How much longer can we endure Mountcastle's and Mateo's OBP?

[maybenxtyr]

Just now, forphase1 said:

Yup, I'd MUCH rather have the consistent guy versus one who gets incredibly hot and then incredibly cold.  Give me the steady guy any day.  

The blame doesn't go just to Santander and Mountcastle last night, but in the 10th when most contact could have potentially moved the runner they both struck out. 

[spiritof66]

26 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Oh and the BIGGEST hole on this team by far cannot be filled by Jordan Westburg and we do not have anyone in the system who is capable of filling it either... It's a frontline starting pitcher.

I guess Plan A for getting a frontline starter is for GRod to develop into one. And Plan B is, um, I don't know what Plan B is or when it might become known. I have an idea what it could be, and that would be an off-season acquisition. I have no reason to think that will happen. Elias seems to think you don;t have to draft high-end pitchers or trade for them or pay them a lot of money -- if you sign enough pitchers who drop out of other teams' trees, one or more of them will become very good starters.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

And that's most likely not happening either. I think they'll trade for a starter at some point, either the deadline or off season, but I don't think Elias burned everything to the ground to just build a system to trade from. I agree that some sacrifices will have to be made, but I think a lot of the upper tier players will find their way into Baltimore.

Ok first, I think he "burned everything to the ground" because it needed to be done #1 and #2 he was a part of a similar strategy of tanking in HOU that was very successful. I imagine he developed core beliefs around that and how to solve the inequity of talent distribution in an uncapped sport like baseball, where a team like the Baltimore Orioles can never be at the top of the food chain in terms of player acquisitions through FA. So there's that part.

Secondly, I believe that a reasonable/logical conclusion that you can draw from his draft strategy the past 5 years is that he anticipated the day when trades would be absolutely necessary (kind of like what HOU did). He kept drafting all position players and no pitchers at the top of EVERY draft. Where did he think the top level pitching would come from? He also had to anticipate that if things went according to plan and guys developed properly, that we would have an abundance of redundant resources/positional prospects and that there would not be enough spots to fit everyone in (kind of like there is right now).

If you are suggesting that one or 2 trades can destroy our system and gut our system, then I would argue that is a flawed premise based on a scarcity mentality. We simply have too many top level/top 100 prospects. Who else could graduate 3 top 5 guys including 2 top #1 prospects in the sport at the time AND STILL have 8 more top 100 prospects with 2 more getting close to joining that list?

I don't think that Elias will ever have an approach like Dumbrowski had to simply use a farm system to trade from to acquire big league players. That's not the kind of market that we are in AND it's certainly NOT the kind of owner that he is employed by who would even be willing to support that approach financially. BUT if Elias believes in this team's ability to be successful playing Fall baseball and if he wants to try and seriously position this team to win a World Series over the next few (3+ years) he is going to have to have at least one starter who is much better than anything we have. You know the kind of guy who you can start game 1 or 7 in a series and can at least even out the odds against a Cole, McClanahan, Gausman, Valdez, deGrom, etc.

I know some fans are absolutely wedded to this notion that the Orioles have to be all homegrown, that we can't trade away any good prospects, and are comfortable with the Orioles always being the underdog/little engine that could.

I hope that Elias is not that dogmatic and is willing to take whatever approach that he can in order to find ultimate success/a championship or 2 or however many.

I hope and believe that Elias amassed this massive war chest so that he could use it strategically to his advantage an appropriate times, so that we would no longer need to operate from a talent disadvantage.

Just look at last night's game as a small example... All of the Yankees best players are on longer term contracts and are 30 and over (Judge, Cole, Rodon, Stanton, Rizzo). Their only hope for improvement is in the development of Volpe and the healthy return of Stanton and Rodon. That's it, for like the next few years. They are good, but old and expensive.

And then think about what we have and what we will have next year, the year after that, etc. As they age and begin to decline, most of our guys will be coming into their prime and peaking. They have Volpe, but we have Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad, etc. But what we don't have and cannot project to have is top talented starting pitchers outside of Grayson (who is still young and learning). We are going to need real starting pitching in order to stand up to these teams even as our young core position players take off.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I guess Plan A for getting a frontline starter is for GRod to develop into one. And Plan B is, um, I don't know what Plan B is or when it might become known. I have an idea what it could be, and that would be an off-season acquisition. I have no reason to think that will happen. Elias seems to think you don;t have to draft high-end pitchers or trade for them or pay them a lot of money -- if you sign enough pitchers who drop out of other teams' trees, one or more of them will become very good starters.

If we are going to win a World Series or at least give ourselves a chance to be among the favorites, (ANY YEAR not just this one) we are going to need more than Grayson.

I don't agree with Plan B involving waiting until the offseason. 1) The Orioles under our current horrible ownership are not ever likely to make that kind of financial investment. 2) You don't know who will be available and too many variables are unknowable to go about things that way deriving any certainty. The moment for us is this year's trade deadline window because this opportunity might not present itself again next year. Who knows what kind injuries or regressions will happen next year? 3) That whole taking other teams scraps and shaking trees theory, has been proven to be repeatable for bullpen success. The odds of that working and working more than once is very low when it comes to impact starting pitchers. They are a very precious commodity in the game and usually orgs treat them as such. You might be able to get a back end of the rotation guy that way, but a top level starter, that's very unlikely.

[interloper]

More upset at Santander not being able to move a runner than anything Mounty or Mateo did. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Of all the top prospects who have come to the show in the last 3 years, how many can you name who didn't struggle initially?

 

Like I said, I’d like to study this in a more systematic way.  My memory isn’t that good either way, but off the top of my head, I believe last year Steven Kwan and Jeremy Pena started extremely well.  Checking — Kwan: .825 OPS in his first 101 PA.  Pena: .800 OPS in his first 100 PA.  This year: Ryan Noda .915 in his first 103 PA, Blake Sabol .803 in his first 100 PA.

Again, I’m not arguing that the odds favor Westburg blazing out of the gate.  But it does happen. 

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, I’d like to study this in a more systematic way.  My memory isn’t that good either way, but off the top of my head, I believe last year Steven Kwan and Jeremy Pena started extremely well.  Checking — Kwan: .825 OPS in his first 101 PA.  Pena: .800 OPS in his first 100 PA.  This year: Ryan Noda .915 in his first 103 PA, Blake Sabol .803 in his first 100 PA.

Again, I’m not arguing that the odds favor Westburg blazing out of the gate.  But it does happen. 

Exactly.  Some struggle, some don't.  It certainly isn't a foregone conclusion that he would be terrible for the first few months/weeks, but of course neither is it a certainty that he'd be good immediately either.  We just don't know until it happens.  I tend to think with his maturity and bat skills that he would not have a huge learning curve, but there is no way to know for sure until it happens.  

[Mr-splash]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Ok first, I think he "burned everything to the ground" because it needed to be done #1 and #2 he was a part of a similar strategy of tanking in HOU that was very successful. I imagine he developed core beliefs around that and how to solve the inequity of talent distribution in an uncapped sport like baseball, where a team like the Baltimore Orioles can never be at the top of the food chain in terms of player acquisitions through FA. So there's that part.

Secondly, I believe that a reasonable/logical conclusion that you can draw from his draft strategy the past 5 years is that he anticipated the day when trades would be absolutely necessary (kind of like what HOU did). He kept drafting all position players and no pitchers at the top of EVERY draft. Where did he think the top level pitching would come from? He also had to anticipate that if things went according to plan and guys developed properly, that we would have an abundance of redundant resources/positional prospects and that there would not be enough spots to fit everyone in (kind of like there is right now).

If you are suggesting that one or 2 trades can destroy our system and gut our system, then I would argue that is a flawed premise based on a scarcity mentality. We simply have too many top level/top 100 prospects. Who else could graduate 3 top 5 guys including 2 top #1 prospects in the sport at the time AND STILL have 8 more top 100 prospects with 2 more getting close to joining that list?

I don't think that Elias will ever have an approach like Dumbrowski had to simply use a farm system to trade from to acquire big league players. That's not the kind of market that we are in AND it's certainly NOT the kind of owner that he is employed by who would even be willing to support that approach financially. BUT if Elias believes in this team's ability to be successful playing Fall baseball and if he wants to try and seriously position this team to win a World Series over the next few (3+ years) he is going to have to have at least one starter who is much better than anything we have. You know the kind of guy who you can start game 1 or 7 in a series and can at least even out the odds against a Cole, McClanahan, Gausman, Valdez, deGrom, etc.

I know some fans are absolutely wedded to this notion that the Orioles have to be all homegrown, that we can't trade away any good prospects, and are comfortable with the Orioles always being the underdog/little engine that could.

I hope that Elias is not that dogmatic and is willing to take whatever approach that he can in order to find ultimate success/a championship or 2 or however many.

I hope and believe that Elias amassed this massive war chest so that he could use it strategically to his advantage an appropriate times, so that we would no longer need to operate from a talent disadvantage.

Just look at last night's game as a small example... All of the Yankees best players are on longer term contracts and are 30 and over (Judge, Cole, Rodon, Stanton, Rizzo). Their only hope for improvement is in the development of Volpe and the healthy return of Stanton and Rodon. That's it, for like the next few years. They are good, but old and expensive.

And then think about what we have and what we will have next year, the year after that, etc. As they age and begin to decline, most of our guys will be coming into their prime and peaking. They have Volpe, but we have Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad, etc. But what we don't have and cannot project to have is top talented starting pitchers outside of Grayson (who is still young and learning). We are going to need real starting pitching in order to stand up to these teams even as our young core position players take off.

The advantage the yankees have is when their guys hit 33+ and begin to age out of their prime they just go out and get a 30 year old superstar free agent and pay him 35 to 40 million dollars a year. 

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

A few people here are pushing for Kjerstad at 1B and while I agree he could have a future there I would be very surprised if he plays 1B is the majors this season.  This is the first season he has seen reps at first and its not even every game.  I saw him in a game at Harrisburg and watched him totally whiff on a throw that short hopped him, not sure he is very comfortable there yet.  Not saying he can't or won't be good at first but I just have a hard time seeing it this year.  

Thanks for your post.     

I think we should notice that this season the O's have played Kjerstad more games at 1B than any other position.   1B - 13, RF-12,  DH-8,   LF -2 .   This indicates a desire on the O's part to get him experience at 1B.   He is probably a better RF at this point but they may want to change that.

With Mullins, Hays and Cowser likely on the team later this year and probably next year there is probabley not lot of games for him in RF.   Both Tony and MLB Pipeline have Kjerstad as a below average runner with a 45 rating.     MLB rates in outfield defense as average (50).  Tony has it as 40/45.    All that probably means the Hays and Cowser are better corner outfielders than Kjerstad.

Kjerstad may have a better chance to break into the majors as a 1B/DH.   Thus the O's playing him at 1B.

 

[wildcard]

Mountcastle is streaky.  When he is hot he is a middle of the order bat.  When he is not hot , he is not.

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Mountcastle is streaky.  When he is hot he is a middle of the order bat.  When he is not hot , he is not.

They can live with Mountcastle... mainly because there's not a replacement for him at the moment.

 

Mateo on the other hand should get until the end of May, after that it would be foolish to keep playing him daily with do many other options.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, I’d like to study this in a more systematic way.  My memory isn’t that good either way, but off the top of my head, I believe last year Steven Kwan and Jeremy Pena started extremely well.  Checking — Kwan: .825 OPS in his first 101 PA.  Pena: .800 OPS in his first 100 PA.  This year: Ryan Noda .915 in his first 103 PA, Blake Sabol .803 in his first 100 PA.

Again, I’m not arguing that the odds favor Westburg blazing out of the gate.  But it does happen. 

Those are some of the few exceptions. But the majority (of even the best/most talented prospects) in recent history struggle when first arriving at the Major League level.

Again, not saying that Westburg can come out of the shoot "guns blazing", I'm just saying that the odds of that are very low given the initial struggles of most prospects in the modern game. It's a crazy jump in competition going from facing the DL Halls and Cole Irvins of the world to having to face a Kevin Gausman and Garrett Cole in back to back games.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

They can live with Mountcastle... mainly because there's not a replacement for him at the moment.

 

Mateo on the other hand should get until the end of May, after that it would be foolish to keep playing him daily with do many other options.

I am not sure when the O's will change Mateo playing time but if Ortiz shows he can hit Mateo is probably in trouble keeping SS to himself.   Ortiz is playing 3B tonight.   If he hits.....

[Bemorewins]

46 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

The advantage the yankees have is when their guys hit 33+ and begin to age out of their prime they just go out and get a 30 year old superstar free agent and pay him 35 to 40 million dollars a year. 

They can get maybe 1 or 2, but we have a slew of young guys who will all be better. Yes they have Judge and Cole and we may not be likely to be able to match that talent, but how long can those guys stay at their level? And we are probably projected to be better just about everywhere else. MLB is not the NBA, it takes more than 1 or 2 top talented guys to win consistently.

Also, in the modern game because there is so much money in contracts, even the very top/most expensive teams are limited to how many that they can have on their roster. That's why teams like the Dodgers covet their prospects and put so much into having a top level farm. The Yankees nor Red Sox have anything close to a top level farm. Both have 1 singular top 50 prospect and both combined have only 5 top 100 prospects which is less than our 8.

There is a reason that MLB put rules in place to try to discourage teams from tanking going forward because they say the extreme measures that we took and the "fruits of out labor" and realized that we are going to have a talent advantage for a while.

[Mr-splash]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Thanks for your post.     

I think we should notice that this season the O's have played Kjerstad more games at 1B than any other position.   1B - 13, RF-12,  DH-8,   LF -2 .   This indicates a desire on the O's part to get him experience at 1B.   He is probably a better RF at this point but they may want to change that.

With Mullins, Hays and Cowser likely on the team later this year and probably next year there is probabley not lot of games for him in RF.   Both Tony and MLB Pipeline have Kjerstad as a below average runner with a 45 rating.     MLB rates in outfield defense as average (50).  Tony has it as 40/45.    All that probably means the Hays and Cowser are better corner outfielders than Kjerstad.

Kjerstad may have a better chance to break into the majors as a 1B/DH.   Thus the O's playing him at 1B.

 

1B is fine. Somebody has to lay 1B. And right now our everyday 1B cant get on base. The position is there for the taking.