Let’s assume Mateo is an .800+ OPS, 5+ WAR shortstop — now what?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Who does have Mateo's range at short?

In my estimation it is all about aggregate value and wins. If Elias trades Mateo, you're giving up a player offering significant production. But can you exceed the overall value/wins by inserting Ortiz and acquiring players (especially pitching)?

Exactly.   Let’s say you have a 5 WAR SS, a bunch of 2 WAR pitchers, and a backup SS who you think could give you 3.5 WAR if he had the opportunity.  You have a chance to trade your 5 WAR SS for a 4.5 WAR pitcher.   In that case, you’re losing 1.5 WAR at SS but gaining 2.5 WAR at pitcher, even though the pitcher you’re getting is slightly less valuable than the SS you’re trading.  So, you do that trade unless you think you can do better, or if you aren’t confident in your assessment of your backup SS.

[Jagwar]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Exactly.   Let’s say you have a 5 WAR SS, a bunch of 2 WAR pitchers, and a backup SS who you think could give you 3.5 WAR if he had the opportunity.  You have a chance to trade your 5 WAR SS for a 4.5 WAR pitcher.   In that case, you’re losing 1.5 WAR at SS but gaining 2.5 WAR at pitcher, even though the pitcher you’re getting is slightly less valuable than the SS you’re trading.  So, you do that trade unless you think you can do better, or if you aren’t confident in your assessment of your backup SS.

In terms of overall impact I feel the same way about McKenna and his value in covering all 3 outfield positions. If you replace McKenna with someone like Cowser, you may give up defensive flexibility but you could gain more aggregate value if Cowser actually produces. 

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I could be wrong but I think many in this thread are overestimating the type of return Mateo might deliver in a trade, because I'm not sure about how other GM's would value his body of work. Yes, a gold glove, 800 OPS, 5 WAR lightning bolt is highly coveted. But Mateo has yet to show that he is that player for the long run. 

I personally would try to trade him at the deadline if Ortiz shows that he can hit ML pitching, but I wouldn't be shocked if the return is underwhelming. (Unless there is a GM out there who overpays)   

If Mateo goes on to have a huge season this year, after a season with a 3.5ish WAR, he will have plenty of value. 

[Jagwar]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If Mateo goes on to have a huge season this year, after a season with a 3.5ish WAR, he will have plenty of value. 

I agree, but I think some are overestimating what that value will actually be. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Jagwar said:

I agree, but I think some are overestimating what that value will actually be. 

It should be pretty high..GG level SS with his speed and figuring it out at the plate? Lots of service time left.

Those guys don’t grow on trees.

[Jagwar]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It should be pretty high..GG level SS with his speed and figuring it out at the plate? Lots of service time left.

Those guys don’t grow on trees.

No they don't, but GMs are going to have to be confident that Mateo version they are getting is the GG level SS and not the .600 OPS version

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

No they don't, but GMs are going to have to be confident that Mateo version they are getting is the GG level SS and not the .600 OPS version

Even if they think he’s only a 720 OPs guy with a GG, that’s still a lot.  Basically the same as Mullins.

[Aristotelian]

46 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I agree, but I think some are overestimating what that value will actually be. 

If Mateo goes on to have a 5+ WAR season, would Javy Baez be a fair comp? Or would he have to repeat that production next year? Javy has more power but Mateo better speed. Both known for defense. Peak Baez has produced in the 6 WAR range. He got back Pete Crow Armstrong in a rental who is currently MLB #25 off to a good start in AA. What a steal for the Cubs. If we could get close to that for Mateo, trading is a no brainer.

[Billy F-Face3]

Playing Out Of The Park 24 up to May 12th, the Braves are willing to trade Max Fried straight up to the Orioles for Jorge Mateo. The Orioles are in 1st place and the Braves are a close 2nd in their division. But the Braves are deep at pitching and thin at SS. The Orioles are deep at SS and thin at pitching.

I know that's just a simulation and not really indicative of real life, but they got the scouting report on DL Hall perfectly accurate, among many others I looked at, and most of the records in the simulation to that point have been mirroring/predicting real life's standings.

And for anyone who's wondering, I'm sticking with Mateo for a little while longer while I still can. At least up to the trade deadline.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Exactly.   Let’s say you have a 5 WAR SS, a bunch of 2 WAR pitchers, and a backup SS who you think could give you 3.5 WAR if he had the opportunity.  You have a chance to trade your 5 WAR SS for a 4.5 WAR pitcher.   In that case, you’re losing 1.5 WAR at SS but gaining 2.5 WAR at pitcher, even though the pitcher you’re getting is slightly less valuable than the SS you’re trading.  So, you do that trade unless you think you can do better, or if you aren’t confident in your assessment of your backup SS.

I think you are short changing the O's starters.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Playing Out Of The Park 24 up to May 12th, the Braves are willing to trade Max Fried straight up to the Orioles for Jorge Mateo. The Orioles are in 1st place and the Braves are a close 2nd in their division. But the Braves are deep at pitching and thin at SS. The Orioles are deep at SS and thin at pitching.

I know that's just a simulation and not really indicative of real life, but they got the scouting report on DL Hall perfectly accurate, among many others I looked at, and most of the records in the simulation to that point have been mirroring/predicting real life's standings.

And for anyone who's wondering, I'm sticking with Mateo for a little while longer while I still can. At least up to the trade deadline.

If that trade could happen, you do it yesterday.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

If that trade could happen, you do it yesterday.

That's a trade that only happens in a video game.

Might as well just say "I had a dream last night in which the Braves...."

Also the Braves are 18-9, I don't think they are at a point of desperation.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think you are short changing the O's starters.

I was giving a hypothetical illustration, not talking specifically about the O’s.  But do you think the O’s will have five starters who all exceed 2 WAR?  Last year, only Kremer did per rWAR, and nobody did per fWAR.   So far this year, only Wells and Gibson are on pace for 2+ WAR (Grayson is close per fWAR, but not per rWAR).   Sure there is reason to hope the starting pitching will improve as the year goes along, but it’s very unrealistic to think that a 4.5 rWAR pitcher wouldn’t significantly improve our rotation. 

[RarityFlaherty]

9 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Playing Out Of The Park 24 up to May 12th, the Braves are willing to trade Max Fried straight up to the Orioles for Jorge Mateo. The Orioles are in 1st place and the Braves are a close 2nd in their division. But the Braves are deep at pitching and thin at SS. The Orioles are deep at SS and thin at pitching.

I know that's just a simulation and not really indicative of real life, but they got the scouting report on DL Hall perfectly accurate, among many others I looked at, and most of the records in the simulation to that point have been mirroring/predicting real life's standings.

And for anyone who's wondering, I'm sticking with Mateo for a little while longer while I still can. At least up to the trade deadline.

I doubt the Braves would trade away their top starter in the middle of the season, unless they fell out of contention. Maybe they do that trade in the off-season, but it doesn’t really make sense during the season when they are trying to compete. I find that the trade logic in MLB The Show is similarly flawed. In an attempt to make it a little more realistic, I usually force myself to only trade with teams that are out of contention at the trade deadline. 

[maybenxtyr]

As many others have already said, you really don't have to do anything until the season is over. If he continues to be close to what he is right now I think a GM would have to explore trading him for pitching. It would hurt, but the pitching needs to be upgraded somehow.