AL Playoff Race - 9 weeks left- now 1 week

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, fernandodfcosta said:

Texas has the hardest path by far!!! I think they will miss the playoffs.

We know somebody out of TEX/SEA/HOU/TOR will. 

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Viewing the last 11 series with the take that CLE in the 3rd to last, and BOS in the last series will be out of it, I think it unrolls that in as many as 7 out of 11 series opponent has nothing serious to play for, while the Orioles and Rays duel for the bye.

It could be a year for some Red Sox Curse of the Andino getting even though.

The Red Sox will play us tough. They don’t worry me but they won’t be easy. 

 

 

[eddie83]

Interesting weekend. CLE won their first series all month over TOR. SEA is on fire and TEX continues to struggle. BAL remains in same spot as Friday with 3 more games off schedule. TOR continues their “easy” part of the schedule. BAL plays one more game than TB this week. Next week TB plays one more game. I personally would take a push this week in the loss column concerning the Orioles and Rays. 
 

AL playoff race 

AL East                        GB           GL 

BAL        81-49                            32
TB          80-52             2.0         30


TOR       71-60             10.5        31


BOS       69-62           12.5         31


NYY       62-68            18.0         32

AL Central 
MINN      68-63                          31
CLE         62-69           6.0          31

AL West
SEA         74-56                        32
TEX        73-57           1.0          32
HOU       74-58          1.0          30

AL WC
TB             80-52                 +6.0
TEX           73-57


HOU          74-58                 - - - 
——————
TOR          71-60                2.5
BOS          69-62               4.5

SCHEDULES

BAL 
  
CWS (3)    @ARZ (3)                 
@LAA (3)    @BOS (3)
STL (3)    TB (4)
@HOU (3)    @CLE (4)
WAS (2)    BOS (4)

TB
  
 @MIA (2)    @ CLE (3)               
BOS (3)    SEA (4)
@MIN (3)    @BAL (4)
LAA (3)    TOR (3)
BOS (2)    @TOR (3)
    

TOR
    
 WAS (3)     @COL (3)                
@OAK (3)     KC (3)
TEX (4)     BOS (3)
@NYY (3)    @TB (3)
NYY (3)    TB (3)

BOS
    
 HOU (3)    @KC (3)                  
@TB (3)    BAL (3)
NYY (4)     @TOR (3)
@TEX (3)    CWS (3)
TB (2)    @BAL (4)

NYY
    
@DET (4)    @HOU (3)              
DET (3)    MIL (3)
@BOS (4)    @PIT (3)
TOR (3)    ARZ (3)
@TOR (3)    @KC (3)

—————————————
MIN
    
 CLE (3)     @TEX (3)               
@CLE (3)     NYM (3)
TB (3)    @CWS (4)
@CIN (3)    LAA (3)
OAK (3)    @COL (3)

CLE
    
 MIN (3)    TB (3)                       
MIN(3)    @LAA (4)
@SF (3)    TEX (3)
@KC (3)    BAL (4)
CIN (2)    @DET (3) 

———————————-

TEX
    
@NYM (3)    MIN (3)                   
HOU (3)    OAK (3)
@TOR (4)    @CLE (3)
BOS (3)    SEA (3)
@LAA (3)    @ SEA (4) 

HOU
    
@BOS (3)    NYY (3)                  
@TEX (3)    SD (3)
OAK (3)    @KC (3)
BAL (3)     KC (3)
@SEA (3)    @ARZ (3)

SEA
  
OAK (3)    @NYM (3)               
@CIN (3)    @TB (4)
LAA (3)    LAD (3)
@OAK (3)    @TEX (3)
HOU (3)    TEX (4)
 

[ORIOLE33]

We're in a good spot, but I don't like us treading water with this 2 game lead. 

[eddie83]

Toronto has issues. 
 

https://x.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1695952386030739880?s=46&t=R4OhBF-rpBzlc0knCAxtqg

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, ORIOLE33 said:

We're in a good spot, but I don't like us treading water with this 2 game lead. 

Tampas on a hot streak. Just keep beating up on the bad teams in the soft part of our schedule, we’ll be good. 

[Just Regular]

Noticed today for the first time our 1-2 games behind Tampa on the schedule doesn't resolve until the final 2 weeks.

Tomorrow we play and they don't so it will go to half games for awhile.     I'd guessed it would move smoothly from -1 to 0.    But next week the delta between the two teams goes back to Tampa 2 ahead, and it doesn't resolve until the final 2 weeks, when we have one more than them both times.

After our mid-September showdown, they have 3 offdays to our 1 the last 14 days.    It also means for them - following this week's very light 5 game schedule, they play 14 games in 14 days, ending with the OPACY clash.

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Noticed today for the first time our 1-2 games behind Tampa on the schedule doesn't resolve until the final 2 weeks.

Tomorrow we play and they don't so it will go to half games for awhile.     I'd guessed it would move smoothly from -1 to 0.    But next week the delta between the two teams goes back to Tampa 2 ahead, and it doesn't resolve until the final 2 weeks, when we have one more than them both times.

After our mid-September showdown, they have 3 offdays to our 1 the last 14 days.    It also means for them - following this week's very light 5 game schedule, they play 14 games in 14 days, ending with the OPACY clash.

Each team plays 15 games until the 4 game series. Looking at each teams schedule I would take this same 2 game advantage - 3 in loss column -into that huge series. If the Orioles were to split that’s a 3.5 game advantage in the loss column with BAL having 13 games left and TB 11. 

[eddie83]

Also wanted to mention CLE and MINN play 6 of next 9. Whatever chance CLE has it’s go time. 

[Just Regular]

28 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Toronto has issues. 
 

https://x.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1695952386030739880?s=46&t=R4OhBF-rpBzlc0knCAxtqg

Short term they do enjoy two Gausman starts and a Nationals-Rockies slate this week.

I thought the initial Bo Bichette leg injury looked pretty bad when it occurred against us.    I believe superstars get the biggest injury fudges, and opportunities to play at less than peak capability.    Its the dog days.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I want at least a 3 game lead when Tampa comes to town. Even if we only win one game, we still have a division lead. Then we control our own destiny completely as they don't play us again. (I know, technically we control our own destiny now, but then they have to scoreboard watch more)

[Just Regular]

I'm conflicted how to root CLE-MIN.

In CLE's favor, if Pablo, Sonny and Joe Ryan are pushed in September that's helpful if we see them at some point.

In MIN's favor, we play CLE games 153-156.      CLE has a lot of talented young Arms near the end of their 2023 rope.     They may or may not be freshly eliminated that series, and giving Williams/Bibee a rest instead of a final challenge against the BAL lineup when they are tired could look good.

CLE knows what McKenzie and Bieber's real health status is, but the world will get to find out some more info next month.     Civale for Manzardo is still kind of open to interpretation if it was a white flag, or buying and selling simultaneously.     Manzardo might enter their lineup more easily than Cowser/Kjerstad ours.

 

[eddie83]

BOS who were already a long shot after being swept by HOU look finished. CLE hangs around beating MIN 2/3. BAL down to a 2 game lead in loss column. 

Key series this weekend  TB@CLE, MIN@TEX 
 

AL playoff race 

AL East                        GB           GL 

BAL        83-50                           29
TB          82-52             1.5          28


TOR       73-61              10.5       28


BOS       69-65           14.5         28


NYY       65-68            18.0         29

AL Central
MIN        69-65                         28
CLE        64-70           5.0         28

AL West
SEA        76-57                         29
HOU       77-58                         27
TEX         75-58           1.0         29 

AL WC
TB             82-52                +6.5
HOU         77-58                  +1.0


TEX          75-58                  - - 
——————
TOR          73-61              2.5
BOS          69-65            6.5

SCHEDULES

BAL 
       @ARZ (3)                 
@LAA (3)    @BOS (3)
STL (3)    TB (4)
@HOU (3)    @CLE (4)
WAS (2)    BOS (4)

TB
  @ CLE (3)               
BOS (3)    SEA (4)
@MIN (3)    @BAL (4)
LAA (3)    TOR (3)
BOS (2)    @TOR (3)
    

TOR
  @COL (3)                
@OAK (3)     KC (3)
TEX (4)     BOS (3)
@NYY (3)    @TB (3)
NYY (3)    TB (3)

 

BOS
     @KC (3)                  
@TB (3)    BAL (3)
NYY (4)     @TOR (3)
@TEX (3)    CWS (3)
TB (2)    @BAL (4)

NYY
       @HOU (3)              
DET (3)    MIL (3)
@BOS (4)    @PIT (3)
TOR (3)    ARZ (3)
@TOR (3)    @KC (3)

MIN
   @TEX (3)               
@CLE (3)     NYM (3)
TB (3)    @CWS (4)
@CIN (3)    LAA (3)
OAK (3)    @COL (3)

CLE
     TB (3)                       
MIN(3)    @LAA (4)
@SF (3)    TEX (3)
@KC (3)    BAL (4)
CIN (2)    @DET (3) 

 

TEX
   MIN (3)                   
HOU (3)    OAK (3)
@TOR (4)    @CLE (3)
BOS (3)    SEA (3)
@LAA (3)    @ SEA (4) 

HOU
      NYY (3)                  
@TEX (3)    SD (3)
OAK (3)    @KC (3)
BAL (3)     KC (3)
@SEA (3)    @ARZ (3)

SEA
   @NYM (3)               
@CIN (3)    @TB (4)
LAA (3)    LAD (3)
@OAK (3)    @TEX (3)
HOU (3)    TEX (4)
 

[oriolediehard]

Tampa is red hot now, I hope we can keep up with them. I hope we take 3 of 4 against them.  If we are behind them a split won't help us.

[glenn__davis]

9 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Tampa is red hot now, I hope we can keep up with them. I hope we take 3 of 4 against them.  If we are behind them a split won't help us.

Well a split wouldn't help us catch them but it would still help us immensely.  Just winning one game gives the season series which would be huge.  And a split where we lose no ground would be a lot better than going 1-3 and losing 2 games.

Long way to go still.