Fangraphs updated playoff odds

[btdart20]

MLB Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball

I don't recall what it was earlier, but they've got us with 9.9% playoff odds.  

I think they're high on the Red Sox, White Sox, and (to some extent) the Rays.  The CHW are tough to get my head around, but I'm not buying.  And low on the Blue Jays.

Six Takeaways From Our Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball - One of Ben's six takeaways focuses on the O's.

[Frobby]

“To my mind, Baltimore’s error bands are the widest in baseball this year. They have a team made up of young up-and-comers, which means both a wider range of potential outcomes and less certain playing time. If they’re in the race in July, they might add at the trade deadline, or their prospects might develop at a completely different rate than we expect. That goes both ways, though; they’re still in talent accumulation mode, and didn’t hesitate to subtract at the 2022 deadline in pursuit of long-term success. Maybe we’re low on their chances (for what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectusagrees with us), but I think they have the least certain outlook in baseball.”

Not too surprising to hear that.  Our season could go lots of different directions.  

[TommyPickles]

I think Boston is going to be awful this season.

[Ripken]

41 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I think Boston is going to be awful this season.

Yep. 

[Can_of_corn]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/six-takeaways-from-our-playoff-odds/

Quote

The biggest disagreement between our playoff odds and the ZiPS odds is what to make of the Orioles. ZiPS has them as a roughly .500 team, while we think they’re in the 75-win range. That’s enough to take their playoff odds from questionable to doubtful, in NFL injury parlance, or from 28.7% to 9.9% if you want the math of it.

Quote

To my mind, Baltimore’s error bands are the widest in baseball this year. They have a team made up of young up-and-comers, which means both a wider range of potential outcomes and less certain playing time. If they’re in the race in July, they might add at the trade deadline, or their prospects might develop at a completely different rate than we expect. That goes both ways, though; they’re still in talent accumulation mode, and didn’t hesitate to subtract at the 2022 deadline in pursuit of long-term success. Maybe we’re low on their chances (for what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus agrees with us), but I think they have the least certain outlook in baseball.

 

[waroriole]

They must be high if they have Boston with a 3x greater chance of making the playoffs as us. 

[NCRaven]

Well, clearly ZIPs is better.  But, only because I want it to be.  I definitely agree that the O's may have one of the largest ranges of win possibilities in baseball.  But, I also think that while stuff could go south, there's a lot of reason to believe that there could be big areas of improvement.  I have confidence that Rodriguez will do well, the talent is just too good.  Irvin and Gibson are studs, but they are competent veteran starters.  Hall is a huge wildcard (not Wildcard) with crazy stuff but erratic results.  Adley and Gunnar are stars.  Mountcastle is due for a rebound if last years Statcast numbers are to be believed.  For '23, I'm a glass half full guy for sure.

[JR Oriole]

17 hours ago, waroriole said:

They must be high if they have Boston with a 3x greater chance of making the playoffs as us. 

Looking at the Red Sox roster, they have a fair amount of proven major league hitters (Hernandez, Devers, Turner, Duvall, Verdugo, Arroyo). Starting rotation has some "names" in it, but health is an issue.  Bullpen is pretty decent.  Because they have RED SOX on their jerseys, they are always prone to being overrated. But in no way do I think they are awful.  They are never "awful."  They have lost more than 90 games all of 2 times in the last 55 full seasons.  

[ChuckS]

51 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

Looking at the Red Sox roster, they have a fair amount of proven major league hitters (Hernandez, Devers, Turner, Duvall, Verdugo, Arroyo). Starting rotation has some "names" in it, but health is an issue.  Bullpen is pretty decent.  Because they have RED SOX on their jerseys, they are always prone to being overrated. But in no way do I think they are awful.  They are never "awful."  They have lost more than 90 games all of 2 times in the last 55 full seasons.  

We want them to be awful.  Confusing "want" with "reality" is a common error. 

I agree.  The Red Sox are probably an 80-90 win team as currently constructed. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, ChuckS said:

We want them to be awful.  Confusing "want" with "reality" is a common error. 

I agree.  The Red Sox are probably an 80-90 win team as currently constructed. 

I have my doubts about Boston.  I can’t rule out them being a WC contender, but I won’t be surprised if they’re sub-.500 either.   I like our chances a little better than theirs.   

[waroriole]

6 hours ago, JR Oriole said:

Looking at the Red Sox roster, they have a fair amount of proven major league hitters (Hernandez, Devers, Turner, Duvall, Verdugo, Arroyo). Starting rotation has some "names" in it, but health is an issue.  Bullpen is pretty decent.  Because they have RED SOX on their jerseys, they are always prone to being overrated. But in no way do I think they are awful.  They are never "awful."  They have lost more than 90 games all of 2 times in the last 55 full seasons.  

They lost 84 games last year and their offseason saw them lose Bogaerts and possibly Story. I never said they were awful but if you think their playoff odds are 3x better than ours, it’s hard to take you seriously. 

[Can_of_corn]

Here is the whole chart.

[Frobby]

I guess we’ll find out if the nerds who work in the Orioles front office know more than the nerds at Fangraphs.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess we’ll find out if the nerds who work in the Orioles front office know more than the nerds at Fangraphs.

Probably not since baseball.

You can easily make the "correct" decision and still have it blow up in your face.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Probably not since baseball.

You can easily make the "correct" decision and still have it blow up in your face.

Fact.