O's offense and the first inning: Do you two know each other?

[Moshagge3]

So, we've all heard our chipper MASN broadcasters put a cheerful spin on it: the Orioles just love to wait to make their move in the late innings. But I hadn't realized just how bad the offense has been in the first inning. It's supposed to be easiest to score in the first inning; it's the only inning you're guaranteed to send up your 1-3 hitters! Yet the Orioles have scored all of 12 runs in the first inning with an incredible .533 OPS. I didn't check every team to see if that's worst in the majors, but here's what some offensively challenged teams are doing in the first:

DET: 20 runs, .731 OPS

KC: 24 runs, .700 OPS

OAK: 20 runs, .668 OPS

WAS: 26 runs, .779 OPS

Yes, the Orioles are getting two-thirds less production in the first inning than a team whose wins you can count on your fingers. And to compare the O's production to an actual elite team, the Braves have scored 33 runs in the first inning with a .935 OPS. The O's struggles are truly astonishing. At first I thought it must have something to do with Santander's terrible April, but the real culprit seems to be Cedric Mullins, who is slashing .207/.258/.207 in the first inning. This is after he slashed .223/.284/.369 in the first inning last year. My theory is that after Cedric's breakout year in 2021, teams learned not to challenge him and he's consistently seeing more of a careful pitch mix in the first inning. Unfortunately he's not taking advantage. Just two of his 22 walks have come leading off the game. The man can be selective, it's just not happening in the first. It's been a whole lot of 1 out, none on for Adley Rutschman's at bats.

As the O's put up another goose egg in the first today and play from behind (hey, maybe it'll work out again today), I can't help but think this is a liability going forward.

[vab]

When they start counting 1st inning runs more than runs in the other 8 innings this will be a problem. Until then, don't worry about it. 

[Frobby]

You can pull up the first inning splits for all teams here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2023  (scroll to “show by inning”)

The O’s are 29th/30 in runs and in OPS in the first inning.  Only the Mets are worse.

I agree that’s pretty peculiar.  Mullins has a .465 OPS in the first inning, Santander .429, Mountcastle .387.  Rutschman (.810) and Hays (.867) have been fine.  Those 5 guys have 90% of our first inning at bats (149/165).   

Edited May 18, 2023 by Frobby

[Mr-splash]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

You can pull up the first inning splits for all teams here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2023

The O’s are 29th/30 in runs and in OPS in the first inning.  Only the Mets are worse.

I agree that’s pretty peculiar.  Mullins has a .465 OPS in the first inning, Santander .429, Mountcastle .387.  Rutschman (.810) and Hays (.867) have been fine.  Those 5 guys have 90% of our first inning at bats (149/165).   

 

Interesting numbers. Major League Baseball is hard. The only truly reliable hitters in the lineup are Adley and I'm surprised to say, Austin Hays. Mullins and Santander are good hitters, but cannot be relied upon to give consistent ABs day in and day out. They go through weird non competitive funks from time to time. Even when Hays and Adley are making a lot of outs their ABs always look competitive. 

[Frobby]

By the way, Mullins has a career .798 OPS in the first inning, Mountcastle .790, Santander .735.  So, I think you can chalk up their poor 1st inning numbers so far this year as one of those fluky things that can happen in a small sample.  

[Moshagge3]

50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By the way, Mullins has a career .798 OPS in the first inning, Mountcastle .790, Santander .735.  So, I think you can chalk up their poor 1st inning numbers so far this year as one of those fluky things that can happen in a small sample.  

A small sample for 2023, yes. But as I said, Mullins was also not good in the first inning last year. That career .798 first inning OPS is thanks to his monster 2021, the first year he was consistently leading off, when he was a force in the first inning to the tune of a 1.014 OPS. This is why I suspect teams changed their approach after he established himself as a star. He's not being challenged in the zone the way he was in 2021.

It will never happen, but it would be interesting to see what would happen if Adley and Cedric switched spots for a while. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Moshagge3 said:

A small sample for 2023, yes. But as I said, Mullins was also not good in the first inning last year. That career .798 first inning OPS is thanks to his monster 2021, the first year he was consistently leading off, when he was a force in the first inning to the tune of a 1.014 OPS. This is why I suspect teams changed their approach after he established himself as a star. He's not being challenged in the zone the way he was in 2021.

I don’t think this is logical.  Opponents don’t have some special way of pitching Mullins that only applies the first time he’s up. Last year’s .653 was a reasonable deviation from his overall .721.   This year’s .465 is a small sample fluke over 31 plate appearances.  

[Frobby]

This hasn’t been getting much better lately.  The O’s have scored 19 runs in the first inning, or .31 per game.  The next lowest team is at 27.  Over 9 innings, the O’s .31 per game in the first that would be a 2.8 runs/game pace.  They have scored in the first inning in only 12 games out of 62.  

The pitchers have allowed 32 runs in the first inning, or .52 runs per game.  That’s not terrible, but it means we are behind after 1 inning quite often.  They have been behind after the first inning in 19 of 32 games, and ahead only 10 times.  
 

[ShoelesJoe]

Orioles currently batting .178 / .254 / .296 in the first inning. MLB average is .258 / .329 / .428. 

Wow. Just...Wow. 

Given that this is the only inning where a team gets to choose who bats, and in what order, this is a terrible indictment of Hyde's lineup construction. In order to win a game we are having to score more runs in eight innings than our opponents do in nine. 

Edited June 9, 2023 by ShoelesJoe

[glenn__davis]

3 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Orioles currently batting .178 / .254 / .296 in the first inning. MLB average is .258 / .329 / .428. 

Wow. Just...Wow. 

Given that this is the only inning where a team gets to choose who bats, and in what order, this is a terrible indictment of Hyde's lineup construction. In order to win a game we are having to score more runs in eight innings than our opponents do in nine. 

Most of the year the top 2 have been Mullins and Rutschman, 2 of our better hitters.  I don't think this has much to do with lineup construction.  I just think for whatever reason (likely SSS fluctuation) we just haven't hit well in the 1st inning.

Now Frazier batting leadoff since Mullins went out, that's a different story.

[ShoelesJoe]

First inning offense:

 

Rays -- .301 / .373 / .511

Blue Jays -- .287 / .349 / .437

Yankees -- .236 / .318 / .413

Red Sox -- .227 / .313 / .427

A's -- .227 / .309 / .370

Royals -- .250 / .304 / .445

Orioles -- .178 / .254 / .296

 

[Too Tall]

 It's like we don't get ready (offensively) for the game until a trip or two through the line up. This is an interesting discussion. Not sure what it means in the scope of things, but interesting none the less. I can't help but feel this is not a recipe for prolonged success. 

[AlbNYfan]

What about early innings pitching melt downs? Long 30 pitch innings (sometimes after breezing through the first one or two). Pitch count up and have trouble getting through more than 5. Many 0-2, 1-2 counts leading to walks or hits. They don't seem to have the pitch that leads to soft contact and get them out of trouble. It gets tiring watching waste pitches a foot outside or head level.

[Moose Milligan]

36 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

 Given that this is the only inning where a team gets to choose who bats, and in what order, this is a terrible indictment of Hyde's lineup construction. In order to win a game we are having to score more runs in eight innings than our opponents do in nine. 

I'm not sure I understand the outrage here, nor do I blame Hyde for this.  Especially working in tandem with analytically and statistically minded guys like Elias and SigBot, this is a bit over the top.

I don't think anyone here would have a different leadoff man than Mullins when healthy.  And I think Adley #2 makes perfect sense.  You hope that Mullins can start the game and that Adley and his .400 OBP can get on...then you've got Mullins and Adley on, in a best case scenario.

Maybe you could flip-flop them with Adley leadoff and Mullins #2, but regardless I think those two have cemented themselves as the top two guys in the order.

Not having a clear cut 3rd hitter is more of an indictment on the roster makeup than blaming Hyde for not being able to make a coherent lineup.  There's no head and shoulders choice for the third spot.

In regards to winning a game by scoring more runs in 8 innings than our opponents have to in 9, that's a bit over the top.  I think it's hard to overcome a lead late in a game, however having 8 innings is still plenty of time to do so.  And the Orioles overall W/L record implies that their first inning offensive woes aren't really hurting the team all that much.

In other words, I am sure every team would love to get out to a lead in the first inning, the Orioles probably aren't any different.  I think this could be chalked up to one of those flukey baseball things.  

[ShoelesJoe]

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I don't think anyone here would have a different leadoff man than Mullins when healthy. 

Mullins is batting .189 / .250 / .189 when leading off the game, and .182 / .259 / .273 when leading off any inning. I think most people here would see that as a huge problem, and look to see if somebody else could do a better job. When Rutschman leads off an inning he's batting .297 / .366 / .487 so there's your solution right there. 

Meanwhile Mullins is batting .359 / .481 / .625 with runners on base, and .432 / .554 / .796 with men in scoring position. Ya, he looks like a leadoff guy but statistically he hits like a middle-of-the-order cleanup batter. He needs to be in one of the 3-4-5 spots in the lineup. 

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In regards to winning a game by scoring more runs in 8 innings than our opponents have to in 9, that's a bit over the top.  I think it's hard to overcome a lead late in a game, however having 8 innings is still plenty of time to do so.  And the Orioles overall W/L record implies that their first inning offensive woes aren't really hurting the team all that much.

Just because we've won games despite our first inning handicap doesn't mean its not a handicap. We're five games back of Tampa and three games ahead of the the MFY. If we had an average first inning offense maybe we're two games out of first, and six in front of the Yankees. Maybe we get to coast the last two weeks of the season instead of being in a dogfight with Toronto, Seattle, and Houston for the last playoff spot. Games lost in the first inning hurt just as much as games lost in the ninth.