Adam Frazier 2023

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Cano made serious bank.

I see more Robinson Cano in Jackson Holliday than I do Corey Seager. 

[banks703]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Hopefully minus the PEDs.

Robbie Cano during his peak was probably the best pure hitter in all of baseball. He didn't need to add the homeruns. He was a doubles and OPS machine because he struck out less than 100 times a season and played just about every game. His bat-to-ball skills were extremely elite. His 162 game average for his career (counting the down years) is still .301/.351/.488/.839. Robbie Cano minus the PEDs was still a 1st team AL 2B for a solid ten years. 

There are MANY more similarities to Cano for Holliday than there are to guys like Seager and Witt Jr. Jackson Holliday could probably hit Major League pitching today better than 2/3 of the Orioles current roster, possibly more. His bat is going to get him paid, no matter where he puts his feet in the dirt (or grass). 

 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I'll dig up some of them when I have time today but the scouting on Holliday going into his senior year was that he would likely move to CF due to his lack of arm strength and overall defensive limitations at SS. He apparently added 10-15 lbs of muscle going into his senior season and broke out in a big way, then the rest is Orioles history. He was considered a first rounder as a CF. 

The Orioles, like every team in baseball value premium defense up the middle. Jackson Holliday is never going to have the defensive prowess of Joey Ortiz or Jorge Mateo. It's just not there. Look at Witt Jr. out in KC. He was rumored to be moved off of SS because he was awful there last year. He seems to have improved considerably this year though. I suspect if they had someone else in their system highly rated, they would move Witt Jr. off of short. 

I respect the idea that Boras has enough pull within the league to ultimately get his way but I genuinely see the Orioles and Elias being less receptive to that dynamic than in years past with other leadership. Just as much as I groan about them possibly being too reliant on their data, I think that their data will prevail in the end. If roster construction comes down to what their algos tell them is their best alignment, I see that being what they put out on the field. Obviously I write that with many a grains of salt realizing how this year has gone so far as I personally do not believe that they are trotting out their best 9 every night (really, any night in my opinion given that all of Cowser, JW and Ortiz were in Norfolk). 

Hollidays scouting report when he was 16-17 years old really doesn’t matter anymore.

No one feels he has to move off of SS, especially the team that drafted him.

[banks703]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hollidays scouting report when he was 16-17 years old really doesn’t matter anymore.

No one feels he has to move off of SS, especially the team that drafted him.

That's fair. I certainly hope that he can stick at short but personally I see the lack of arm strength as an issue for that. Can it improve? Absolutely. He's 19 years old. He can get a lot better. 

 

Hypothetically, if say Gunnar sticks at SS and becomes the player everyone seems to believe he will become and is an All-Star at the position by the time Holliday is ready for The Show, are you suggesting that the team would move a 24 year old All-Star player who is the superior defender at the position to make room for the prospect? I don't see that happening. 

 

Ryan Mountcastle was cleary not a ML SS when he was drafted yet this org (which for a period of time did include Elias and Sig) allowed him to progress through the minors as an IF. So I am not sure that what the org thinks of Holliday today in A+ is going to be the same as he advances through the system. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by banks703

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, banks703 said:

That's fair. I certainly hope that he can stick at short but personally I see the lack of arm strength as an issue for that. Can it improve? Absolutely. He's 19 years old. He can get a lot better. 

 

Hypothetically, if say Gunnar sticks at SS and becomes the player everyone seems to believe he will become and is an All-Star at the position by the time Holliday is ready for The Show, are you suggesting that the team would move a 24 year old All-Star player who is the superior defender at the position to make room for the prospect? I don't see that happening. 

 

Ryan Mountcastle was cleary not a ML SS when he was drafted yet this org (which for a period of time did include Elias and Sig) allowed him to progress through the minors as an IF. So I am not sure that what the org thinks of Holliday today in A+ is going to be the same as he advances through the system. 

Your hypothetical isn’t realistic because they aren’t moving Henderson to SS because of Holliday.

And show me anyone who is worried about his arm at SS?

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Fair enough, but I don't think 2nd base is a non-premium position.  I think first base is a non-premium position.  I will grant you that I don't think 2nd is as premium as SS but it's not on the other end of the spectrum.

If Jackson Holliday were indeed to move to 2nd base and hits like we all think he can and be a plus defender there, he'll have earning value.  

1B is a premium bat position. Our cleanup hitter the majority of the season has been out 1B. We just haven’t gotten the production from 1B that we need. Maybe O’Hearn is that guy, or Santander transitions there now that Cowser is up. Mayo is the long term solution. That power is premium. Actual over the Wall power. 

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your hypothetical isn’t realistic because they aren’t moving Henderson to SS because of Holliday.

And show me anyone who is worried about his arm at SS?

While arm is ok for SS overall, he doesn't have that pure gun you'd prefer. So while I wouldn't say I'm concerned over his arm at SS, I also don't think it's an absolute written in stone situation that SS will be his long term position in the major leagues. That does not mean he won't end up a SS in Baltimore, but his arm is average at best right now at 19-yers old for a SS.

[Tony-OH]

Back to Frazier, I'm glad he pops a homer here and there, but over his last 15 games he's still slashing .184/.296/.342/.638 with sub par defense (lack of range has really become apparent). 

Nobody can convince me that Westburg, Ortiz or even Urias are not better choices as a starter at 2B over him. With his knack for hitting in the clutch, he's a great bench piece though.

[MurphDogg]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

While arm is ok for SS overall, he doesn't have that pure gun you'd prefer. So while I wouldn't say I'm concerned over his arm at SS, I also don't think it's an absolute written in stone situation that SS will be his long term position in the major leagues. That does not mean he won't end up a SS in Baltimore, but his arm is average at best right now at 19-yers old for a SS.

I hadn't heard his arm described as average at best before. Baseball America grades his arm as a 60, MLB Pipeline has it as a 55, and Jim Callis has said he has "probably a 60 arm". Would you have it as more of a 50/55 or a 50?

[banks703]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

While arm is ok for SS overall, he doesn't have that pure gun you'd prefer. So while I wouldn't say I'm concerned over his arm at SS, I also don't think it's an absolute written in stone situation that SS will be his long term position in the major leagues. That does not mean he won't end up a SS in Baltimore, but his arm is average at best right now at 19-yers old for a SS.

This is ultimately my feeling on Holliday. It's only a good thing for the Orioles if he can remain at SS but he is not a better defender than Ortiz, Gunnar or even JW at the position. Could that change? Certainly. He's 19 years old. But given that leadership has clearly demonstrated their preference for defense at the position by running Jorge out there for 1.5 years now while getting very little from him with the bat, leads me to think that they will play the better defender at the most premium infield position. 

[banks703]

11 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I hadn't heard his arm described as average at best before. Baseball America grades his arm as a 60, MLB Pipeline has it as a 55, and Jim Callis has said he has "probably a 60 arm". Would you have it as more of a 50/55 or a 50?

Pure arm strength to me looks 55 but that's when he rears back and comes out of his shoes to make a throw that is set up for him to let it rip. When he does that, his arm motion is long, more like what you would see from an outfielder. Game fielding, where he is fielding balls to his hand side, he has enough to make the throw but major league hitters will beat them. I don't see him throwing out any major league hitters if he has to backhand something in the hole unless it's a guy like Kirk from Toronto. He doesn't have the arm strength with the quick release that you see from guys like Jorge and Manny. 

 

He's not Ryan Mountcastle out there but he doesn't have the ideal arm strength of a plus defender at short. He has excellent hands though and his footwork is pretty advanced for being so young. This is why I think he ultimately ends up at 2B. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by banks703

[Just Regular]

The Boras stuff, I just kind of enjoy the theater he has Gunnar and Holliday.

Maybe Elias should just go before him as if he were King Solomon, and petition for wisdom who should be the shortstop.

I do believe Elias will try and leverage that angle, and SS reps might tilt towards anyone that sells him a couple few free agent years.    #CostCertainty        Boras on his side has the "snuff contract" special words for that kind of thing.

Certainly I am hoping the SS defense by Gunnar rates well for the position, and him being off the six a good amount of his minor league defensive innings was long term load management.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

I hadn't heard his arm described as average at best before. Baseball America grades his arm as a 60, MLB Pipeline has it as a 55, and Jim Callis has said he has "probably a 60 arm". Would you have it as more of a 50/55 or a 50?

I can just go by my observations. I'd give him a 50 SS arm with a chance for 55. Still probably plenty with his quickness and range. 

[SemperFi]

45 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Pure arm strength to me looks 55 but that's when he rears back and comes out of his shoes to make a throw that is set up for him to let it rip. When he does that, his arm motion is long, more like what you would see from an outfielder. Game fielding, where he is fielding balls to his hand side, he has enough to make the throw but major league hitters will beat them. I don't see him throwing out any major league hitters if he has to backhand something in the hole unless it's a guy like Kirk from Toronto. He doesn't have the arm strength with the quick release that you see from guys like Jorge and Manny. 

 

He's not Ryan Mountcastle out there but he doesn't have the ideal arm strength of a plus defender at short. He has excellent hands though and his footwork is pretty advanced for being so young. This is why I think he ultimately ends up at 2B. 

Sounds similar to JJ Hardy who came over the top with a long but very accurate throwing motion.  You've obviously seen him play more than I and I value your input as I can remember vividly remember watching RM's lack of arm at SS and then 3rd in Sarasota.  

We should all have long throwing motions if we had good coaching and followed what was taught!!

I think Elias spent a lot of time, effort and money scouting and then drafting him 1/1 to play SS and have a difficult time believing his arm is suddenly a big issue.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

Pure arm strength to me looks 55 but that's when he rears back and comes out of his shoes to make a throw that is set up for him to let it rip. When he does that, his arm motion is long, more like what you would see from an outfielder. Game fielding, where he is fielding balls to his hand side, he has enough to make the throw but major league hitters will beat them. I don't see him throwing out any major league hitters if he has to backhand something in the hole unless it's a guy like Kirk from Toronto. He doesn't have the arm strength with the quick release that you see from guys like Jorge and Manny. 

 

He's not Ryan Mountcastle out there but he doesn't have the ideal arm strength of a plus defender at short. He has excellent hands though and his footwork is pretty advanced for being so young. This is why I think he ultimately ends up at 2B. 

I'm not quite as down on you with the balls in the hole, but I need to see him make more of those plays before having a stronger position. Second base could be his position at some point, but I think they are going to make him play his way off that position. a lot will depend on the talent at hand on the roster as to where he plays. While Gunnar has the better arm, I still think he's going to outgrow SS and be better at 3B, but could be years away. 

I think a lot of people are down on Ortiz because his very SSS and usage at the major league level. Ortiz to me is the best defensive SS in the system and while he too doesn't have that pure Mateo arm strength, he's more consistent error wise and as much range or more than Mateo side to side.