Fangraphs updated playoff odds

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it's dumb at all to look at the totality of a baseball season and predict that a team you think is superior to another team could overcome a four game deficit in ~100 games.

They might not end up being correct at the end of the day.

The O's are currently at +21 runs, the Jays are at +29.

The key word is it is what they “think”.  Anybody and everybody has an opinion.  And what i think is their opinion makes no sense. 

[Spy Fox]

I noticed the current winning streak pushed the O's past 50% for the first time at Fangraphs. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

They're still in 7th place in the overall odds though, with TB, MIN, TEX, HOU, NYY, TOR all higher up. 

[glenn__davis]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I noticed the current winning streak pushed the O's past 50% for the first time at Fangraphs. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

They're still in 7th place in the overall odds though, with TB, MIN, TEX, HOU, NYY, TOR all higher up. 

Obviously it's still way early but I think the AL playoff picture seems somewhat clear already.

Only 1 team will come out of the central.

It seems like only 2 possible spots out the west.  I suppose both LAA and SEA have plenty of time to make a run if they get hot.

So taking out the division winners it seems like 4 teams fighting for 3 spots.  O's will need to finish above one of NYY, TOR or HOU/TEX.

[tntoriole]

11 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I noticed the current winning streak pushed the O's past 50% for the first time at Fangraphs. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

They're still in 7th place in the overall odds though, with TB, MIN, TEX, HOU, NYY, TOR all higher up. 

Maybe it will change if we sweep the BlowJays .. again .. lol 

Edited June 12, 2023 by tntoriole

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

I noticed the current winning streak pushed the O's past 50% for the first time at Fangraphs. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

They're still in 7th place in the overall odds though, with TB, MIN, TEX, HOU, NYY, TOR all higher up. 

We were briefly over 50% after the Toronto series.

[Aristotelian]

64.7%, ahead of the Yankees (61%) and Jays (53.6%). Astros and Angels hanging in just under 50% each. For some reason the Yanks and Jays are still ahead of us in World Series odds. 

[Spy Fox]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

64.7%, ahead of the Yankees (61%) and Jays (53.6%). Astros and Angels hanging in just under 50% each. For some reason the Yanks and Jays are still ahead of us in World Series odds. 

That's the model saying, the O's standings cushion is big enough to most likely hold, but it still thinks the Jays and Yankees are better teams and more likely to win playoff series if they get there. 

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

That's the model saying, the O's standings cushion is big enough to most likely hold, but it still thinks the Jays and Yankees are better teams and more likely to win playoff series if they get there. 

I'm usually here defending analytics sites like Fangraphs but I think that all "expected playoff odds" calculators don't do a good job of taking into account statcast data, which stabilizes much faster than results-oriented stats would (like wOBA, batting average, etc.)  It's laughable that whatever projection models they are using still have the O's at .495 ROS winning percentage.

 

In general I feel like fangraphs has lost a lot of relevance in the age of statcast data.  Obviously we can still use someone/some group to help us parse the data, and statcast does a good job of that, but in terms of being innovators in the stat space they are no longer at the forefront IMO.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Hallas

[EddeeEddee]

On 6/12/2023 at 9:33 AM, glenn__davis said:

Obviously it's still way early but I think the AL playoff picture seems somewhat clear already.

Only 1 team will come out of the central.

It seems like only 2 possible spots out the west.  I suppose both LAA and SEA have plenty of time to make a run if they get hot.

So taking out the division winners it seems like 4 teams fighting for 3 spots.  O's will need to finish above one of NYY, TOR or HOU/TEX.

The Angels are now in second place in the West, barely ahead of Houston.  The Western Divisions in both the AL and NL are most intriguing.

[Spy Fox]

The current win streak has leapfrogged the O's past the whole contender set of Jays, Rangers, Astros, Twins, and Yankees in the Fangraphs odds, to now be second in the AL behind the Rays.

[SteveA]

17 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

The current win streak has leapfrogged the O's past the whole contender set of Jays, Rangers, Astros, Twins, and Yankees in the Fangraphs odds, to now be second in the AL behind the Rays.

It's not just the win streak.   A lot of those ratings and probabilities are based on pythagorean record so the blowout wins we have had lately suddenly make those automated systems think that we are better than if we had won close games.   Our lack of blowout wins previously consistently had us rated lower than our record would suggest.

[Spy Fox]

18 minutes ago, SteveA said:

It's not just the win streak.   A lot of those ratings and probabilities are based on pythagorean record so the blowout wins we have had lately suddenly make those automated systems think that we are better than if we had won close games.   Our lack of blowout wins previously consistently had us rated lower than our record would suggest.

I don't think a team's season to date pythagorean record is an input. It's not crystal clear but based on what they say here it sounds like the inputs are the individual player projections, then those projections are used to predict each team's runs scored/allowed, and then the RS/RA predictions are turned into a rest of season W-L using the pythagorean record formula.

[Filmstudy]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

It's not just the win streak.   A lot of those ratings and probabilities are based on pythagorean record so the blowout wins we have had lately suddenly make those automated systems think that we are better than if we had won close games.   Our lack of blowout wins previously consistently had us rated lower than our record would suggest.

SteveA this is not directed at you, because I know you know this, but I'm going to expand on this.

Whether or not the RS/RA is a direct input (looking backwards) or based on current lineup, the Orioles recent blowout wins are a huge relief and bear fresh positive portent.

Said otherwise, the biggest problem with the Orioles before 5 games ago was their inability to score runs in sufficient quantity to outslug their opponents when necessary.  Over just this last week the lineup has finally been improved significantly with playing time to Cowser (who himself has yet to hit much), playing time to Westburg (over Frazier/Mateo), the return of Mullins, and no significant drop off in offense from the rest of the order.  

Are the Orioles capable of winning close games?  Sure, but each time they win a nail-biter they tax their bullpen for potential use the next day and they are not deep enough there to rotate a lot of quality (few teams are).  It's a lot more repeatable to throw in a 4+ run win every 4-5 days where you can use some relievers a little farther down the totem pole.

A great example is the best Orioles RS team of all time, the 1969 Orioles (109-53)..

Record in 1 run games: 35-21 (.625)

Record in games decided by 5+ runs: 30-8 (.789)

The 2023 Orioles are still 5 games better than their pythagorean projection going into the All-Star game, but I feel a lot better about the quality of the lineup sustaining a taxed bullpen in the 2nd half.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Filmstudy

[Aristotelian]

At 3 games up on the Rays, we are now favorites to win the division, 48% to 43%. 96.4% for the Rays and O's each to make the playoffs. 

Might be something like Twins-Jays and Astros-Rays in the WC round, with the winners advancing to face the O's and Rangers. 

Upcoming Astros series will be interesting.

[Fiver6565]

Whatever the Twins odds are, they likely should be increased after last night. Jose Ramirez landed a right hook on Tim Anderson’s face and knocked him in his butt in their game. Those two are due for a pretty long suspension each. That should doom Cleveland.