Keith Law’s O’s top 20

[btdart20]

8 minutes ago, deward said:

I'm a MSU alumnus, so I'm biased on Westburg. I watched him play there, I really, really want to see him in an O's uniform on a nightly basis. I'm not really approaching this on any type of objective team-building merits. There hasn't been a Bulldog playing regularly for the O's since Palmeiro's disastrous second stint, so I've been waiting for a while for this. I should probably be happier about the Frazier signing for this reason, but I just can't do it.

How was the time warp moving out of Starkville? 

I did some time in Hattiesburg at Southern Miss.  

[deward]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

How was the time warp moving out of Starkville? 

I did some time in Hattiesburg at Southern Miss.  

I was there back in the 90s, so not too bad. I remember all the USM fans showing up for baseball games and complaining about how we were too scared to put them on the football schedule 

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, deward said:

I was there back in the 90s, so not too bad. I remember all the USM fans showing up for baseball games and complaining about how we were too scared to put them on the football schedule 

I was there in 93-95.  We usually had pretty good pitching but we never in the same tier as the bigger schools.  Did you play?

Same with football.  It was more about team talent than top-line talent.  We beat LSU in Tiger Stadium in '94 in overtime.  Best college football I've ever been to in person.  

I made it up to Starkville for homecoming once.  

[deward]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I was there in 93-95.  We usually had pretty good pitching but we never in the same tier as the bigger schools.  Did you play?

Same with football.  It was more about team talent than top-line talent.  We beat LSU in Tiger Stadium in '94 in overtime.  Best college football I've ever been to in person.  

I made it up to Starkville for homecoming once.  

96-98 for me. No, I just went to a bunch of games since they were free for students and it was a five minute walk from my dorm. Good times. That was the peak of the Jackie Sherill era too, so the football team was actually good for once. Best game I went to was when #1 Bama came to town and lost on a last second field goal. 

 

[Sports Guy]

What would be your personal top 10 rankings right now?

And has it changed as the offseason has gone on, reading these opinions, scouting reports, etc…?

 

Mine has changed 

 

1) Gunnar

2) Holliday

3) GRod

4) Mayo

5) Hall

6) Westburg 

7) Ortiz

8 Cowser

9) Basallo

10) Kjerstad 

Norby and Beavers right behind.  They move up quickly once Gunnar and GRod graduate.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

I think the upside of Mayo and Holliday and questions on Westburg's defense have me here. Also, I think Hall is most likely a reliever.  Not ready to put Basallo top ten just yet.  Still think Cowser has best offensive combination of all our guys.

1. Henderson

2. Holliday

3. Rodriguez 

4. Cowser

5. Mayo

6. Ortiz

7. Westburg

8. Hall

9. Norby

10. Kjerstad 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What would be your personal top 10 rankings right now?

And has it changed as the offseason has gone on, reading these opinions, scouting reports, etc…?

Not sure if it's changed, but for me it's:

1. Gunnar
2. Grayson
3. Holliday
4. Hall
5. Cowser - I believe in the bat and love the emerging LH power
6. Mayo - want to see the breakout
7. Ortiz - feel like he could be as high as 4
8. Westburg - slightly less bat maybe than Norby, but better athlete?
9. Norby - think you find a position for that bat
10. Kjerstad - I think they like him, which is why he was where he was when he got injured last year

Close: Povich (which is more bullish), Beavers, Basallo, McDermott (love what I'm hearing, hoping for a breakout)

 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What would be your personal top 10 rankings right now?

And has it changed as the offseason has gone on, reading these opinions, scouting reports, etc…?

 

Gunnar, Jackson, Grayson - I'm still believing that Grayson is a TOR.  But my hopes for Jackson have grown the most since I saw some of his EV numbers.  For as skinny as he is now, he could be a beast with just modest growth.  (I went to the card store with my sons yesterday and my oldest came home with Jackson's Bowman chrome to complete what he called "the Mt. Rushmore of O's future!"  Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, and Jackson)

Mayo, Hall, Cowser - Mayo's ceiling, a bit of hope for Hall sticking in the rotation, and my belief in Cowser's hit tool put them here.  

Ortiz, Westburg - I like the high floor of these guys.  Ortiz and Westburg are all around solid contributors with a chance for more.  

Povich, Kjerstad - I know I'm higher on Povich than many, but a high K% and the potential to add 15 lbs on his lean 185 lbs frame adds some nice projectability.  Plus, a LHP at the mid/back-end of the rotation would fit nicely in OPACY!  And Kjerstad has easy power!  

Basallo and Beavers are the fast followers when Gunnar and Grayson graduate.  They're in the same tier as Kjerstad and Povich IMO.

Norby's the honorable mention.  Even if he's a solid 2B, the other IF guys have more defensive upside or flexibility.

 

Biggest boost of confidence this off-season:  Jackson because I learned about his EV.  

Most question marks raised this off-season:  Cowser.  The K% concerns were there all season but it's a bit justifiable since he was tapping into more power.  His Babip in Bowie was bloated, so that questions a good bit of those stats.  But Tony's concern over his splits is warranted.  I think his bad PAs vs. LHP in Aberdeen has more to do with the environment than his ability. 

Vs. LHP in Aberdeen - babip .286, 41.2% K%, and 14.7% BB% (68 PA in Aberdeen)

Vs. LHP in 2022 - babip .311, 33.5% K%, and 12.7% BB%

Vs. LHP in Bowie/Norfolk - babip .326, 27.8% K%, and 11.1% BB%. (48 PA at Norfolk and 42 at Bowie)

I'm basically tossing out 2022 Aberdeen stats vs. LHP because I don't think he saw the ball well.  But 27.8% K% without A ball stats still isn't great.  31.2% at AAA and 23.8% at AA.

One more interesting thing about the near equal Norfolk and Bowie PAs vs. LHP above, it took 100 less PAs to reach that number in AAA.  42 out of his 124 AAA PAs were vs. LHP.  I don't think 38+% of pitchers (especially SPs) in the league are LHP.  I suspect that (plus a simple adjustment period moving up a level) put a lid on his AAA stats.  Though his 76 PAs vs. RHP in AAA weren't great either.  Obviously, we're talking about SSS here too.  But it's what we have to work with...

[emmett16]

My Top ten would be:

1. Gunnar - He's in the league and performing

2. Holiday - I think he has the highest upside in the system

3. GRod - He's ready to perform at MLB after dominating minors

4. Hall - The stuff is about as good as I've ever seen...and he's a lefty.  High ceiling, high floor

5. Mayo - Light tower power and crazy ceiling for a young guy

6. Ortiz - Defensive wiz in AAA ready to make an impact defensively at MLB

7. Westburg - Jack of all trades, master of none - ready to contribute to MLB

8. Cowser - Already in AAA ready to get his chance

9. Kjerstad - Massive hit tool, but still a little ways to go

10. Basallo - Furthest away, but athletic specimen with a super high ceiling 

11. Norby - Having success in the high Minors, ready to play MLB

12. Beavers - Freak show skill-set with a super high ceiling 

[Tony-OH]

I don't think it's a reach to make Holliday the number 2 prospect over Grayson and honestly, you could build a case for him to be #1 if he shows no platoon issues like Henderson has currently. He only had 20 PAs against them between the FCL and Delmarva so it's way too much of a SSS to make any conclusions.

As for the rest, I'm not going to change my list until we start to hear and see things this spring. At the start of the season, I'll have the power rankings started and we'll start this process all over! 

That's when the fun really starts!!

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think it's a reach to make Holliday the number 2 prospect over Grayson and honestly, you could build a case for him to be #1 if he shows no platoon issues like Henderson has currently. He only had 20 PAs against them between the FCL and Delmarva so it's way too much of a SSS to make any conclusions.

 

Gunnar will be off the list entirely about 7-8 games into the season, when he passes 140 AB (he’s at 116 now).   

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Gunnar will be off the list entirely about 7-8 games into the season, when he passes 140 AB (he’s at 116 now).   

I have little doubt Holliday will be the #1 prospect by mid season if not before. Hopefully because both Gunnar and GRod have graduated and he's doing well.

[btdart20]

On 2/22/2023 at 5:30 PM, btdart20 said:

Biggest boost of confidence this off-season:  Jackson because I learned about his EV.  

Most question marks raised this off-season:  Cowser.  The K% concerns were there all season but it's a bit justifiable since he was tapping into more power.  His Babip in Bowie was bloated, so that questions a good bit of those stats.  But Tony's concern over his splits is warranted.  I think his bad PAs vs. LHP in Aberdeen has more to do with the environment than his ability. 

Vs. LHP in Aberdeen - babip .286, 41.2% K%, and 14.7% BB% (68 PA in Aberdeen)

Vs. LHP in 2022 - babip .311, 33.5% K%, and 12.7% BB%

Vs. LHP in Bowie/Norfolk - babip .326, 27.8% K%, and 11.1% BB%. (48 PA at Norfolk and 42 at Bowie)

I'm basically tossing out 2022 Aberdeen stats vs. LHP because I don't think he saw the ball well.  But 27.8% K% without A ball stats still isn't great.  31.2% at AAA and 23.8% at AA.

One more interesting thing about the near equal Norfolk and Bowie PAs vs. LHP above, it took 100 less PAs to reach that number in AAA.  42 out of his 124 AAA PAs were vs. LHP.  I don't think 38+% of pitchers (especially SPs) in the league are LHP.  I suspect that (plus a simple adjustment period moving up a level) put a lid on his AAA stats.  Though his 76 PAs vs. RHP in AAA weren't great either.  Obviously, we're talking about SSS here too.  But it's what we have to work with...

I’m not ready to rearrange my rankings, but Kjerstad is trending up the list.

Plus, I wanted to bump the Cowser vs LHP research I did earlier.  His splits were heavily weighted to Aberdeen which is tough on LHH to begin with.  AA was ok.  And AAA he faced an abnormally high amount of LHP to start there.  

Still an area of growth, but not a show-stopper either.