Probable rain out today in Detroit (Update: Game is postponed)

[Going Underground]

Is that after they ate the food?

 

[Going Underground]

Nationals game just got cancelled. Tigers start earlier. Maybe will wait awhile to see what hapoens.

[deward]

37 minutes ago, owknows said:

I see no reason at this time to believe that Mateo's performance will not be superior to Adley's at the end of the year.

I see that there is an expectation on many people's part that Adley's performance will be superior..  but that is kind of my point.

 

It's perfectly reasonable to set expectations based on previous performance and observations. Mateo is nearly 28 years old and had nearly 800 PA coming into this season, over which he was not a particularly good hitter, outside of a hot streak last summer than lasted a few weeks. Perhaps he will be a rare example of a player in his late 20s who makes drastic improvements that stick, but that would be a pretty shocking development. Resetting your expectations that dramatically based on a one-month heater (largely against some of the worst teams in the league) seems like letting optimism run ahead of common sense.

[deward]

 

[Moose Milligan]

Bummer.

[Going Underground]

No baseball on MASN tonight but two split DH's tomorrow. MASN1 and 2 programming tonight will be amazing  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

No baseball on MASN tonight but two split DH's tomorrow. MASN1 and 2 programming tonight will be amazing  

 

 

[owknows]

10 minutes ago, deward said:

It's perfectly reasonable to set expectations based on previous performance and observations. Mateo is nearly 28 years old and had nearly 800 PA coming into this season, over which he was not a particularly good hitter, outside of a hot streak last summer than lasted a few weeks. Perhaps he will be a rare example of a player in his late 20s who makes drastic improvements that stick, but that would be a pretty shocking development. Resetting your expectations that dramatically based on a one-month heater (largely against some of the worst teams in the league) seems like letting optimism run ahead of common sense.

Given what Mateo did last Jul and Aug, coupled with all of April this year, I think its a little disingenuous to call that a "heater".

He's currently batting .361 with a 1.045 OPS... For the season.

I don't think it's at all unrealistic to say that something has changed.

By your own admission.. he's had 800 PA coming into the season. That's barely over a season of MLB AB's

Not a lot to go on... but I'm liking the trend, and see no reason to think it isn't real.

 

 

[rm5678]

25 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

No baseball on MASN tonight but two split DH's tomorrow. MASN1 and 2 programming tonight will be amazing  

Do the teams get to call up a 27th player for a split DH?

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, owknows said:

Given what Mateo did last Jul and Aug, coupled with all of April this year, I think its a little disingenuous to call that a "heater".

He's currently batting .361 with a 1.045 OPS... For the season.

I don't think it's at all unrealistic to say that something has changed.

By your own admission.. he's had 800 PA coming into the season. That's barely over a season of MLB AB's

Not a lot to go on... but I'm liking the trend, and see no reason to think it isn't real.

I like your optimism, and I hope you are right.  Mateo has proved he can hit quite well when he’s hot.  He proved it last July/August, and he’s proved it this April.  But what he has to do is prove he can sustain it and not go ice cold.  You omitted the fact that Mateo, after his July/August hot stretch, finished the season with a .483 OPS over his final 36 games.   And, immediately before his hot streak, he had a cold streak of 32 games at .435 OPS.   Those two streaks weren’t just cold, they were pathetic.  And that’s why he had a .646 OPS for the season.  

Adley, on the other hand, has been a metronome.   After a .535 OPS in 10 games in May last year, he hasn’t had a month under .775.

So for me, Adley has proved he’s consistently excellent.  Mateo has proved that he’s very good when he’s hot.  He certainly hasn’t proven he can avoid prolonged slumps where he goes colder than a frozen tundra.  So, my bet is on Adley.  But to be clear, I think Mateo does have a chance of avoiding cold spells that are as prolonged and as bad as the ones he had last year.  But he’s going to have to prove it.  

 

[Frobby]

For anyone hoping to distract themselves with minor league baseball tonight, the Bowie, Aberdeen and Delmarva games are already canceled.   However, the Norfolk Tides have a doubleheader at Charlotte beginning at 5:35, with Rom and Hall scheduled as the starters, with no rain in the forecast in Charlotte.  Go Tides!

[AnythingO's]

39 minutes ago, deward said:

It's perfectly reasonable to set expectations based on previous performance and observations. Mateo is nearly 28 years old and had nearly 800 PA coming into this season, over which he was not a particularly good hitter, outside of a hot streak last summer than lasted a few weeks. Perhaps he will be a rare example of a player in his late 20s who makes drastic improvements that stick, but that would be a pretty shocking development. Resetting your expectations that dramatically based on a one-month heater (largely against some of the worst teams in the league) seems like letting optimism run ahead of common sense.

OK, you and owknows are turning this rain out into a Mateo thread so as one of the few that picked him for the breakout season I need to weigh in. His heater last summer was 6-8 weeks long depending on your choice of metrics. It came after concentrated work with the hitting coaches to refine his approach. Then late in the season they noticed something else to work on (toe tap vs leg lift) and he spent the offseason working on that and it's working. As a prospect he was #1 in NYY system ahead of Judge, traded to Oakland for a pitcher (Sonny Gray??). He had been top 100 for 3 straight years over 3 different lists (9 times total). Oakland moved him up a level and it didn't work. The sent him to SDP where he was behind Tatis-Machado and got 26 ABs in 2020. They cut him and we get him in August 2021. He is a highly talented and toolsy player whose development was hindered by trades and COVID. He has 775 ABs to date, 61 this season. Conventional thinking was it took 1,200 to 1,500 ABs to learn how to hit at MLB level. He has made himself into the player we see now.  Will he cool off, of course. Will he revert to old form, at age 27 (B-day 6/23) with probably the best opportunity of his career, I highly doubt that. He has shown the willingness to change and reinvent himself.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I'll put it this way:

If this organization can take a guy like Mateo and transform him into what he's doing now, then we are in for a long, magnificent ride. 

Maybe they can! We'll find out.

Watching the 2-week heater extend to 4-weeks, and also in the category of Too Good to be True, what if its Jorge Mateo who is the Player Development story of the year following Gunnar Henderson.      Mateo has a lot of pro experience, but maybe Orioles PD needs 2 offseasons to really rewrite the code.

As a toolshed, Mateo's tough to beat.

Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik's The MVP Machine is kind of a grail quest story with the familiar Justin Turnery anecdotes.     Certainly all of the Orgs are trying for the best mousetrap.    Blue chips like Adley and Holliday are what they are, but if you're killing it in the Gunnar/Mateo range....     1 is a fluke, 2 is a trend, which I guess could apply to Felix-Yennier some as well.

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For anyone hoping to distract themselves with minor league baseball tonight, the Bowie, Aberdeen and Delmarva games are already canceled.   However, the Norfolk Tides have a doubleheader at Charlotte beginning at 5:35, with Rom and Hall scheduled as the starters, with no rain in the forecast in Charlotte.  Go Tides!

Going to be a Tides baseball night tonight!

[deward]

13 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

OK, you and owknows are turning this rain out into a Mateo thread so as one of the few that picked him for the breakout season I need to weigh in. His heater last summer was 6-8 weeks long depending on your choice of metrics. It came after concentrated work with the hitting coaches to refine his approach. Then late in the season they noticed something else to work on (toe tap vs leg lift) and he spent the offseason working on that and it's working. As a prospect he was #1 in NYY system ahead of Judge, traded to Oakland for a pitcher (Sonny Gray??). He had been top 100 for 3 straight years over 3 different lists (9 times total). Oakland moved him up a level and it didn't work. The sent him to SDP where he was behind Tatis-Machado and got 26 ABs in 2020. They cut him and we get him in August 2021. He is a highly talented and toolsy player whose development was hindered by trades and COVID. He has 775 ABs to date, 61 this season. Conventional thinking was it took 1,200 to 1,500 ABs to learn how to hit at MLB level. He has made himself into the player we see now.  Will he cool off, of course. Will he revert to old form, at age 27 (B-day 6/23) with probably the best opportunity of his career, I highly doubt that. He has shown the willingness to change and reinvent himself.

I can only point you to Frobby's response to owknows, as he said everything I would say, except better. All that work didn't stop Mateo from falling back into his bad habits and being an automatic out over the last month of 2022. Is this start encouraging? Yes, of course. It'd be fantastic for the team if it turns out to be real, sustainable improvement. His struggles to end last year give me reason to rein in my excitement until he proves he can keep this up.