2023 Defense Thread

[AnythingO's]

Re: Gunnar, IMO he should not be rotating around defensive positions. Pick one and leave him there to settle in. He is already having sophomore slump issues at the plate as the pitchers adjust to him based on last year. Take 1 thing off his plate and let him settle at 3B

[now]

1 hour ago, AnythingO's said:

Re: Gunnar, IMO he should not be rotating around defensive positions. Pick one and leave him there to settle in. He is already having sophomore slump issues at the plate as the pitchers adjust to him based on last year. Take 1 thing off his plate and let him settle at 3B

Palmer recently commented on the different "clock" between playing third and short; so it seems that is part of the problem. I guess we got spoiled seeing Machado make the same switch but at a Platinum level, and JJ Hardy so impeccable on fundamentals. 

[Frobby]

It’s in his head now.   He was fine all last year, shuttling between SS and 3B in both the majors and the minors.  

[Frobby]

Game 21, 2-1 win over Detroit

This game was pretty rich in notable defensive plays. 

- In the third inning, runners on 1st and second and one out, a ground ball was hit to Mountcastle. His throw to 2B was accurate but a little zipless, and Grayson was a bit slow to cover 1B.  Mateo put the ball in his pocket rather than attempting to throw to a still-moving Rodriguez.  Good decision by Mateo, but a DP might have been possible with a stronger feed throw and a quicker move to the bag by Rodriguez.  

- On the next play, runner on 3B and 2 out, Torkelson hit a line drive to RCF that McKenna got a good jump on and made a diving catch to end the inning.  xBA of .610 on the batted ball.

- In the 4th, Nevin led off the inning with a grounder down the line.  Henderson grabbed it behind the bag and made a one-hop throw that took an easy true hop and Mountcastle easily caught it.  I think this bounce was intentional.

- Next play, Henderson fielded a routine grounder to his glove side an let loose a bad throw that short hopped Mountcastle but he made a nice backhand stab and grabbed it for the out.  Much more difficult throw to handle than the first one and the bounce definitely wasn’t intentional.

- Leading off the 8th, Viering hit a line drive in front of McKenna, who attempted to make a diving catch.  He came up short but was able to snare the hop when the ball easily could have gotten by him.  

-Next play, Hasse hit a sharp grounder to Mateo’s backhand that ticked off his glove into LF.  It was scored a single, probably correctly, but it’s a play Mateo makes 4 times out of five IMO.

- After a sac bunt put runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out, Torkelson hit a fly ball to medium LF down the line.   McKenna caught it and made a strong one-hop throw, but Adley’s tag was just too late to beat the runner touching home on a bang-bang play.

- Leading off the 9th, Schoop hit a 107 mph grounder up the middle that Urias gloved, and made an accurate throw to 1st for the out.  xBA of .450 on the batted ball.

Leading off the 10th with the ghost runner on 2B, Vierlig hit a sharp grounder to Urias’ glove side that he was able to grab while sliding to his knees, and after doing a 360 on his knees he was able to throw from the ground for the out. xBA of .510 on the batted ball.

[Frobby]

Game 22, 5-4 win over the Red Sox

- In the third, one out and a runner on 2B, Verdugo hit a grounder in the 1B hole that got under Mountcastle’s glove for an RBI single.  It’s a play a good 1B should make.  Devers came up next and hit a two-run homer.  

- In the sixth, Justin Turner made the mistake of trying to go from 1st to 3rd on a single to Hays in LF.  The result:

- Later in the inning, with Akin in relief, Casas hit a backspinning squibber just beyond Akin’s reach   Frazier charged and made an awkward off balance throw for the out.

- In the 7th, Wong got a huge jump from 1B off Baker and appeared to have 2B stolen, but McCann made a lightning quick release from his knees, about a foot to the 1B side of 2B.  Frazier, channeling his inner JJ Hardy, let the ball travel until it was about an inch from Wong’s leg, gloved it and applied the tag a nanosecond before Wong’s hand reached the bag.  Perfectly executed by both McCann and Frazier.  Anything less and the runner would have been safe.  

[bericbnauff]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Frazier, channeling his inner JJ Hardy

@Frobby is my favorite sportswiter, these days.

[Frobby]

Game 29, 11-7 win over the Royals

- In the 4th, 3B Gunnar Henderson made a great diving stop of a sharp grounder in the hole, scrambled to his feet and threw a 92 mph screamer to Mountcasttle for the out 

- Also in the 4th, Mountcastle made a leaping catch of a screaming line drive for the third out   

- In the 5th, Mullins made a diving catch towards the wall in the RCF alley.  I believe they said he covered 108 feet on the play.  https://www.foxsports.com/watch/play-65e78fc64001544

- In the 7th, on a routine grounder to SS, Mateo threw too high and up the line but Mountcastle came off the bag and snagged it and tagged the runner.  

- In the 9th, Urias at 2B charged a very high Baltimore chop and tried to barehand it when it came down to make a throw, but lost control of the ball.  I don’t think a clean catch and throw would have gotten the runner anyway.

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Frobby

[Tony-OH]

So last night it was mentioned that the Orioles are the worse defensive team in the majors which is surprising to many of us in the game thread. I looked up the OAA and sure enough the Orioles are bad, with only the Rockies (-16) worse than the -13 Orioles.

So who are the offenders so far this season?

Well, pretty much everyone is worse this season then they were last year. Third base has been a disaster between Urias and Henderson as they've been a ridiculous -8 OAA between them. It's worth noting that Urias has been worth 1 OAA at 2B. Obviously Gunnar had a nice play last night, but with Mateo just killing it, it's probably time to keep Henderson focused at 3B accept when Mateo needs a day off.

Urias has been really solid at 2B and should start picking up playing time there. Frazier's lack of arm strength has really shown up on several plays including a few DPs that the runner was barely safe despite the quick turn by Frazier.

Santander has turned things around after a slow start in RF but Hays has been bad everywhere. He's been -2 OAA in LF with -4% success added and -1 OAA with -14% added in RF. 

I'll update these at the end of the month to see if they improve. I expect Gunnar to improve once he settles into 3B everyday.

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So last night it was mentioned that the Orioles are the worse defensive team in the majors which is surprising to many of us in the game thread. I looked up the OAA and sure enough the Orioles are bad, with only the Rockies (-16) worse than the -13 Orioles.

So who are the offenders so far this season?

Well, pretty much everyone is worse this season then they were last year. Third base has been a disaster between Urias and Henderson as they've been a ridiculous -8 OAA between them. It's worth noting that Urias has been worth 1 OAA at 2B. Obviously Gunnar had a nice play last night, but with Mateo just killing it, it's probably time to keep Henderson focused at 3B accept when Mateo needs a day off.

Urias has been really solid at 2B and should start picking up playing time there. Frazier's lack of arm strength has really shown up on several plays including a few DPs that the runner was barely safe despite the quick turn by Frazier.

Santander has turned things around after a slow start in RF but Hays has been bad everywhere. He's been -2 OAA in LF with -4% success added and -1 OAA with -14% added in RF. 

I'll update these at the end of the month to see if they improve. I expect Gunnar to improve once he settles into 3B everyday.

 

As I mentioned in the “Orioles by month” thread, some of the advanced defensive metrics really like the O’s, while some hate them.  To me, they’ve been much better during our recent winning stretch than they were in the early games. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I mentioned in the “Orioles by month” thread, some of the advanced defensive metrics really like the O’s, while some hate them.  To me, they’ve been much better during our recent winning stretch than they were in the early games. 

I agree that the defense has been better of late. I just wanted to get the numbers out there so we can update them throughout the year and see how they look.

[Frobby]

I really wish Baseball Savant published catch probability routinely.  I’d love to know the probability of Mullins’ catch last night.  

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I agree that the defense has been better of late. I just wanted to get the numbers out there so we can update them throughout the year and see how they look.

I agree it will be interesting to track them.  I included various defensive numbers for the team in the “by month” thread and for individual players in the “18 game segment” thread (but I didn’t include OAA in the latter, just Rdrs and UZR).   

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I really wish Baseball Savant published catch probability routinely.  I’d love to know the probability of Mullins’ catch last night.  

It was a 55% catch rate which is a 4 Star catch. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4f3180a3-1434-4aac-8620-20c7a3a9782c

Surprisingly, it was his second best catch of the season. This one in Chicago that he made look almost routine was only 50% catch rate.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2efce0cf-3c6e-42ce-bd80-bdf7ba76a08f

[RarityFlaherty]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It was a 55% catch rate which is a 4 Star catch. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4f3180a3-1434-4aac-8620-20c7a3a9782c

Surprisingly, it was his second best catch of the season. This one in Detroit that he made look almost routine was only 50% catch rate.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2efce0cf-3c6e-42ce-bd80-bdf7ba76a08f

Yeah it’s very surprising to me. By just looking at those two plays, I’m not sure how they got to those catch rates. It looks like he had to travel further for that catch last night and then had to lay out for it. 

[Aristotelian]

I thought Mullins' catch was excellent. I wonder if the xBA accounts for his positioning. He was shaded in and left which meant he had a ton of ground to cover. It was also harder for him as a lefty with the glove on his front side.