Matchups

[wildcard]

There are a lot of different matchups that Hyde will be analyzing but this post is about starting pitching matchup.   What does past performance say about how the   O's starters have done versus the O's opponents.

Knowing how starters have done vs the other teams hitters doesn'i tell the manager everything.   But it tells him something.   It has to be balanced with how the starters are pitching at the time and what pitches  have been added since he last saw that team.  

I am not a big believer in Irvin because I think a lot of his stats are better playing in the Oakland Coliseum than they will be with the O's.   And his away stats may be a better reflection of how he will pitch for the O's.    But.....

Its pretty clear that Irvin and Gibbon will be in the rotation and if he doesn't entirely suck in ST GRod will also be starting.

So here are how the O's matchups look in terms of OPS for the first four series:

Irvin      

Boston   519

Texas      522

Yankees    807

As             818

 

Wells    

Boston  522

Rangers   333

Yankees   630

As            1429        

 

GRod    N/A

 

Gibson

Boston     1146

Rangers    1022

Yankees    1039

As              901

 

Bradish

Boston   847

Rangers   417

Yankees   961

As             N/A

 

Kremer

Boston 940

Texas   1011

Yankees    999

As             513

 

Voth

Boston   1221

Rangers   742

Yankees   1333

A's              620

Those are the 7 O's starters that could be used to begin the O's season.   Irvin's matchup are the best.   Surprisingly Wells is second.   GRod will get his starts to begin the season.   Gibson's matchup OPS look poor but he will be in the rotation because they are paying him 10m to be there.

According to these matchups Kremer could begin the season in the pen.   Voth is likely to be in the pen as well.

Here are the best matchup considering that Gibson has to be in the rotation.

 

March 30      Boston  Irvin    519

Match 31   off

April   1       Boston  Wells     522

2                Boston   GRod      N/A

3                  Rangers  Bradish      417

4                 Rangers   Irvin           522

5                  Rangers   Gibson      1022

6                   Yankees   Wells          620

7                   Off

8                    Yankees   GRod   N/A

9                    Yankees     Irvin       807

10                    As            Bradish      N/A

11                    As           Gibson        901

12                    As            Kremer       513

The numbers surprised me and it may not be what Elias/Hyde/Holt decide to do, but I thought it was interesting.

Edited February 12, 2023 by wildcard

[OriolesMagic83]

Looking at Gibson's numbers, I think he needs to start the year on the DL. 

[InsideCoroner]

How do we have data on the A’s hitters vs Irvin when Oakland was the only AL team he ever pitched for? Is this their OPS from him tossing batting practice?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

How do we have data on the A’s hitters vs Irvin when Oakland was the only AL team he ever pitched for? Is this their OPS from him tossing batting practice?

Irvin pitched 19 games for the Philly before he pitched for Oakland.  It must have been from that time.

[InsideCoroner]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Irvin pitched 19 games for the Philly before he pitched for Oakland.  It must have been from that time.

Irvin never pitched against Oakland while with Philadelphia.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Irvin pitched 19 games for the Philly before he pitched for Oakland.  It must have been from that time.

Can I ask where you got your data?  It doesn’t match what I see on BB-ref.   

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

Irvin never pitched against Oakland while with Philadelphia.

You are right.  But three of the As players have faced him with other teams.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/39869/cole-irvin

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Can I ask where you got your data?  It doesn’t match what I see on BB-ref.   

The data is from ESPN.  Go the O's roster.  Click on the O's pitcher and Bat vs Pitch will show who on the opposing team he has faced.

[eddie83]

I don’t see any reason they would use Irvin the way you are projecting. You would want him to avoid Boston and NYY. 
 

The Red Sox have some lefties in their lineup but they also have some platoon types plus dealing with the Monstah. The last team I would want him facing is NYY. I think you throw him vs Tex and Oakland. Makes a ton of sense if Grod is in rotation for his first career appearance to occur vs Texas. 
 

My way too early guess is 

Gibson 

Kremer 

Bradish

Grod

Irvin 

 

Kremer stays Home Opener. 

[wildcard]

50 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I don’t see any reason they would use Irvin the way you are projecting. You would want him to avoid Boston and NYY. 
 

The Red Sox have some lefties in their lineup but they also have some platoon types plus dealing with the Monstah. The last team I would want him facing is NYY. I think you throw him vs Tex and Oakland. Makes a ton of sense if Grod is in rotation for his first career appearance to occur vs Texas. 
 

My way too early guess is 

Gibson 

Kremer 

Bradish

Grod

Irvin 

 

Kremer stays Home Opener. 

Good points.  I was just looking at the Matchups.   But there are other things to consider.  And I do think that Irvin numbers are skewed because of pitching in the Oakland Coliseum.

[Aristotelian]

No need to manage in March like it's a playoff series. I definitely wouldn't make decisions based on small N samples. The only teams Irvin has accumulated stats against are in the West. Gibson has more of a track record but how many players in the Red Sox lineup in 2014 will be in the lineup this year (answer: zero). If you were going all out to win each game I would be looking at more macro factors like L/R balance, flyball vs groundball hitters etc.

Even so I think they will be setting things based more on who they want to throw the most innings: some combo of Gibson/Irvin at the top, Grayson at the bottom. 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

No need to manage in March like it's a playoff series. I definitely wouldn't make decisions based on small N samples. The only teams Irvin has accumulated stats against are in the West. Gibson has more of a track record but how many players in the Red Sox lineup in 2014 will be in the lineup this year (answer: zero). If you were going all out to win each game I would be looking at more macro factors like L/R balance, flyball vs groundball hitters etc.

Even so I think they will be setting things based more on who they want to throw the most innings: some combo of Gibson/Irvin at the top, Grayson at the bottom. 

I don't agree that they should set things up to give Gibson and Irvin the most starts.   They should pitch whoever they think will help them win.

The O's have 7 starters plus Hall  and  Means sometime later in the season.   They should be able to supply more than enough innings for the season.   Pitch the ones that are the most effective.  Just win.

Edited February 13, 2023 by wildcard

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Good points.  I was just looking at the Matchups.   But there are other things to consider.  And I do think that Irvin numbers are skewed because of pitching in the Oakland Coliseum.

Sure I think pitching in Oakland helped him. I just think it makes sense for him to avoid certain teams and parks when possible. 
 

Off days by month.

March 1

April 3

May 3

June 6

July 5   (4 at All Star break)

August 3

September 2 

 

I don’t understand why any team would have so many off days in June. Kids are getting out of school and weather is less likely for rainouts. Would be curious how many teams are similar. 

I will say this. Not only is the schedule in terms of who we play harder in the second half so is the calendar itself. Right after the break they play tough teams and 23/24 days. Then after one off day it’s 32/34. EVERY series except the first one vs Miami is vs a playoff team. Others have brought it up but they need to play well in the first half. The pitching should be in good shape heading into the break in terms of usage. Post break is very difficult and pitching will be tested to say the least. 

Edited February 13, 2023 by eddie83

[Aristotelian]

40 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't agree that they should set things up to give Gibson and Irvin the most starts.   They should pitch whoever they think will help them win.

The O's have 7 starters plus Hall  and  Means sometime later in the season.   They should be able to supply more than enough innings for the season.   Pitch the ones that are the most effective.  Just win.

In that case, Akin for 1, Grayson for 3, and then the bullpen for the W. 

[interloper]

We just gotta play the games, man.  No need to overthink it.