Specific Trade Ideas

[HakunaSakata]

13 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I am open to Bellinger, but doubt Stowers and an A ball pitcher like either of the ones mentioned, gets it done.  

Have you looked at Belinger's statcast page? #notgreatbob

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Tryptamine]

25 minutes ago, interloper said:

They won't do it, but I'd love to see something like this. 

Cubs Receive: Kyle Stowers + A-ball SP (Bright? Nunez?). Cubs get a plug-and-play ML-ready power COF bat and a pitching flier. 

Orioles Receive: Cody Bellinger

As a straight 2-month rental, Bellinger would provide:

• Left-handed power in CF (145 OPS+).
• An upgrade over Hicks offensively and defensively, who has a .647 OPS in July and sinking quickly. 
• World Series experience and former MVP, while still fitting the team's age demo at only 28.
• Ability to slide to the OF corners or 1B when Mullins returns. 
• A stupid-good lineup vs RHP:

Mullins CF
Adley C
Santander DH
Henderson SS
Bellinger LF
O'Hearn 1B
Hays RF
Urias/Frazier 2B
Westburg 3B

The current rumor is the Yankees are likely to acquire him to make it seem like they're trying, which is stupid, but I do expect them to land him. The Orioles, as they should be, are more focused on pitching. But I look at this offense and I feel like it could use a proven bat, and I am ready to jump off the USS Aaron Hicks because that ship is about to sink hard. Anyway - it won't happen, but I think it's a really great fit considering our CF issues at the moment. 

Not that this would get it done anyway, but the Cubs have a RF and LF signed long term with top 10 prospect in baseball Pete Crow-Armstrong basically ready for 2024 opening day. Stowers would have no place to play.

[Greg Pappas]

14 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Have you looked at Belinger's statcast page? #notgreatbob

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Not until now, no.  I'm unfamiliar with that site.  What are you getting from it?  Bellinger is overhyped? I appreciate the info... it is informing.  Seems like Bellinger has lower than ideal underlying stats.

Edited July 24, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Not that this would get it done anyway, but the Cubs have a RF and LF signed long term with top 10 prospect in baseball Pete Crow-Armstrong basically ready for 2024 opening day. Stowers would have no place to play.

Good point. I didn't really look at their roster. It's a tough matchup - I'm very curious who they get for him. Like, Ortiz feels like too much already for a rental bat. A rental SP on the other hand, I think Ortiz is a valid ask. I'm not sure who our main piece of the trade would be. A legit SP like Rom or Povich also feels like too much. 

Wagner - upside infielder
Prieto - ML-ready infielder
A or AA SP?

[interloper]

14 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Have you looked at Belinger's statcast page? #notgreatbob

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Fascinating! That does kind of change my view. It's tough to have a .900+ OPS with statcast numbers like that. Hm. 

The redeeming factor is the defensive profile, though. We could really use that in the outfield. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by interloper

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Good point. I didn't really look at their roster. It's a tough matchup - I'm very curious who they get for him. Like, Ortiz feels like too much already for a rental bat. A rental SP on the other hand, I think Ortiz is a valid ask. I'm not sure who our main piece of the trade would be. A legit SP like Rom or Povich also feels like too much. 

Wagner - upside infielder
Prieto - ML-ready infielder
A or AA SP?

In order of priority 1B/3B > SP  

2B, SS, RF and LF are locked up on contracts.  Mountcastle won't do anything for them as they have Mervis. They're also desperately looking for power because after Bellinger is gone, they don't have anyone who is going to reach 25 HR. SP is the strength of the farm.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

In order of priority 1B/3B > SP  

2B, SS, RF and LF are locked up on contracts.  Mountcastle won't do anything for them as they have Mervis. They're also desperately looking for power because after Bellinger is gone, they don't have anyone who is going to reach 25 HR. SP is the strength of the farm.

If the Orioles are not a match for the Cubs (which they probably aren't) we just quickly move on and pivot to the next club that we are. 

From everything indicated by Elias, we are not going after position players. IMO we don't even have a need for Bellinger as the OF is already overcrowded (particularly when Mullins returns).

I'm meh on Stroman as well. Nice pick up, but I'm not moving heaven and earth to get him.... On to the next. There are other pitchers who wil be available who can help.

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Some interesting odds from Draft Kings on where certain players will be playing after Aug 1st...

Blake Snell : -120 SD, +750 Tex, +800 Bal, +1000 TB

Ed Rod: +425 Tex, +500 LAD, +600 BAL, +600 DET

Jordan Montgomery: +450 LAD, +500 STL +600 BAL

Much longer odds for the O's for Giolito, Stroman, Verlander, Scherzer, Ohtani

If I had to guess the O's will get a SP left after Texas and LAD trade for a starter.  Surprised the O's aren't in on Giolito. 

[OriolesMagic83]

29 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

In order of priority 1B/3B > SP  

2B, SS, RF and LF are locked up on contracts.  Mountcastle won't do anything for them as they have Mervis. They're also desperately looking for power because after Bellinger is gone, they don't have anyone who is going to reach 25 HR. SP is the strength of the farm.

What about Urias?  He's an extra part for the O's, but could plug in several positions for the Cubs.

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

What about Urias?  He's an extra part for the O's, but could plug in several positions for the Cubs.

Doesn't help with the lack of power  and the Cubs already have that same guy in Nick Madrigal.

[Fan4Life]

I noticed Kjerstad playing 1b recently. I know it is a system preference to have multi-positional players.. but this could adjust who is available in a trade? Mayo?

[Billy F-Face3]

5 minutes ago, Fan4Life said:

I noticed Kjerstad playing 1b recently. I know it is a system preference to have multi-positional players.. but this could adjust who is available in a trade? Mayo?

Just in Norfolk since he was promoted to AAA: Only 6 games at 1B, but 20 games playing the Outfield.

I wouldn't read too much into it. Just the position versatility that this organization has a philosophy of for some reason. (I'd imagine a player develops more consistency faster when they can focus on 1 position at a time.)

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

Not until now, no.  I'm unfamiliar with that site.  What are you getting from it?  Bellinger is overhyped? I appreciate the info... it is informing.  Seems like Bellinger has lower than ideal underlying stats.

Statcast data isn't the end all be all, but it's a pretty good indicator of whether or not someone's performance is sustainable. The underlining numbers suggest Bellinger' success this season is mostly smoke and mirrors. The graphic in the middle (top of the page) is the easiest one to wrap your head around. Basically blue is bad and red is good. Bellinger hasn't been hitting the ball hard or "barreling" it. 

For comparison, look at the same graphic for Gunnar. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/gunnar-henderson-683002?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Fascinating! That does kind of change my view. It's tough to have a .900+ OPS with statcast numbers like that. Hm. 

The redeeming factor is the defensive profile, though. We could really use that in the outfield. 

Agreed, but you'd have to overpay for the bat (which might disappear).  I do like some of the bullpen guys on the Cubs though. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

In order of priority 1B/3B > SP  

2B, SS, RF and LF are locked up on contracts.  Mountcastle won't do anything for them as they have Mervis. They're also desperately looking for power because after Bellinger is gone, they don't have anyone who is going to reach 25 HR. SP is the strength of the farm.

This doesn't change your points, but I think there's a pretty good chance Morel hits 25+ HRs.