A dangerous time

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Mountcastle is kind of a convenient whipping boy at the moment.  Granted, his OBP has been stubbornly low so far this year, but his power numbers are good.   He’s always been a streaky hitter.  Last year he had 3 months with an OBP under .300; in 2021 he had 4.   In the past, he’s also had hot months with OBP’s like .362, 382, .397.  So, I don’t think two low OBP months dooms him to be sub-.300 for the year.  It could happen, but it doesn’t have to.

The last two years, at the 54 game mark Mountcastle had an OPS of .628 in 2021 (OBP .255), .719 in 2022 (OBP of .303).  Both years, he had a really good June.  We’ll see how it goes this year.  

Well, he's a convenient whipping boy because he's not performing.  If he was performing, nobody would be criticizing him.

I think we all acknowledge he's capable of doing better; it's part of what drives the criticism.

If he starts performing better, I will criticize him less.  And for the record, I hope that's exactly what happens.  I hope he gets red hot; we need it.

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

Are we no longer considering the data supporting him being one of the unluckiest batters in MLB this year? I guess at some point but it is what it is but you’d expect better results.

Interesting to consider Mountcastle’s performance and estimation on this board vs our expectations of our top notch prospects. We were CONFIDENTLY assured for years that we *knew* Mountcastle would hit.

Honestly, I've been thinking about this.

First, I think it's totally possible to be a guy who consistently underperforms their estimated performances in the same way there are pitchers who are regularly able to better their FIPs.

Secondly, I think it's time we start to consider if Mountcastle is one of those guys.  I think it's because of the way he hits.  He hits a lot of balls in the air from power alley to power alley.  That's the biggest part of the park.  You can hit the ball "hard" to there and still consistently make outs.  And this is what I notice on my observations of Mountcastle.

Edited May 30, 2023 by Pickles

[Mr-splash]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Honestly, I've been thinking about this.

First, I think it's totally possible to be a guy who consistently underperforms their estimated performances in the same way there are pitchers who are regularly able to better their FIPs.

Secondly, I think it's time we start to consider if Mountcastle isn't one of those guys.  I think it's because of the way he hits.  He hits a lot of balls in the air from power alley to power alley.  That's the biggest part of the park.  You can hit the ball "hard" to there and still consistently make outs.  And this is what I notice on my observations of Mountcastle.

Guys who hit fly balls from power alley to power alley seem to profile as low BABIP guys. So there may be some truth to this. 

[orioles119]

[orioles119]

But seriously... even in their best years from the early 2010's had losing streaks.  It's how the team responds to them that will tell more about the team than the previous 54 games.

[Oriole1940]

I have thought about this all year.  Too many appear to be Streak hitters.   Usually hot or cold, not Steady.  Although some streakiness is attributed to the quality of the other guys SP.  I remember one time Earl was asked about starting a winning streak,  He replied, paraphrasing, that depends on the other guys SP.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Honestly, I've been thinking about this.

First, I think it's totally possible to be a guy who consistently underperforms their estimated performances in the same way there are pitchers who are regularly able to better their FIPs.

Secondly, I think it's time we start to consider if Mountcastle is one of those guys.  I think it's because of the way he hits.  He hits a lot of balls in the air from power alley to power alley.  That's the biggest part of the park.  You can hit the ball "hard" to there and still consistently make outs.  And this is what I notice on my observations of Mountcastle.

First of all, I think you may be correct that it’s not only luck that’s involved.

Second, the gap between Mounrcastle’s wOBA and his xwOBA has been shrinking as the season has gone along.  On April 30, Mountcastle had a .291 wOBA and a .393 xwOBA, a 102 point gap.  Now, he’s at .305/.371, a 66 point gap.  So, I think it’s fair to surmise that though Mountcastle may have had some bad luck in April, that hasn’t really been a significant issue in May.

Third, Mountcastle had a wOBA higher than his xwOBA in 2020 and 2021, so it’s not clear he’s someone who always will underperform his expected numbers.  
 

[Morgan423]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

First of all, I think you may be correct that it’s not only luck that’s involved.

Second, the gap between Mounrcastle’s wOBA and his xwOBA has been shrinking as the season has gone along.  On April 30, Mountcastle had a .291 wOBA and a .393 xwOBA, a 102 point gap.  Now, he’s at .305/.371, a 66 point gap.  So, I think it’s fair to surmise that though Mountcastle may have had some bad luck in April, that hasn’t really been a significant issue in May.

Third, Mountcastle had a wOBA higher than his xwOBA in 2020 and 2021, so it’s not clear he’s someone who always will underperform his expected numbers.  
 

Yeah, Mountcastle spent April crushing baseballs directly at fielders.  His EV and Hard Hit percentages are above league average (currently 92.2 mph and 47.3% versus league averages that are about 4 mph and 5% lower, but these have normalized in May, these numbers were ludicrously higher vs the league in April).  And his BABIP, although slowly climbing recently, is still about 45 points below league average (.258 versus .303 for the league). 

I honestly don't know what exactly causes this.  For a small sample size you can go "it's bad luck," but at a certain point you have to start wondering what it is in his swing that causes him to crush baseballs in a way where he's almost subconsciously aiming at fielders. 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Morgan423

[Jagwar]

6 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Last week we were flying high off a sweep of the Jays.  Amazing how quickly the mood can turn.

A June Swoon certainly feels imminent.  Or do I just have PTSD from 2005 still?

 

 

I still haven't gotten over the 14-42 collapse in 1986

[Fiver6565]

Don't worry about the danger guys, Aaron Hicks is here!

[sportsfan8703]

This feels like a night where Adley steps up. Let the captain carry us. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

I still haven't gotten over the 14-42 collapse in 1986

There have been so many.  4-32 in 2002 after getting to 63-63 on August 23.  

[Jagwar]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There have been so many.  4-32 in 2002 after getting to 63-63 on August 23.  

1986 was the most painful for me. The O's were playing fantastic baseball, pulling to within 2 games of the Clemens-led Red Sox in August. Then a disastrous series in Texas I think? then a steady collapse

[Pickles]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

First of all, I think you may be correct that it’s not only luck that’s involved.

Second, the gap between Mounrcastle’s wOBA and his xwOBA has been shrinking as the season has gone along.  On April 30, Mountcastle had a .291 wOBA and a .393 xwOBA, a 102 point gap.  Now, he’s at .305/.371, a 66 point gap.  So, I think it’s fair to surmise that though Mountcastle may have had some bad luck in April, that hasn’t really been a significant issue in May.

Third, Mountcastle had a wOBA higher than his xwOBA in 2020 and 2021, so it’s not clear he’s someone who always will underperform his expected numbers.  
 

To keep with the rhetorical arrangement: First, I think it is all driven by his approach.  He's not selective enough.  That's the underlying problem and no, that isn't luck.

Second, to the eye test that seems fair.  That's how I would recall it.  It's not, as Morgan suggests, really an issue about hitting it directly at fielders.  Much more generally, it's about balls in the air between the power alleys.  It's like great, that was 94 off the bat, and 380 feet, but it's just a fly out at the end of the day.

Third, I won't say Mountcastle is destined to underperform his expected performances, but it seems to me certain profiles would be, and perhaps his is one of them.

[LA2]

On 5/30/2023 at 11:36 AM, wildcard said:

A lot of dome and gloom here.   This team has been resilient. 

We don't play Seattle until June 23rd!