Ben Clemens of Fangraphs: Orioles-losers at the trade deadline

[Jim'sKid26]

"The Orioles are run by a sharp group of people; you’ll get no objection from me on that score. They’re surely aware of the perils of constantly looking to the future; it’s not a deep secret. But subconsciously, I think they might be struggling to change mental models. Constantly dreaming about what players might become in three years leads to systematic mis-evaluations of how important the present is at any given time. Concentrating value into windows of contention by adding at some deadlines and restocking at others is the way that teams with good process convert their farm systems into titles. The Orioles will figure it out, but I don’t think they’ve gotten the math right just yet."

He has an interesting point, however I don't agree with him. I think mortgaging the future on a starter that may or may not change your chances of a long playoff run is not smart. But this quote does have merit. Especially the bolded part.

2023 Trade Deadline Winners and Losers | FanGraphs Baseball

[clapdiddy]

I think if the O's get to the playoffs and the starting pitching falters, you will see the big move for a pitcher in the off-season.

[FlaO'sFan]

110 losses in 2021 to this year. I think Elias is doing ok with the math.

[EdwinRip]

We also got an F last year on the Jorge Lopez Trade.

[Fan4Life]

12 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

"The Orioles are run by a sharp group of people; you’ll get no objection from me on that score. They’re surely aware of the perils of constantly looking to the future; it’s not a deep secret. But subconsciously, I think they might be struggling to change mental models. Constantly dreaming about what players might become in three years leads to systematic mis-evaluations of how important the present is at any given time. Concentrating value into windows of contention by adding at some deadlines and restocking at others is the way that teams with good process convert their farm systems into titles. The Orioles will figure it out, but I don’t think they’ve gotten the math right just yet."

He has an interesting point, however I don't agree with him. I think mortgaging the future on a starter that may or may not change your chances of a long playoff run is not smart. But this quote does have merit. Especially the bolded part.

2023 Trade Deadline Winners and Losers | FanGraphs Baseball

Just like we were losers in the offseason.. if only we had played well to show them they know squat.

[Hallas]

9 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

"The Orioles are run by a sharp group of people; you’ll get no objection from me on that score. They’re surely aware of the perils of constantly looking to the future; it’s not a deep secret. But subconsciously, I think they might be struggling to change mental models. Constantly dreaming about what players might become in three years leads to systematic mis-evaluations of how important the present is at any given time. Concentrating value into windows of contention by adding at some deadlines and restocking at others is the way that teams with good process convert their farm systems into titles. The Orioles will figure it out, but I don’t think they’ve gotten the math right just yet."

He has an interesting point, however I don't agree with him. I think mortgaging the future on a starter that may or may not change your chances of a long playoff run is not smart. But this quote does have merit. Especially the bolded part.

2023 Trade Deadline Winners and Losers | FanGraphs Baseball

 

I think the idea that trading our 2nd or 3rd best middle-infield prospect is mortgaging our future is kind of silly.  But everyone's entitled to their opinions.

 

In terms of chances, you'd have to go through some serious mental gymnastics to draw the conclusion that Jordan Montgomery in our rotation over Kremer/Irvin/whoever isn't a huge upgrade and increases our chances significantly.

[PeteCanes]

I think Flaherty will be a better pitcher than the HOFers from here to the end of the season 

[interloper]

Meh. 

[deward]

5 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

110 losses in 2021 to this year. I think Elias is doing ok with the math.

To be fair, the 110 losses in 2021 was exactly what Elias wanted. Noting the improvement from the 115 losses in 2018 to today is probably a better measure.

[btdart20]

The BA podcast said the same thing today.  It's a fundamental difference in the expectation of buyers as much as anything.  It's the same yin/yang we debate around here:  Will the success be weighted toward 2023 success or overall success over the next 10 years?  

[Gurgi]

Thing is this writer is not in on the calls between Elias and other teams.  You have no idea what the prospects being talked about were.  

I think teams were correctly trying to fleece the Orioles that is their job.  The Orioles job is not to do something stupid on the first year where our winning window is open.  Remembering all these evaluators had the Orioles not doing good this year again.  Showing some restraint I think is wise.  

[waroriole]

Losers at the deadline. Winners in our hearts. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, PeteCanes said:

I think Flaherty will be a better pitcher than the HOFers from here to the end of the season 

Hot take alert: Jack Flaherty will pitch better the remainder of the season than Dylan Cease.

[Jammer7]

Very interesting. It’s difficult to argue with that article, based on the landscape of what has been done in the past decade or so by other successful teams. This organization underwent a complete overhaul the past five years. They have built this from the ground up. They have a tremendous amount of talent from which to deal. Check, we know this is a rather unique set of circumstances.

Their core, beyond Adley, Gunnar, Bradish and Grayson, is beginning to hit their prime years of arbitration. Who do they extend and keep? Who do they deal this offseason and next? Which prospects do they see as being on their next few playoff teams? Did they hold back at the deadline to make bigger, more important, deals with the longer term in mind in the offseason?

Does picking up only Flaherty and Fujinami say that they believe they they are not really ready yet to be the team they envision in two or three years? Would adding say Verlander or Scherzer (if they wanted to waive their no-trade clause to come to Baltimore) have signaled being all-in for 2023? Would spending those resources have hampered their efforts of becoming what they envision?

I don’t think you can say that they are all-in, no. Are they a loser? I don’t share that opinion, but I can understand where that comes from. I think they are clearly holding back, but being responsible with the growth of the organization and taking necessary steps forward to ensure a longer term extended run. I would be surprised if Mullins, Hays, Santander, Urias and Mountcastle are all still here in 2025. Perhaps all will be elsewhere by then, and I would not be surprised at all.

I also wonder what role added financial liability would add to a potential sale of the team. The criticism they have received is certainly fair, but if I am close to being correct, then I get it. Maybe I am way off here. 

[Daddy-O's]

If it comes down to a choice between the Mike Elias way or the Fangraph way, I'll follow Mike Elias all day long.