Anthony Santander 2023

[Jim'sKid26]

I am really pulling for Tony Taters to get to 30+ HR and 100+ RBIs. Those are numbers that push him into the category of power hitters who can bring back valuable pitching in a trade. I happen to disagree with @sportsfan8703. I think if he ends the season well and hits decently in the playoffs he's a very valuable trade chip. 

Would I be upset if they keep him next year? of course not. But I think his back is a ticking time bomb and there are young OF who can step in where he potentially left off.

[banks703]

Ant's ability to hit from both sides of the plate, to me, makes him more valuable than the numbers show. I have always wondered if guys who are not elite-elite switch-hitters (Chipper Jones, Eddie Murray, Mantle, Robby Alomar) focused on just one side, could they become elite hitters from just one side of the plate. We saw how much giving up hitting righty helped Ced. I wonder what that would do for Ant if he gave up hitting righty. I'm not suggesting that he should because he is a good hitter from both sides.. he's just not truly elite.

I see a little bit of Bobby Bo in his offensive game though I think Ant is the better pure power hitter where Bobby Bo was probably a better overall hitter and run producer.

Ant will probably end up with 35 doubles and close to 30 homers this year (he's on pace for 37 doubles and 30 homers). Add in the one triple and he's going to get close to 60 XBHs. Looking at the current lineup, there's only two other guys who will are likely to achieve 50 XBHs:

Hays is on pace for 40 doubles, 15 homers and 3 triples (58 XBH)

Gunnar is on pace for 25 doubles, 26 homers and 7 triples (58 XBH)

Mountcastle is on pace for 24 doubles, 22 homers and 1 triple (47 XBH)

Adley is on pace for 28 doubles, 20 homers and 1 triple (49 XBH)

O'Hearn and Ced haven't played enough but both would probably have gotten close this year. 

Total Bases for the year and pace shows another view of how Ant has separated himself from the rest of the guys: 

Ant (217 TB on pace for 276)

Hays (188 TB on pace for 239)

Gunnar (198 TB on pace for 252)

Mountcastle (169 TB on pace for 215)

Adley (202 TB on pace for 257)

Ant, Adley and Gunnar are all on pace to exceed 250 TB for the year, which makes sense given that they're the three best hitters in the lineup who hit in the 1-3 spots most often. Also, Ant leads the team in Plate Appearances yet he's only GIDP six times. 

With a strong finish from each of these top five guys, they could all be in the .790 - .810 OPS range, which is pretty damn good. Throw in ROH and his .829 OPS and Ced with his underperformed .776 OPS and their top 7ish guys from their lineup could OPS 50 points higher than the AL average of .729. 

All of this to reinforce that while the other guys (Gunnar, Adley, Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle and even ROH) have received national attention, Ant is quietly the team's best overall hitter. He's the type of guy who doesn't blow you away with numbers yet when he departs your team, you feel the impact of his loss far more than you expect. I'm not in any hurry to move on from Ant. In fact, I'd like to see the O's do what they can to retain him, even if that means giving him more time at First and DH. I'm not confident that there is another guy in the system who can be plugged into the lineup and match Ant's contributions. HK and CC are two guys that obviously come to mind but neither of can hit from the right side and neither have proven that they can hit ML pitching yet. 

[clapdiddy]

4 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Ant's ability to hit from both sides of the plate, to me, makes him more valuable than the numbers show. I have always wondered if guys who are not elite-elite switch-hitters (Chipper Jones, Eddie Murray, Mantle, Robby Alomar) focused on just one side, could they become elite hitters from just one side of the plate. We saw how much giving up hitting righty helped Ced. I wonder what that would do for Ant if he gave up hitting righty. I'm not suggesting that he should because he is a good hitter from both sides.. he's just not truly elite.

I see a little bit of Bobby Bo in his offensive game though I think Ant is the better pure power hitter where Bobby Bo was probably a better overall hitter and run producer.

Ant will probably end up with 35 doubles and close to 30 homers this year (he's on pace for 37 doubles and 30 homers). Add in the one triple and he's going to get close to 60 XBHs. Looking at the current lineup, there's only two other guys who will are likely to achieve 50 XBHs:

Hays is on pace for 40 doubles, 15 homers and 3 triples (58 XBH)

Gunnar is on pace for 25 doubles, 26 homers and 7 triples (58 XBH)

Mountcastle is on pace for 24 doubles, 22 homers and 1 triple (47 XBH)

Adley is on pace for 28 doubles, 20 homers and 1 triple (49 XBH)

O'Hearn and Ced haven't played enough but both would probably have gotten close this year. 

Total Bases for the year and pace shows another view of how Ant has separated himself from the rest of the guys: 

Ant (217 TB on pace for 276)

Hays (188 TB on pace for 239)

Gunnar (198 TB on pace for 252)

Mountcastle (169 TB on pace for 215)

Adley (202 TB on pace for 257)

Ant, Adley and Gunnar are all on pace to exceed 250 TB for the year, which makes sense given that they're the three best hitters in the lineup who hit in the 1-3 spots most often. Also, Ant leads the team in Plate Appearances yet he's only GIDP six times. 

With a strong finish from each of these top five guys, they could all be in the .790 - .810 OPS range, which is pretty damn good. Throw in ROH and his .829 OPS and Ced with his underperformed .776 OPS and their top 7ish guys from their lineup could OPS 50 points higher than the AL average of .729. 

All of this to reinforce that while the other guys (Gunnar, Adley, Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle and even ROH) have received national attention, Ant is quietly the team's best overall hitter. He's the type of guy who doesn't blow you away with numbers yet when he departs your team, you feel the impact of his loss far more than you expect. I'm not in any hurry to move on from Ant. In fact, I'd like to see the O's do what they can to retain him, even if that means giving him more time at First and DH. I'm not confident that there is another guy in the system who can be plugged into the lineup and match Ant's contributions. HK and CC are two guys that obviously come to mind but neither of can hit from the right side and neither have proven that they can hit ML pitching yet. 

Not sure if you were aware, but Santander's lifetime splits are a .780 OPS vs LHP and .760 vs RHP.   Not much of a difference.   Love the info you have in here, though!

EDIT:  Oops...I didn't read you line about "good hitting from each side".   My bad! 

Edited August 25, 2023 by clapdiddy

[Sydnor]

Anthony Santander is the first Orioles switch hitter with consecutive seasons of at least 25 home runs since Eddie Murray in 1987-88.

https://x.com/nathansruiz/status/1696348605940953512?s=46&t=xHfuzpktr9XCjYeDiRO6Ew

[Aristotelian]

On 8/25/2023 at 2:40 PM, Jim'sKid26 said:

I am really pulling for Tony Taters to get to 30+ HR and 100+ RBIs. Those are numbers that push him into the category of power hitters who can bring back valuable pitching in a trade. I happen to disagree with @sportsfan8703. I think if he ends the season well and hits decently in the playoffs he's a very valuable trade chip. 

Would I be upset if they keep him next year? of course not. But I think his back is a ticking time bomb and there are young OF who can step in where he potentially left off.

Whatever we get back in trade would have to be more valuable than a comp pick, otherwise keep him.

[Spy Fox]

34 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Whatever we get back in trade would have to be more valuable than a comp pick, otherwise keep him.

Santander would be an interesting qualifying offer case.

I don't think the 2025 O's would want to pay him $20M. But he might get the offer anyway if they know he wants to test FA. 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Whatever we get back in trade would have to be more valuable than a comp pick, otherwise keep him.

That wouldn’t be too difficult to beat.

[Aristotelian]

7 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

Santander would be an interesting qualifying offer case.

I don't think the 2025 O's would want to pay him $20M. But he might get the offer anyway if they know he wants to test FA. 

If he accepts them he could still be traded at that point. Someone would want a 30/100 guy for $20M and no long term commitment

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

If he accepts them he could still be traded at that point. Someone would want a 30/100 guy for $20M and no long term commitment

Don’t be so sure. We are talking 2 years from now. He’s not a high OBP guy, he’s not that valuable on the bases and he’s not that valuable in the field.

An 800ish OPS DH with a 320 OPS and no other redeeming qualities outside of power isn’t worth that much.

If they aren’t prepared to keep him at the QO number and/or if they aren’t ok with just letting him walk for nothing after next year, they should trade him offseason.

I think it’s pretty safe to say that Cowser starts the year on the team next year if he’s healthy. I think, if he’s still in the org, Ortiz starts the year on the team if healthy.

The big question marks heading into the season are Holliday, Kjerstad and Mayo. When do they want them up? If the answer is sooner than later, some of the vets have to go and Santander is likely #1 on that list.

The other question you ask is, so you bring back the platoon at first until you deem Mayo ready to go?

[Jim'sKid26]

10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Whatever we get back in trade would have to be more valuable than a comp pick, otherwise keep him.

I would not offer him a QO. He not that valuable. We need pitching more than what he brings to the club. Remember we are a "small market team..."

[emmett16]

Santander has the most nicknames of any Orioles I can remember.

Tony

Tony Taters

Santa

Santandinger

Ant

Am I missing any?  Cracks me up.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I would not offer him a QO. He not that valuable. We need pitching more than what he brings to the club. Remember we are a "small market team..."

If he took a QO, you could always trade him.  But I doubt he’d take it if he had another year like the last two.  

[Jim'sKid26]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If he took a QO, you could always trade him.  But I doubt he’d take it if he had another year like the last two.  

A bit of a gamble, IMHO. Not one I would make given the salary limitations imposed by John Angelos et al.

[Baltimorecuse]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Don’t be so sure. We are talking 2 years from now. He’s not a high OBP guy, he’s not that valuable on the bases and he’s not that valuable in the field.

An 800ish OPS DH with a 320 OPS and no other redeeming qualities outside of power isn’t worth that much.

If they aren’t prepared to keep him at the QO number and/or if they aren’t ok with just letting him walk for nothing after next year, they should trade him offseason.

I think it’s pretty safe to say that Cowser starts the year on the team next year if he’s healthy. I think, if he’s still in the org, Ortiz starts the year on the team if healthy.

The big question marks heading into the season are Holliday, Kjerstad and Mayo. When do they want them up? If the answer is sooner than later, some of the vets have to go and Santander is likely #1 on that list.

The other question you ask is, so you bring back the platoon at first until you deem Mayo ready to go?

Cowser is McKenna Jr.  He couldn't walk in Santander's shadow.  Has Cowser learned to catch the ball yet.  He's the hands down Hector Lopez Award winner.

[Pickles]

On 8/25/2023 at 2:42 PM, banks703 said:

Ant's ability to hit from both sides of the plate, to me, makes him more valuable than the numbers show. I have always wondered if guys who are not elite-elite switch-hitters (Chipper Jones, Eddie Murray, Mantle, Robby Alomar) focused on just one side, could they become elite hitters from just one side of the plate. We saw how much giving up hitting righty helped Ced. I wonder what that would do for Ant if he gave up hitting righty. I'm not suggesting that he should because he is a good hitter from both sides.. he's just not truly elite.

I see a little bit of Bobby Bo in his offensive game though I think Ant is the better pure power hitter where Bobby Bo was probably a better overall hitter and run producer.

Ant will probably end up with 35 doubles and close to 30 homers this year (he's on pace for 37 doubles and 30 homers). Add in the one triple and he's going to get close to 60 XBHs. Looking at the current lineup, there's only two other guys who will are likely to achieve 50 XBHs:

Hays is on pace for 40 doubles, 15 homers and 3 triples (58 XBH)

Gunnar is on pace for 25 doubles, 26 homers and 7 triples (58 XBH)

Mountcastle is on pace for 24 doubles, 22 homers and 1 triple (47 XBH)

Adley is on pace for 28 doubles, 20 homers and 1 triple (49 XBH)

O'Hearn and Ced haven't played enough but both would probably have gotten close this year. 

Total Bases for the year and pace shows another view of how Ant has separated himself from the rest of the guys: 

Ant (217 TB on pace for 276)

Hays (188 TB on pace for 239)

Gunnar (198 TB on pace for 252)

Mountcastle (169 TB on pace for 215)

Adley (202 TB on pace for 257)

Ant, Adley and Gunnar are all on pace to exceed 250 TB for the year, which makes sense given that they're the three best hitters in the lineup who hit in the 1-3 spots most often. Also, Ant leads the team in Plate Appearances yet he's only GIDP six times. 

With a strong finish from each of these top five guys, they could all be in the .790 - .810 OPS range, which is pretty damn good. Throw in ROH and his .829 OPS and Ced with his underperformed .776 OPS and their top 7ish guys from their lineup could OPS 50 points higher than the AL average of .729. 

All of this to reinforce that while the other guys (Gunnar, Adley, Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle and even ROH) have received national attention, Ant is quietly the team's best overall hitter. He's the type of guy who doesn't blow you away with numbers yet when he departs your team, you feel the impact of his loss far more than you expect. I'm not in any hurry to move on from Ant. In fact, I'd like to see the O's do what they can to retain him, even if that means giving him more time at First and DH. I'm not confident that there is another guy in the system who can be plugged into the lineup and match Ant's contributions. HK and CC are two guys that obviously come to mind but neither of can hit from the right side and neither have proven that they can hit ML pitching yet. 

That's a good comp actually.  Santander to Bobby Bo.  Bonilla was the better player, primarily because of his onbase skills, but they share many similarities.