Jordan Westburg 2023

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

One of the best defensive plays of the year by Westburg to help ice the game against the Angels.'

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Just Regular]

50 games along Westburg has his 162 Game Average up to 3.8 WAR on B-Ref.

A basic tenet of hedge fund play is maximizing Wins for a LINEUP SLOT if you don't have a powerful enough everyday option, but for me around a 3 win player is where it starts getting to I'm Better Than What You Can Mix and Match.

That's with what feels like a fair number of warning track well struck hits.      Curious to see if the SLG climbs the 400's.    These Angels Arms and a Fenway weekend may give some opportunities.

[Tony-OH]

On 8/23/2023 at 10:33 PM, Frobby said:

Per Kevin Brown, Westburg was clocked at 30.4 ft/sec beating out that throw in the 8th inning tonight.  Statcast has him at 28.9 on the season, good for the 89th percentile.   

@Tony-OH’s scouting report had Westburg at 60 speed.  Fangraphs said 50.  Based on the data we have now, I’d have to say Tony’s grade was conservative, and Fangraphs was a flat miss. 

I’m always surprised when speed grades are off by a lot.  Obviously with other tools, scouts are judging how things will translate at the highest level.  But speed is speed, you can check it with a stopwatch.  Many scouts have been off on Mountcastle, they’ve been off on Westburg, and IMO they’re off on Kjerstad.  I don’t get how that happens with the least subjective of all the tools.  

 

Part of it is now that we have sprint speed which gives you the average ft/sec he runs during a sprint is a little different then using the old scouting scale that was devised from sprints to first base with a stop watch. I do stop watch guys at times on real sprints to first to get an idea of speed but I also use the "eye test" on how fast they look when they run around the bases for minor leaguers. I haven't done the analysis but I guess you could probably use statcast sprint speed data and measure it up against the scouting charts used for decades and see if they match up. 

I wish we had the statcast info that we have on the major league players with minor league players but at least now we have AAA statcast game reports. Hopefully MLB will give us more minor league data to work from. 

Objective Tool Grades

Objective Tool Grades

	Tool Is Called	Fastball Velo	Batting Avg	Homers	RHH to 1B	LHH to 1B	60 Yd Run
80	80	97	.320	40+	4.00	3.90	6.3
75		96	.310	35-40	4.05	3.95	6.4
70	Plus Plus	95	.300	30-35	4.10	4.00	6.5
65		94	.290	27-30	4.15	4.05	6.6
60	Plus	93	.280	23-27	4.20	4.10	6.7
55	Above Avg	92	.270	19-22	4.25	4.15	6.8
50	Avg	90-91	.260	15-18	4.30	4.20	6.9-7.0
45	Below Avg	89	.250	12-15	4.35	4.25	7.1
40		88	.240	8-12	4.40	4.30	7.2
35		87	.230	5-8	4.45	4.35	7.3
30		86	.220	3-5	4.50	4.40	7.4

 

According to Statcast, Westburg's avg time to 1B is 4.36 seconds which would give him a 45 scouting grade. 

Here's the definition of sprint speed. The red bolded part is why it more useful then home to 1st times. 

Basically Westburg may be an average to slightly below average runner home to first, but when you expand it out to his running around the bases he's much faster. 

Quote

Sprint Speed (SS)

Definition

Introduced during the 2017 season, Sprint Speed is a Statcast metric that aims to more precisely quantify speed by measuring how many feet per second a player runs in his fastest one-second window.

In 2018, the metric was updated for hitters/runners to include the top home-to-first times as well as the previously qualified two-base runs, in an attempt to include more useful information and get to a meaningful number more quickly.

Currently, the metric includes "qualified runs" from these two categories:

• Runs of two bases or more on non-homers, excluding runs from second base when an extra-base hit happens.
• Home-to-first runs on "topped" or "weakly hit" balls.

The best of these runs, approximately two-thirds, are averaged for a player's seasonal average.

Any run with a Sprint Speed of at least 30 ft/sec is known as a Bolt.

Why it's useful

Approximately seven full-effort strides can be captured over the course of a one-second window, so Sprint Speed rewards those who can sustain their speed over a longer period of time.

 

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

One of the best defensive plays of the year by Westburg to help ice the game against the Angels.'

 

One of the best defensive catches I've ever seen from an infielder. 

[Moose Milligan]

On 8/23/2023 at 10:33 PM, Frobby said:

Per Kevin Brown, Westburg was clocked at 30.4 ft/sec beating out that throw in the 8th inning tonight.  Statcast has him at 28.9 on the season, good for the 89th percentile.   

@Tony-OH’s scouting report had Westburg at 60 speed.  Fangraphs said 50.  Based on the data we have now, I’d have to say Tony’s grade was conservative, and Fangraphs was a flat miss. 

I’m always surprised when speed grades are off by a lot.  Obviously with other tools, scouts are judging how things will translate at the highest level.  But speed is speed, you can check it with a stopwatch.  Many scouts have been off on Mountcastle, they’ve been off on Westburg, and IMO they’re off on Kjerstad.  I don’t get how that happens with the least subjective of all the tools.  

 

Not every player hauls ass up the line on every opportunity, either.  I wonder how much of that screws with things.

[Sports Guy]

Westburg’s defense has been really impressive.

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Not every player hauls ass up the line on every opportunity, either.  I wonder how much of that screws with things.

Here's what statcast says about their home to 1st number.

Quote

Home To First

Definition

Home to First readings measure the time elapsed from the point of bat-on-ball contact to the moment the batter reaches first base. Statcast has the ability to filter Home to First readings, which can be useful when attempting to discern a hitter's ability to "beat out" a ground ball hit to an infielder. In some scouting circles, a hitter's Home to First time on infield ground balls is sometimes referred to as "dig speed."

Players with the fastest times generally tally the most infield hits. Said players also tend to force defenses into committing errors, as fielders must rush to retire the speedy runner at first base.

As left-handed hitters stand closer to first than right-handed hitters, they are generally represented well on Home to First leaderboards.

In A Call

"He got to first in X seconds," "home to first in X seconds," "he got down the line in X seconds"

In the end, it says it can "filter Home to First readings" but doesn't go into more detail. I think that 4.36 is a little low.

[AdamK]

11 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

One of the best defensive plays of the year by Westburg to help ice the game against the Angels.'

 

FWIW, Mullins was playing fairly deep but I do believe he was prepared to catch that ball if Westburg isn't there. Would've required a nice dive though.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, AdamK said:

FWIW, Mullins was playing fairly deep but I do believe he was prepared to catch that ball if Westburg isn't there. Would've required a nice dive though.

If Mullins could have caught that should have been his ball and he would have called Westburg off. He got a late break and was not going to catch that ball IMO.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If Mullins could have caught that should have been his ball and he would have called Westburg off. He got a late break and was not going to catch that ball IMO.

Agree.  I was kind of shocked how late he was coming in on that ball and had resigned myself to the fact that it was going to fall in.  Westburg has other ideas.  

[Aristotelian]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Agree.  I was kind of shocked how late he was coming in on that ball and had resigned myself to the fact that it was going to fall in.  Westburg has other ideas.  

Yeah it had plenty of hang time and was deep enough for him to catch it. Looked like a good swing that just missed hard contact so he may have broken back at first. I was watching Cedric the whole way, saw he pulled up, then Westburg comes from out of nowhere and catches it.

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Part of it is now that we have sprint speed which gives you the average ft/sec he runs during a sprint is a little different then using the old scouting scale that was devised from sprints to first base with a stop watch. I do stop watch guys at times on real sprints to first to get an idea of speed but I also use the "eye test" on how fast they look when they run around the bases for minor leaguers. I haven't done the analysis but I guess you could probably use statcast sprint speed data and measure it up against the scouting charts used for decades and see if they match up. 

I wish we had the statcast info that we have on the major league players with minor league players but at least now we have AAA statcast game reports. Hopefully MLB will give us more minor league data to work from. 

Objective Tool Grades

Objective Tool Grades

	Tool Is Called	Fastball Velo	Batting Avg	Homers	RHH to 1B	LHH to 1B	60 Yd Run
80	80	97	.320	40+	4.00	3.90	6.3
75		96	.310	35-40	4.05	3.95	6.4
70	Plus Plus	95	.300	30-35	4.10	4.00	6.5
65		94	.290	27-30	4.15	4.05	6.6
60	Plus	93	.280	23-27	4.20	4.10	6.7
55	Above Avg	92	.270	19-22	4.25	4.15	6.8
50	Avg	90-91	.260	15-18	4.30	4.20	6.9-7.0
45	Below Avg	89	.250	12-15	4.35	4.25	7.1
40		88	.240	8-12	4.40	4.30	7.2
35		87	.230	5-8	4.45	4.35	7.3
30		86	.220	3-5	4.50	4.40	7.4

 

According to Statcast, Westburg's avg time to 1B is 4.36 seconds which would give him a 45 scouting grade. 

Here's the definition of sprint speed. The red bolded part is why it more useful then home to 1st times. 

Basically Westburg may be an average to slightly below average runner home to first, but when you expand it out to his running around the bases he's much faster. 

 

Gunnar Henderson is another example of this; I think that guys that take more home run swings like Henderson and Westburg take more time to gather themselves in order to run to first without falling over themselves, so that slows down their home-to-first time.  Trout as well; through his early-mid 20s had 4.24 to 4.27 home-to-first times, but no one in their right minds would call him a 55 runner.

[Rbiggs2525]

I would like really like this team to have Westburg try Left and Right field this offseason. He has the speed and athleticism to make a difference there. He would then ensure being in the lineup 5-6 days a week.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Rbiggs2525

[CallMeBrooksie]

3 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I would like really like this team to have Westburg try Left and Right field this offseason. He has the speed and athleticism to make a difference there. He would then ensure being in the lineup 5-6 days a week.

I'm all for defensive flexibility, but if the O's can't find him enough AB's between 2B and 3B, then they should 100% trade him. No need to stunt his value by taking him off the infield. The O's shouldn't be hungry for impact bats in the corner OF positions. Plus Westburg's bat doesn't play nearly as well as a corner OF.

[Baltimorecuse]

1 hour ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I would like really like this team to have Westburg try Left and Right field this offseason. He has the speed and athleticism to make a difference there. He would then ensure being in the lineup 5-6 days a week.

We're overloaded with infield prospects.  Something has to give.  However, we can think about this after we win the WS.