Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[Can_of_corn]

I think he probably stats the season in the majors, mainly due to the carrot of an additional draft pick and the stick of the player being able to earn a full year of service time.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If I had to make a prediction, I'd go with Grayson being on the opening day roster. I'd like to think the Orioles are in contend now mode and Elias won't slow walk any prospects that could be the difference between playoffs or no playoffs.

I hope you're right.

[StottyByNature]

I get being guarded in any optimism.  It's been a while since the O's have had a big time pitching prospect.  The ones that have come up have rarely done well in their first year.  Guys that come to mind are Arrieta, Matusz, Maine, Loewen, Gausman.  Bundy was pretty good but if I recall he came out of the pen at first.  Going back further Hayden Penn and even Erik Bedard wasn't anything special in his first year.  Britton was supposed to be a can't-miss guy and he pitched to a 4.61 his first year.

If GRod puts up an ERA at 4 or under he'd be bucking a long trend.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Your comment made me curious what the league average ERA was last season. I was shocked to find out is was under 4.00 (3.97). Now I'm wondering if we have any pitchers on our staff, other than Rodriguez, who will be "league average". I'm not so sure...

My guess is that you looked up the league average for all pitchers, including relievers.  My sense is that the league average ERA for SPs would be higher.

[O's84]

3.50 to 3.75 range.

[Mooreisbetter27]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think he probably stats the season in the majors, mainly due to the carrot of an additional draft pick and the stick of the player being able to earn a full year of service time.

This is where I am.  I think losing the year of Adley will be as much motivation as anything to put him on the opening day roster. 

With everything Elias has said and the Adley thing last year, I'd be fairly surprised if they sent him down.  Unless he's injured or has an absolutely horrific spring training.  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Number5 said:

My guess is that you looked up the league average for all pitchers, including relievers.  My sense is that the league average ERA for SPs would be higher.

It used to be more pronounced.  Last year, 4.05 for starters, 3.86 for relievers.  

[yark14]

Utter domination.

[Sports Guy]

George Kirby, a highly ranked prospect (not as high as Grayson) was a rookie last year.

He had 25 starts and threw 130 ML innings. He had a 3.39 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 9.2 K rate, 1.5 BB rate and a .9 HR rate.

I would be ecstatic if Grayson was able to pull that off.

[HakunaSakata]

34 minutes ago, Number5 said:

My guess is that you looked up the league average for all pitchers, including relievers.  My sense is that the league average ERA for SPs would be higher.

I did. I actually had a hard time finding the latter. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's not that I don't think he won't be a good pitcher moving forward, I just think he's going to have some speedbumps along the way.  An ERA north of 4.5 wouldn't surprise me along with some nagging injuries that require him to be shut down early.

 

Perfectly reasonable take. I'm just busting your chops because I'm usually the one with the glass half empty take. Guess those happy pills are working  

[Explosivo]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm expecting him to be disappointing.  Just a gut feeling.  

Low expectations, easy way to happiness. Negative expectations, easy way to depression. 

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Perfectly reasonable take. I'm just busting your chops because I'm usually the one with the glass half empty take. Guess those happy pills are working  

No, I know.  I just think sometimes we look at our prospects and kind of take for granted that they're all going to pan out and be good.  We know Rutschman is.  We have a really good idea about Henderson, it looks like he's going to be fine.

We can't hit on all these guys, they're not all going to be good players.  And I think drafting and developing pitching is the hardest thing to do, so if one of these guys is going to fail or, at the very least, not live up to expectations I'm going to bet it's a pitcher.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

Low expectations, easy way to happiness. Negative expectations, easy way to depression. 

Low expectations means you're never disappointed.

[Big Mac]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think he probably stats the season in the majors, mainly due to the carrot of an additional draft pick and the stick of the player being able to earn a full year of service time.

On the flip side, given his innings limits and how it seems like pitchers haven't fared well in ROY recently, they may not view the likelihood of him finishing in top 2 of ROY to be that high.  

SG just mentioned Kirby's year last year and he finished a distant 6th in ROY voting.