John Angelos/Mike Elias 1 hour interview 105.7 today

[OriolesMagic83]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know. There are currently a lot of guys on the 40 man that could get tomorrow and there will need to be guys added between now and then, so there will be a natural 25-30% turnover anyway.

Will ME make trades? I don’t know. I don’t think they will look to trade guys at the deadline, at least from the ML roster, ala last year..unless they aren’t playing well.

Could they look to move prospects for an upgrade?  Yea I could see that although ME has yet to show us he can or will do that. 
 

You say the market dictates it. Any thought that you change your thought process and adjust to what the market is giving you?

Heres the real problem…Elias doesn’t believe this team is ready yet. He obviously didn’t last year and hasn’t done anything this offseason to make you think he thinks it now.

It May happen because young guys really develop and excel but he is telling you he isn’t buying it yet and Angelos is telling you he isn’t either and even if he does buy it, he doesn’t care anyway.

So that’s the real issue here..belief in this team being able to legitimately compete for the playoffs. 

If the O's aren't ready to compete this year, will they ever be ready.  The O's have last year's #1 prospect in the lineup already, this year's #1 prospect probably in the lineup on opening day and a pitcher who most experts say is the #1 pitching prospect in baseball.  I know Elias' hands are somewhat tied by Angelos in regards to spending.  We'll probably never know to what extent, but when is this team going to be ready?

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the O's aren't ready to compete this year, will they ever be ready.  The O's have last year's #1 prospect in the lineup already, this year's #1 prospect probably in the lineup on opening day and a pitcher who most experts say is the #1 pitching prospect in baseball.  I know Elias' hands are somewhat tied by Angelos in regards to spending.  We'll probably never know to what extent, but when is this team going to be ready?

I’d like to say next year but what if they win 79 games this year? Will they do a lot to improve the team?

We know attendance isn’t going to be strong again and we know JA doesn’t believe in spending money to make money, so who knows.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d like to say next year but what if they win 79 games this year? Will they do a lot to improve the team?

We know attendance isn’t going to be strong again and we know JA doesn’t believe in spending money to make money, so who knows.

Only positive I can think of is every day is one day closer to the next non Angelos owner. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d like to say next year but what if they win 79 games this year? Will they do a lot to improve the team?

We know attendance isn’t going to be strong again and we know JA doesn’t believe in spending money to make money, so who knows.

What do we know about attendance?   I expect it to be up a few 100 k.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

What do we know about attendance?   I expect it to be up a few 100 k.

It may be…but it’s not going to drive ownership to say,  let’s spend a lot of money.  If they make the playoffs and get some extra revenue, that may help but I’m guessing you see another offseason of modest signings and perhaps the same or lower payroll depending on what you do with guys like Mullins and Santander.

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It may be…but it’s not going to drive ownership to say,  let’s spend a lot of money.  If they make the playoffs and get some extra revenue, that may help but I’m guessing you see another offseason of modest signings and perhaps the same or lower payroll depending on what you do with guys like Mullins and Santander.

I try not to form strong opinions about the financial limits they actually have because we really don't know the details. With that said, the attendance argument feels like BS to me. They had 1.3m fans last year, but were closer to 2-2.3m/year during their last playoff window. If the average ticket price is $30, over 850k additional fans, that's an extra $25.5/year. While that's not nothing, that can't be the justification between payroll around where they are ($70m?) and league average ($140m?)

FWIW I'm not at all sure if this math is taking into account all the issues that may be at play.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I try not to form strong opinions about the financial limits they actually have because we really don't know the details. With that said, the attendance argument feels like BS to me. They had 1.3m fans last year, but were closer to 2-2.3m/year during their last playoff window. If the average ticket price is $30, over 850k additional fans, that's an extra $25.5/year. While that's not nothing, that can't be the justification between payroll around where they are ($70m?) and league average ($140m?)

FWIW I'm not at all sure if this math is taking into account all the issues that may be at play.

Yes, an extra millionish fans matters.

But we aren’t talking about that many right now.

[Going Underground]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

What do we know about attendance?   I expect it to be up a few 100 k.

We shall see. They did lose a few home games against the Yankees and Red Sox. MLB did give the Orioles two weekends against the Yankees and one against the Mets. The other potential bigger draws ,the Cardinals and Dodgers are during the week. Don't see a major increase in attendance, maybe 100,000 or so. I guess how they are playing also matters somewhat. Walk ups average about  3,000 or so per game. More on the weekends, of course.

Did you see the Orioles schedule after the All -Star break?

After the Marlins are the  Dodgers,Rays, Phillies, Yankees,Blue Jays,Mets,Astros, Mariners and Padres 

[emmett16]

I don't think they plan on signing any high priced FAs.  They are saving their money to sign our own guys when they get expensive.  Seems they are betting on their abilities to develop players. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, an extra millionish fans matters.

But we aren’t talking about that many right now.

Like I said, it's not nothing. It's just that it's only 1/3 of what's needed to get to the middle of the pack of payrolls if the numbers are as simple as $30/additional ticket sold. I don't trust them when they hold that up as the reason to not increase payroll now, especially when by increasing payroll you're likely increasing attendance.

Edited January 24, 2023 by ThisIsBirdland

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Did you see the Orioles schedule after the All -Star break?

After the Marlins are the  Dodgers,Rays, Phillies, Yankees,Blue Jays,Mets,Astros, Mariners and Padres 

Too bad for those teams that the O's are going to be a juggernaut.

[sportsfan8703]

The FA SP market was crazy this offseason. Teams that weren’t predicted to spend spent. Almost every pitcher got more than projected. Heck, even Lyles did quite well. 
 

Should Elias have beaten the 4/68 to Taillon?  What does that look like for the Orioles?  4/75 or 4/80?  Then there was Pablo Lopez, but they wanted MLB top talent for him, and only Mullins fit their needs. Did we want Elias to trade Mullins for Lopez?  CF is the one position we don’t have immediate depth for. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The FA SP market was crazy this offseason. Teams that weren’t predicted to spend spent. Almost every pitcher got more than projected. Heck, even Lyles did quite well. 
 

Should Elias have beaten the 4/68 to Taillon?  What does that look like for the Orioles?  4/75 or 4/80?  Then there was Pablo Lopez, but they wanted MLB top talent for him, and only Mullins fit their needs. Did we want Elias to trade Mullins for Lopez?  CF is the one position we don’t have immediate depth for. 

This is where I find myself coming back to as well. You don't make moves just for the sake of making them, if they don't line up with your value assessment and long-term planning. Outside of the Bassitt deal, which I think they could've justified going a little higher on than Toronto, I haven't felt like they really missed out on a slam dunk signing. Eovaldi, Taillon and Lopez just didn't look like the pieces you go all out for.

[Since1984]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know. There are currently a lot of guys on the 40 man that could get tomorrow and there will need to be guys added between now and then, so there will be a natural 25-30% turnover anyway.

Will ME make trades? I don’t know. I don’t think they will look to trade guys at the deadline, at least from the ML roster, ala last year..unless they aren’t playing well.

Could they look to move prospects for an upgrade?  Yea I could see that although ME has yet to show us he can or will do that. 
 

You say the market dictates it. Any thought that you change your thought process and adjust to what the market is giving you?

Heres the real problem…Elias doesn’t believe this team is ready yet. He obviously didn’t last year and hasn’t done anything this offseason to make you think he thinks it now.

It May happen because young guys really develop and excel but he is telling you he isn’t buying it yet and Angelos is telling you he isn’t either and even if he does buy it, he doesn’t care anyway.

So that’s the real issue here..belief in this team being able to legitimately compete for the playoffs. 

I think Elias needs to adjust to the market. Is he being to careful in these early stages of the competition, to avoid making crucial mistakes? 
 

not sure on that, but wish we had an example of his SP FA offers. Hoping by this time next year he does some real activity that makes the O’s a true contender.

[HakunaSakata]

29 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The FA SP market was crazy this offseason. Teams that weren’t predicted to spend spent. Almost every pitcher got more than projected. Heck, even Lyles did quite well. 
 

Should Elias have beaten the 4/68 to Taillon?  What does that look like for the Orioles?  4/75 or 4/80?  Then there was Pablo Lopez, but they wanted MLB top talent for him, and only Mullins fit their needs. Did we want Elias to trade Mullins for Lopez?  CF is the one position we don’t have immediate depth for. 

No, but he should have beaten 3/$63M for Chris Bassitt or considered making a run at Verlander (if he really wanted to make a splash). Missing out on Bassitt at that price / number of years when you run a team that's in desperate need of a solid veteran SP is pretty much inexcusable unless you're being ridiculously cheap.