The 2023 Orioles, 10 games at a time

[Frobby]

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

1-1 vs. MIN, 2-2 va. NYY, 3-0 vs. MIN, 1-0 vs. MIA.

Highest run total and fewest runs allowed of any of the 10-game segments above.  

[Three Run Homer]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

1-1 vs. MIN, 2-2 va. NYY, 3-0 vs. MIN, 1-0 vs. MIA.

Highest run total and fewest runs allowed of any of the 10-game segments above.  

And all ten games against teams in the post season hunt.  

[Frobby]

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

2-0 vs. MIA, 1-2 va. LAD, 3-1 @ TBR, 1-0 @ PHI

[Frobby]

 

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (54 RS, 34 RA)

0-2 @PHI, 2-1 vs. NYY, 3-1 @TOR, 1-0 vs. NYM

Funny how the game goes sometimes.  We were 7-3 the previous segment while being out scored by 2 runs, then 6-4 this segment while our scoring our opponents by 20.  Pythagoras must be rolling over in his grave!

[Moose Milligan]

Run differential took a big jump forward last night. 

[Baltimorecuse]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

 

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (54 RS, 34 RA)

0-2 @PHI, 2-1 vs. NYY, 3-1 @TOR, 1-0 vs. NYM

Funny how the game goes sometimes.  We were 7-3 the previous segment while being out scored by 2 runs, then 6-4 this segment while our scoring our opponents by 20.  Pythagoras must be rolling over in his grave!

That 1 run loss to the Phils was the changer.  Pythag is based on a stream of data into infinity, but the season is only 162 games.  So Pythag can only suggest a probability over a limited time span.  Given the limited time span, Pythag doesn't do badly.  

The Mets really stink.  Let's win the next two and move on.  

 

[Frobby]

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (54 RS, 34 RA)

6-4 (37 RS, 45 RA)

2-0 vs. NYM, 1-2 vs. HOU, 2-1 @ SEA, 1-1 @ SDP

The O's managed to win 6 of 10 despite their weakest 10-game hitting output of the year, thanks to a lot of well-pitched games.   Three of our losses were by 8-2, 9-2 and 10-3.  The pitchers allowed 3 runs or less in 5 of our 6 wins.

[Baltimorecuse]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (54 RS, 34 RA)

6-4 (37 RS, 45 RA)

2-0 vs. NYM, 1-2 vs. HOU, 2-1 @ SEA, 1-1 @ SDP

The O's managed to win 6 of 10 despite their weakest 10-game hitting output of the year, thanks to a lot of well-pitched games.   Three of our losses were by 8-2, 9-2 and 10-3.  The pitchers allowed 3 runs or less in 5 of our 6 wins.

In the standings, whether you win by 1 or 10 makes no difference.  How it effects statistical analysis is all the difference in the world.  That's why we are so wildly outperforming or stats.  

 

 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (54 RS, 34 RA)

6-4 (37 RS, 45 RA)

2-0 vs. NYM, 1-2 vs. HOU, 2-1 @ SEA, 1-1 @ SDP

The O's managed to win 6 of 10 despite their weakest 10-game hitting output of the year, thanks to a lot of well-pitched games.   Three of our losses were by 8-2, 9-2 and 10-3.  The pitchers allowed 3 runs or less in 5 of our 6 wins.

It’s really incredible that they have only had one 10 game stretch where they played under 500.

Even the 83 Os had, I believe, 2 7 game losing streaks.

Just remarkable consistency. No real long winning streaks either. Just consistently winning series.

The not getting swept thing really is a big deal. It’s kind of an afterthought but those who have mentioned it on here are correct..it shows that they can stop long losing streaks. That they never get out of hand. There is definitely value to that.

Look at how bad things have gone for Arizona, for example.

[Dale]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Fangraphs not sold on the Orioles but it does predict an exciting ending in the AL with the Rays, Orioles, Rangers, and Astros finishing with 93 or 94 wins.  

[Uli2001]

9 hours ago, Dale said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Fangraphs not sold on the Orioles but it does predict an exciting ending in the AL with the Rays, Orioles, Rangers, and Astros finishing with 93 or 94 wins.  

Fangraphs is predicting a losing record for the Orioles the rest of the way. The team with the best record in the league. I love how the "experts" keep underestimating the O's. I suspect the team uses it as motivation too.

[Hallas]

48 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Fangraphs is predicting a losing record for the Orioles the rest of the way. The team with the best record in the league. I love how the "experts" keep underestimating the O's. I suspect the team uses it as motivation too.

That's an improvement over before when they had us at like a .485 projected win percentage.

 

I think the explanation I heard about this was that their model (ZIPS) moves slowly because, even though they incorporate statcast data, historically players have reverted back to their projections more often than not.  That's not to say the Orioles will but I guess it's taking them longer than we'd like to move off it.

 

I tend to agree that the projections should be moving more rapidly in some cases, but I suppose it can be challenging to figure out when.

[Chavez Ravine]

[dystopia]

4 hours ago, Hallas said:

That's an improvement over before when they had us at like a .485 projected win percentage.

 

I think the explanation I heard about this was that their model (ZIPS) moves slowly because, even though they incorporate statcast data, historically players have reverted back to their projections more often than not.  That's not to say the Orioles will but I guess it's taking them longer than we'd like to move off it.

 

I tend to agree that the projections should be moving more rapidly in some cases, but I suppose it can be challenging to figure out when.

ZiPS has literally never been accurate predicting team’s record. Never. It’s a waste of bandwidth. 

[Hallas]

8 hours ago, dystopia said:

ZiPS has literally never been accurate predicting team’s record. Never. It’s a waste of bandwidth. 

Has there been anything that's accurate in predicting a team's record?