Adam Frazier 2023

[interloper]

22 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Nah, I meant McKenna cause I was comping outfielder to outfielder (J-Rod, Trout) but also more saying the 25th guy on a team isn't always so far removed from the raw skills of the best guy on the team.  

Oh I see, I was speed reading, my bad!

[interloper]

Hey we did a cool trick turning the Frazier thread into a Mountcastle thread. Makes up a little for every thread turning into a Frazier thread. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 4/19/2023 at 2:10 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:

Any idea how long Sprint Speed takes to stabilize? 

Over the past three years, his home-to-first times have been in the low 4.4's (Frazier currently doesn't have enough data points to generate a 2023 HP to 1st number). If you look at the sprint speed leaderboard, everyone in the 25.7 sprint speed neighborhood (Frazier at #244) has a HP to 1st number WAY above that (those with data points at this time, at least). 

Frazier has 22 "competitive runs" at this point, so wondering if there may be some variance in current values.

In case anyone is wondering how sprint speed is calculated:

 

Quick update here - looks like Adam's sprint speed measure has ticked up a tiny bit - from 25.7 ft/s (22nd percentile) to 26.1 ft/s (31st percentile).

This gives some credence to the idea that the data may be a little noisy at this point in the season.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Quick update here - looks like Adam's sprint speed measure has ticked up a tiny bit - from 25.7 ft/s (22nd percentile) to 26.1 ft/s (31st percentile).

This gives some credence to the idea that the data may be a little noisy at this point in the season.

35 out of 40 at second base. (most competitive runs out of the bottom 10)

[Just Regular]

23 minutes ago, interloper said:

Hey we did a cool trick turning the Frazier thread into a Mountcastle thread. Makes up a little for every thread turning into a Frazier thread. 

Kind of like hitting that non-strike you feel you can crush.    Don't try and tell me its an incorrect swing decision!

Frazier's ebbs and flows to me are a nothingburger.   Everyone knows he's at BABIP's mercy any given year - I actually feel players with his shape of skills are some of the lowest variance of all the 800ish big leaguers.    He is what he is.

[emmett16]

11 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I know the guy that owns this is your friend, but I can't help the 5th grader in me laughing hysterically at the URL as I read it in the address bar.

Check their twitter.  Good stuff.  Good info. They highlight a lot of the players they work with.  I’ve been studying hitting for as long as I can remember and what they stumbled upon is that epiphany moment.  It boils down to if you don’t know what your body does good and train to that, your Fd.  So many players get put into the factory of “this is our process learn it or end your career” and that blanket approach/training regimen only works on a small % of their players.  

[emmett16]

When is earliest possible cut bait date? What’s lowest threshold of production pain? 
 

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

When is earliest possible cut bait date? What’s lowest threshold of production pain? 
 

 

Last year we let Chris Owings hang around until June 2 despite a .397 OPS, -0.5 rWAR performance.  Rougned Odor lasted all season with a .632, -0.4 rWAR tally.

Now, we do have better, more major league ready options in 2023, so the leash should be shorter and the acceptable threshold higher.   But honestly I think it would take two months of sub-.600 OPS before the O’s would consider cutting bait with Frazier.  

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Last year we let Chris Owings hang around until June 2 despite a .397 OPS, -0.5 rWAR performance.  Rougned Odor lasted all season with a .632, -0.4 rWAR tally.

Now, we do have better, more major league ready options in 2023, so the leash should be shorter and the acceptable threshold higher.   But honestly I think it would take two months of sub-.600 OPS before the O’s would consider cutting bait with Frazier.  

I can see Frazier moved to a part time players but not released because of the 8m.

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Last year we let Chris Owings hang around until June 2 despite a .397 OPS, -0.5 rWAR performance.  Rougned Odor lasted all season with a .632, -0.4 rWAR tally.

Now, we do have better, more major league ready options in 2023, so the leash should be shorter and the acceptable threshold higher.   But honestly I think it would take two months of sub-.600 OPS before the O’s would consider cutting bait with Frazier.  

His OPS was 750 a week ago and his BABIP is .211.  He isn’t some world beater, but Hyde used him as a pinch runner for Urías the other day  and he got tremendous jumps to win the game.  He makes contact, is fundamentally sound and apparently well-liked. There comes a point where someone in the minors will be a better option but 24 games in is an awfully small sample size and it isn’t like he is constantly hurting the team. 

[sportsfan8703]

Welp, we are where we thought we’d be here. Ortiz is up. Frazier is not one of our top 4 IF on the MLB roster. Top 5 if you include Westburg. 
 

Frazier has had some big moments, and I like his defense, but still puzzling as to what his role will be. He’s definitely ahead of Stowers on the COF depth chart, but Cowser now too?  
 

For a cheap team, he’s a heck of an insurance option. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Welp, we are where we thought we’d be here. Ortiz is up. Frazier is not one of our top 4 IF on the MLB roster. Top 5 if you include Westburg. 
 

Frazier has had some big moments, and I like his defense, but still puzzling as to what his role will be. He’s definitely ahead of Stowers on the COF depth chart, but Cowser now too?  
 

For a cheap team, he’s a heck of an insurance option. 

Now that there's less redundancy with Vavra, I honestly don't mind Frazier on the squad for the moment. I certainly don't expect him to be going anywhere anytime soon, but the more he's a platoon guy the more palatable he is as a player IMO. Just remains to be seen if he will actually be platooned, and if Ortiz is a very temporary addition, etc. 

[RZNJ]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Last year we let Chris Owings hang around until June 2 despite a .397 OPS, -0.5 rWAR performance.  Rougned Odor lasted all season with a .632, -0.4 rWAR tally.

Now, we do have better, more major league ready options in 2023, so the leash should be shorter and the acceptable threshold higher.   But honestly I think it would take two months of sub-.600 OPS before the O’s would consider cutting bait with Frazier.  

The question isn't cutting bait.  He's probably here for the duration.   The question is how much of his playing time gets distributed to others.   

[sportsfan8703]

It’s time to start scrolling through other teams’ rosters to find a bad contract for bad contract swap. Preferably an OF. 
 

@Tony-OH was right on this from jump street. Now Frazier is taking PT away from actual OFs like Stowers and Cowser. 

[Spy Fox]

I noticed today that Frazier has appeared in all 24 games this season. So have Rutschman, Mouuntcastle, and Mullins. 

For Frazier I expect that streak will end soon now that Ortiz is here.