.   Opposing hitters did far worse at OPACY than they did when facing our pitchers in their home ballparks, whereas our hitters actually did slightly better at OPACY than on the road.  But it’s still just an irrefutable fact that it’s harder to score runs at OPACY now than it was previously, so that 76-run improvement compared to league average actually understates the amount by which our offense improved last year.  

Do most hitters hit worse on the road?

Edited January 16, 2023 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

1A.   The O's were 14th in runs scored in 2021 and 10th in runs scored in 2022.  So I agree there was improve vs the League.   But the O's need more improvement in 2022 if they want to be contenders. 

1B.  The O's scored 659 runs in 2021.   The scored 674 runs is 2022.   That's 15 more runs.  The O's need to get to 750 to 800 runs per season for the offense to not be a drag of the team.  That is the kind of jump the O's should be looking for. 

1C.  The Wall should not be an excuse.  The players have to adjust.  Hitting fly ball out to left that would have been homers in 2021 is not a hitting strategy.   Its the players responsibility to make the adjustment and its the pitching coach job to help them.  Otherwise why of the coaches there?

2.  I agree that the pitching needs to improve also.  Grayson, Gibson, Givens  Hall are players that will be on the team this season to address that.  In both offense and pitching cases Elias is relying on young players for improvement.

3. I said this would be the 2nd year for the hitting coaches.   Holt missing over a month in the middle of his first year for some unknown reason.   He was there the whole season in 2022.    If we are looking at coaches, being present is important.

The point I am making is how much Elias is depending on young players for the teams improvement.

I am skeptical the coaches can do much to counter the wall, or improve offense overall, for that matter. Best strategy is to overweight LHBs who will naturally hit to RF most of the time. Rather than tweaking coaching philosophy I think the bigger impact will be from talent: Frazier/Westburg vs Odor, McAnn vs Chirinos, maybe getting Mateo out of the lineup. I don't expect Mateo to turn into a .750 OPS guy or Urias to develop opposite field power. I think Stowers can replace most of Mancini's production. We need to move on from guys like Hays and Mouncastle as soon as we find better alternatives.

 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Does most hitters hit worse on the road?

Interestingly, in the AL last year, teams had a higher OPS at home (.711 to .692), but scored more runs on the road (average 343) than at home (335).  I doubt that happens often.  

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

1C.  The Wall should not be an excuse.  The players have to adjust.  Hitting fly ball out to left that would have been homers in 2021 is not a hitting strategy.   Its the players responsibility to make the adjustment and its the pitching coach job to help them.  Otherwise why of the coaches there?

I am curious to see if Urias, Hays and Mountcastle display any noticeable swing changes this year, now that there's "data" how the park plays.

I am sure it was modeled, but I don't think entering 2022 Fuller and Borgschulte were messaging to Mancini, et. al....guys, it's gonna be too tough a bear, your power won't play.

Experience helps and for MLB veterans the offseason gives the biggest window to rework stuff.    Doubles to homers ratios might run lower than Ryan Mountcastle dreamed of for the back of his baseball card but he can still be an impact bat.

[deward]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

1C.  The Wall should not be an excuse.  The players have to adjust.  Hitting fly ball out to left that would have been homers in 2021 is not a hitting strategy.   Its the players responsibility to make the adjustment and its the pitching coach job to help them.  Otherwise why of the coaches there?

 

Much easier said than done. I don't think you can just snap your fingers and turn a player who has spent a playing career crafting a pull-field fly ball swing into an all fields line drive hitter. The Tigers just decided that Comerica Park was too punishing on their young power hitters, I wonder how many years it will take for the O's to do the same.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Let’s take it position-by-position.

Catcher (.675 OPS in 2022, 104 sOPS+): Adley missed the first 40 games last year, and when he arrived, it took about 3-4 weeks for him to get his land legs.   McCann was no better than Chirinos/Bemboom last year, but he was nursing injuries and is capable of hitting significantly better than in 2022.  Conclusion: offense at C should improve significantly.

1B (.753, 101): Mountcastle’s xBA and xwOBA were much better than his actual numbers last year.  That, plus the place he is in his career arc, lead me to expect significant improvement from him in 2023.  On the other hand, the backup 1B situation is weaker with Mancini gone.  I expect improvement at 1B, but maybe not as much as I’d hope due to the weak backup options.  

2B (.628, 80): A fair amount here rides on Frazier bouncing back from his .612 of a year ago and being closer to his .728 career average.  I’m highly confident he will bounce back at least part of the way, as all the projections suggest.  If he doesn’t, we have strong alternatives including Urias and the various younger players.  This is a situation Hyde needs to manage properly rather than just sticking Frazier there no matter how he’s doing.  But, we should see significant improvement at this position in 2023.

3B (.675, 87): Urias was decent last year but the others who manned 3B largely weren’t.   Henderson figures to be the primary 3B and will be a big improvement there.   Urias can also man the spot.   So, there should be a lot of improvement at 3B.

SS (.641, 84):  This is unpredictable.  While it’s tempting to say there’s nowhere to go but up, Mateo was absolutely horrific outside of his two month hot streak.   Will he hit like the “cold” version of Mateo all year without the corresponding hot streak?   Will he figure out how to recapture the hot streak and have more stretches like that this year?   Will Hyde pull the plug and move Henderson there, or get Ortiz called up?   There are lots of unanswered questions and again I think Hyde’s managing will come into play here.   I’d bet on improvement, but it’s not a slam dunk.

LF (.764, 110): We actually did well here last year.   Mostly this will be about whether Hays stays healthy, whether Stowers develops, and whether we see Cowser at some point.  I think we’d be happy to hold serve here.   

CF (.727, 111): This is mostly about Mullins stays healthy.   If so, status quo.   

RF (.690, 93):  Those low numbers might surprise you, just as the good numbers in LF may have surprised you.  The main reason is that Santander hit much better when playing LF (.952) than he did playing RF (.738), as did Hays (.715/.680), and Mancini fared extremely badly in the 10 games he played in RF (.438).   I see the LF/RF discrepancy as just one of those fluky things that happens in a season, and it’s probably better to just look at the corner OF spots combined and call them (.727/101).  Overall, I think it’s a toss up whether there is improvement or regression in the corner OF.  Will Hays and Santander stay healthy?   Will Santander regress after his best full season, or build on it?   Do we get first-half Hays or second half Hays?   How does Stowers develop, and when do we see Cowser, if at all?  Stay tuned.  

DH (.701, 98): This spot could go either way.  The loss of Mancini hurts, as he was quite comfortable at DH, whereas Santander and Mountcastle struggled there.   Overall I’d guess a slight decline at the DH spot with Mancini gone but Adley getting another 10 games or so there, where he did very well last year.  

Big picture, there’s lots of good opportunity for improvement in the infield.  The outfield and DH are more of a toss up.  Overall, I think if the team is well-managed we should see decent improvement in 2023.   Health will be a factor, as we’re almost sure to experience more injuries in 2023 than 2022, but hopefully the younger depth can cover more ably than the Nevins’ of the world did last year.  The roster is pretty well constructed to be flexible and resilient when injuries do strike.  

Are these the actual numbers from last season or are they projected numbers.   If projected from who?

[MarCakes21]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

1C.  The Wall should not be an excuse.  The players have to adjust.  Hitting fly ball out to left that would have been homers in 2021 is not a hitting strategy.   Its the players responsibility to make the adjustment and its the pitching coach job to help them.  Otherwise why of the coaches there?

 

The wall is certainly an excuse.  These players all have approaches and they're not dependent on the dimensions of a park that you can instantly turn on and off.  These are ingrained habits.  How do you go from playing a 3 game series at Fenway (monster and short porch) then back to a 3 game series at home.  Only real option would be managerial, all RH pop up hitters at fenway and LF at home.

[btdart20]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Interestingly, in the AL last year, teams had a higher OPS at home (.711 to .692), but scored more runs on the road (average 343) than at home (335).  I doubt that happens often.  

How did OBP compare?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Are these the actual numbers from last season or are they projected numbers.   If projected from who?

Actual numbers from last year.