Gunnar Henderson 2023

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Gunnar only has 8 more plate appearances than Urias, so Urias is already in the lineup on a semi-regular basis.  Urias isn't replacing Gunnar's OBP if he's already in the lineup practically as often as Gunnar is.  

I know you aren't this illogical. If both players are in the lineup on a semi-regular basis, and you remove one, the other goes into the lineup on a regular basis. How often are they in the lineup together?

If you want Gunnar's walks replaced, just give his replacement the take sign on every pitch.

[celery]

Sending Gunnar down probably means more playing time for Frazier, I'd guess. Is that a trade we want to make? Do people prefer Ortiz over Gunnar? I just don't understand. For the record, I would be very happy with a Frazier DFA a strict Gunnar-Ortiz/Westburg platoon but that's not going to happen.

[DirtyBird]

Let's just ignore all poor batting statistics, like massive strikeouts and low OPS, if a guy can rack up some walks in low leverage situations.

Our negative WAR phenom is irreplaceable!

OPS (OBP)

RISP - .515 (.304)
Men On Base - .469 (.308)
2 Out RISP - .384 (.273)
Late & Close - .118 (.118)
High Leverage - .071 (.071)

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I know you aren't this illogical. If both players are in the lineup on a semi-regular basis, and you remove one, the other goes into the lineup on a regular basis. How often are they in the lineup together?

If you want Gunnar's walks replaced, just give his replacement the take sign on every pitch.

This is funny, you're saying I'm illogical and then you're telling me that if you want Gunnar's walks replaced to give his replacement the take sign.  I know you're being sarcastic but you still haven't offered a good solution.

By my count, Gunnar and Urias have been starters in the same lineup in 16 of the 29 games played. There have been 3 additional games where Urias was inserted into the lineup later in the game (and not replacing Gunnar, IIRC). So that's 16 games they've been in the starting lineup together, 19 where they've been in the same lineup. 

That's not taking into account the few games that Urias missed with his concussion.  If not for injury, they could have been in the lineup as starters more often.

Seeing as how they've been in the lineup often enough together, replacing Urias for Henderson still isn't a 1:1 replacement of OBP.  

So, try again.  

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Let's just ignore all poor batting statistics, like massive strikeouts and low OPS, if a guy can rack up some walks in low leverage situations.

Our negative WAR phenom is irreplaceable!

OPS (OBP)

RISP - .515 (.304)
Men On Base - .469 (.308)
2 Out RISP - .384 (.273)
Late & Close - .118 (.118)
High Leverage - .071 (.071)

Negative WAR due to the defense.  I don't think bringing up negative WAR is the flex you think it is when looking at offense only.

[Sanity Check]

12 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Let's just ignore all poor batting statistics, like massive strikeouts and low OPS, if a guy can rack up some walks in low leverage situations.

Our negative WAR phenom is irreplaceable!

OPS (OBP)

RISP - .515 (.304)
Men On Base - .469 (.308)
2 Out RISP - .384 (.273)
Late & Close - .118 (.118)
High Leverage - .071 (.071)

Can you just say that you hate seeing Gunnar on the team and on the lineup and move on?  We get it.  Even though you could be right, most don't agree with how you'd handle it.  But, it is what it is.  

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Can you just say that you hate seeing Gunnar on the team and on the lineup and move on?  We get it.  Even though you could be right, most don't agree with how you'd handle it.  But, it is what it is.  

OK, Gunnar should not be on the team right now. He is not performing well, his approach at the plate currently stinks. He draws walks, but also strikes out at about a 35% rate, which are completely unproductive outs. He is the worst in the biggest situations of the game. His defense has been shaky. And, after his hot start last season, he was very bad at the plate down the stretch.

The same people who don't think Gunnar should go down to get regular AB's to reevaluate himself are the same ones that complain about our prospects wasting time in AAA now.

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Who's going to replace a .361 OBP?  Don't say Westburg or Ortiz, they're not proven.

I think you’re taking the OBP thing a little too far.  We have stats like wOBA that properly weight OBP with power and getting hits (because singles are more productive than walks).  Gunnar is at .316, just a tad below league average of .319.   There are 7 guys ahead of him on the O’s, and the team average right now is a robust .338.  So, it would not create a hole in our lineup if we sent him down.

For me, the bigger thing is that at .316 he’s not hurting the team significantly, and he’s learning.  I feel very confident that he’ll make adjustments, get his timing down, and start raking if we just stay the course.  I’d rather have a disciplined hitter like Gunnar learn when to be more aggressive than try to teach an overly aggressive hitter to be more disciplined.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

 

The same people who don't think Gunnar should go down to get regular AB's to reevaluate himself are the same ones that complain about our prospects wasting time in AAA now.

Right, because as many of the young players as we can get up should be up and learning at the ML level.

[InsideCoroner]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

OK, Gunnar should not be on the team right now. He is not performing well, his approach at the plate currently stinks. He draws walks, but also strikes out at about a 35% rate, which are completely unproductive outs. He is the worst in the biggest situations of the game. His defense has been shaky. And, after his hot start last season, he was very bad at the plate down the stretch.

The same people who don't think Gunnar should go down to get regular AB's to reevaluate himself are the same ones that complain about our prospects wasting time in AAA now.

His OPS+ is 89, which is higher than Frazier or Santander (and crazy stat of the year, he's scored more runs than Mullins or Rutschman). If you believe that the only way to learn to hit major league pitching is by facing major league pitching, let him hit. The bats are hot enough right now to carry two or three cold(er) bats. In recent years they often seemed to be carrying five or six slumping hitters at once, so I don't see the pressing need so long as they're scoring runs and winning games.  

[Bemorewins]

39 minutes ago, celery said:

Sending Gunnar down probably means more playing time for Frazier, I'd guess. Is that a trade we want to make? Do people prefer Ortiz over Gunnar? I just don't understand. For the record, I would be very happy with a Frazier DFA a strict Gunnar-Ortiz/Westburg platoon but that's not going to happen.

I definitely don’t want Gunnar sent down or to the bench. Young players struggle, end of story. Look at Adley, JRod, BWitt Jr, etc. 

But even worse would be taking out too prospects and platooning them out of the gate. They are loosing tremendous value doing that. Platoons are for lesser talent players in order to get the most value out of them, you don’t take the extremely talented and make them platoon players. They are not going to get the experience and consistency needed doing that. You would be better served leaving them down or trading them, then to do that.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, celery said:

I wouldn't, personally. But he started against a lefty last night. 

Part of the problem is if he sits, then Frazier plays 2B since Urias moves to 3B. Now Frazier has been better than Henderson against lefties (.656 OPS), he's historically weak against them.

At some point Henderson needs to be able to hit major league lefties to be an everyday player so it seems like they prefer to have him get that experience while the team is doing well. I can't really argue with that despite his struggles. It's worth noting Henderson had struggled most of his minor league career against lefties so this is not a surprise.

The hope is he'll be able to develop that skill because if not, that takes away from his overall value. 

[Bemorewins]

Another thing to add, you send guys down when they look overmatched. Does Gunnar look overmatched to anyone? Or does he look like a guy who needs to make adjustments and attack pitches in the zone?

The young man is an Uber talent and will hit in time. The good thing is that we can afford to be patient with how well the team is performing.

[Aristotelian]

29 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I definitely don’t want Gunnar sent down or to the bench. Young players struggle, end of story. Look at Adley, JRod, BWitt Jr, etc. 

But even worse would be taking out too prospects and platooning them out of the gate. They are loosing tremendous value doing that. Platoons are for lesser talent players in order to get the most value out of them, you don’t take the extremely talented and make them platoon players. They are not going to get the experience and consistency needed doing that. You would be better served leaving them down or trading them, then to do that.

I agree we shouldn't be hasty about it, but we may need to at some point and it could be good for him. Kelenic would be a comp. He got 300 AB's his rookie year and another 160 last year. Now he is back with a Mateo-esque .988 OPS. 

[Moose Milligan]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you’re taking the OBP thing a little too far.  We have stats like wOBA that properly weight OBP with power and getting hits (because singles are more productive than walks).  Gunnar is at .316, just a tad below league average of .319.   There are 7 guys ahead of him on the O’s, and the team average right now is a robust .338.  So, it would not create a hole in our lineup if we sent him down.

For me, the bigger thing is that at .316 he’s not hurting the team significantly, and he’s learning.  I feel very confident that he’ll make adjustments, get his timing down, and start raking if we just stay the course.  I’d rather have a disciplined hitter like Gunnar learn when to be more aggressive than try to teach an overly aggressive hitter to be more disciplined.  

Yeah, I'm taking it too far because it's the only real value he's bringing to the team right now.  

I just don't think he should be sent down at the end of the day.  Had he not been at the .361 OBP and more around the .300 mark, I'd be more inclined to agree that he needs to be sent down.