Thoughts on deep playoff run?

[Aglets]

My thoughts on a deep playoff run are that I would be very much in favor of it.

[Aristotelian]

It is incredibly hard to win the World Series, even when you have the best or near best team. I always remember '97. That team was absolutely stacked and deserved to win, but a couple bad calls, bad pitches, and Fernandez/Grissom going nuts and we got beat by an inferior team. They, in turn, got beat by a team that was inferior to them. Which is to say that I will never feel "good" about our chances to go deep. 

We have shown we can beat good teams: TOR, MIN, I believe we are split with NYY and TEX. We have also lost to good teams like CIN and ATL.

I think we are better than the 2016 team that won our division and made it to the ALCS. We are a very good team that is capable of going deep. Our chances would go up a lot by winning the division just to avoid the extra three game series. One less coin flip we'd have to win. 

[clapdiddy]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

There is NO WAY that they would be favored in a series against the Braves. The Braves have a MUCH better rotation (especially if/when Fried returns) and they have a better offense than we do currently.

I think next year our offense can equal or even surpass theirs if/when Kjerstad, Mayo, and Holliday join the team. However, they still have a tremendous advantage with their rotation.

Without McClanahan, I think we are probably even with the Rays. I think that the Rangers may be a little better than us, but without deGrom we have a decent shot at upsetting them in the postseason.

There is a BIG DIFFERENCE however, between having success over the long haul of the regular season (due to superior depth and an ELITE back end of the bullpen) and winning in a short series in the Fall. The Yankees for example with their older roster of stars and scrubs are not really built for regular season dominance. But in the post season if/when they can throw Cole and Rendon at you in a short series, combined with what Judge and possibly Stanton can do, they can matchup with anyone.

I actually would prefer to avoid the Yankees at all cost. I can see them winning game 1 with Cole out pitching our starter and then seeing a game in Yankee stadium where Wells gives up a bomb or 2 or 3 and then the thing being over.

The Braves definitely have better pitching.  Not that this is the same team, but you could say that about the 1991-2000 Braves teams.  They had great pitching, but only won one WS title.   

I think once you get into the playoffs, the team on a roll tends to win.   Look at the Phillies run last year.   They got hot at the right time and rolled through the playoffs.    Granted, a lot of that was because of their pitching getting hot, but who's to say that can't happen for the Orioles?   Bradish and Wells can be dominant at times.   They could be the Aaron Nola/Zack Wheeler of this season in the playoffs.  Maybe GRod comes back up and performs well.   Who knows?

I think your statements are valid, but once the playoffs start, anything can happen.

[dzorange]

The Orioles are coming, and there's so much luck with the playoffs, but I'm not getting my hopes up for a deep run.

We'll see where they are come the trade deadline. If a division crown is still a realistic possibility at that point, I'd be surprised if Elias isn't aggressive with a trade or two. If he pulls something off, then they're clearly trying to make a deep run in the playoffs. Trade for a starter, call up Rodriguez and put him in the bullpen.

If the O's are looking like a Wild Card team at best at that point, I don't see them pulling off a trade for a major rental and they've tempered expectations. Elias isn't going to make a notable move if he isn't expecting this team to be able to go on a run in the playoffs. They'll call up Rodriguez and insert him into the rotation and hope for the best. Maybe the O's can get hot with what they have in-house and get lucky with a guy like John Means.

Next two weeks will be telling.

Edited July 13, 2023 by dzorange

[TopGunnar]

It’d be really great to see the Orioles in the Alds

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

The Braves definitely have better pitching.  Not that this is the same team, but you could say that about the 1991-2000 Braves teams.  They had great pitching, but only won one WS title.   

I think once you get into the playoffs, the team on a roll tends to win.   Look at the Phillies run last year.   They got hot at the right time and rolled through the playoffs.    Granted, a lot of that was because of their pitching getting hot, but who's to say that can't happen for the Orioles?   Bradish and Wells can be dominant at times.   They could be the Aaron Nola/Zack Wheeler of this season in the playoffs.  Maybe GRod comes back up and performs well.   Who knows?

I think your statements are valid, but once the playoffs start, anything can happen.

This Braves team is nothing like that one from 20-30 years ago. This team has already won 1 World Series which is the total that all of those previous great teams were able to win.

The Phillies did get hot until the ran into the superior pitching of the Houston Astros in the World Series.

You are correct in that there is a degree of volatility within a short post season series. But I don't want to have to be dependent on statistical deviations, luck, or certain players getting hot and outperforming their norms.

I would prefer to enter this post season and the next several with the best and most complete roster that we can. Right now we have a big hole in our rotation and another one in middle relief. That seems to be a dangerous combo if you want to be successful for 3/4 rounds.

[RVAOsFan]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

First things first.  Make the playoffs.  I’m normally pessimistic concerning the randomness and luck even affecting great teams in the playoffs.   I’m feeling pretty good about the offense with reduced time for Mateo and even Frazier and the addition of Westburg and Cowser.   Unless Baker and Baumann step up I think we are one high leverage arm short in the bullpen.   I don’t believe one starter can be the savior and I think Gioloto, Stroman, etc. will probably not be the savior some hope for but that would certainly increase our chances.   I feel like ERod was dominant looking for Detroit before he went down and he would be my choice.

I’m okay with dealing extra pieces even including Ortiz but no one above that which includes 7 prospects.   Prefer not to even use Ortiz in a trade.

Fabian, Norby, Hall, Prieto, Willems, all ok to go.

If they can get the velocity back in the Florida experiment that is on going I would prefer to hold on to Hall.  I think he could be more valuable in the bullpen to us than what he would return in a trade at this point.

[deward]

2 minutes ago, dzorange said:

The Orioles are coming, and there's so much luck with the playoffs, but I'm not getting my hopes up for a deep run.

We'll see where they are come the trade deadline. If a division crown is still a realistic possibility at that point, I'd be surprised if Elias isn't aggressive with a trade or two. If he pulls something off, then they're clearly trying to make a deep run in the playoffs.

If the O's are looking like a Wild Card team at best at that point, I don't see them pulling off a trade for a major rental and they've tempered expectations. Elias isn't going to make a notable move if he isn't expecting this team to be able to go on a run in the playoffs.

Next two weeks will be telling.

I think there will be a trade or two, but I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you're expecting Elias to get aggressive. That just hasn't been his MO. 

Assuming they stay healthy, I don't see why they wouldn't have as good a shot at making a deep run as any other wild card team. October is all about who's hot at the right time. If they O's roll into a short series playing like they just played in Minnesota, they'll beat anybody. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

This Braves team is nothing like that one from 20-30 years ago. This team has already won 1 World Series which is the total that all of those previous great teams were able to win.

The Phillies did get hot until the ran into the superior pitching of the Houston Astros in the World Series.

You are correct in that there is a degree of volatility within a short post season series. But I don't want to have to be dependent on statistical deviations, luck, or certain players getting hot and outperforming their norms.

I would prefer to enter this post season and the next several with the best and most complete roster that we can. Right now we have a big hole in our rotation and another one in middle relief. That seems to be a dangerous combo if you want to be successful for 3/4 rounds.

Saw a fun picture of the Braves All-Stars this morning.

[Bemorewins]

To those contending that success in the postseason depends largely on "luck", how would you explain the Houston Astros of the last 6/7 years? Were they that "lucky" consistently?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Saw a fun picture of the Braves All-Stars this morning.

Wonder how many of them they will regret giving the contract extensions to?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

To those contending that success in the postseason depends largely on "luck", how would you explain the Houston Astros of the last 6/7 years? Were they that "lucky" consistently?

Well they were cheating in at least one of those years....

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

To those contending that success in the postseason depends largely on "luck", how would you explain the Houston Astros of the last 6/7 years? Were they that "lucky" consistently?

There was an element of luck in every single year. That is always the case in every sport, every year.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Saw a fun picture of the Braves All-Stars this morning.

Are the numbers in front of each player, the year that they will be a free agent?

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Well they were cheating in at least one of those years....

Wasn't it alleged and maybe even proven that others like the Yankees and Red Sox were cheating too?