Rays series

[Aristotelian]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Why the power dropped is a real question to try and figure out. I think Hyde has done him a disservice with how much he has played him. That’s my best theory on why but not sure if that’s the only reason.

 

He had a base hit in the Cards series on a two-strike defensive swing where he threw the bat at the ball and got solid enough contact to get an opposite field base hit. I think it was Ben who said that is his approach with two strikes and he gives up homers as a result. Seems like he is evolving into a Markakis type of hitter and that may just be who he is. 

Overall, his SLG is just slightly off last year. HR per AB is actually slightly up, and his K rate is down. You are right, doubles are down. Overall his hitting is down, but not far from last year's baseline. His season has been a disappointment in that I'd hoped for him to take another step forward offensively. But if you were expecting him to repeat last year's production, I'd say he's slightly down but within a standard deviation.

The bigger hit to his WAR has been from defense but it's so hard to evaluate that. He does have zero PB. His CS% is low, but they aren't running much on him so his SB allowed is still pretty low. As Frobby mentioned his blocking numbers have been creeping back up. 

As far as Hyde's usage, he is #10 in C innings. That doesn't seem to bad to me. 

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He had a base hit in the Cards series on a two-strike defensive swing where he threw the bat at the ball and got solid enough contact to get an opposite field base hit. I think it was Ben who said that is his approach with two strikes and he gives up homers as a result. Seems like he is evolving into a Markakis type of hitter and that may just be who he is. 

Overall, his SLG is just slightly off last year. HR per AB is actually slightly up, and his K rate is down. You are right, doubles are down. Overall his hitting is down, but not far from last year's baseline. His season has been a disappointment in that I'd hoped for him to take another step forward offensively. But if you were expecting him to repeat last year's production, I'd say he's slightly down but within a standard deviation.

The bigger hit to his WAR has been from defense but it's so hard to evaluate that. He does have zero PB. His CS% is low, but they aren't running much on him so his SB allowed is still pretty low. As Frobby mentioned his blocking numbers have been creeping back up. 

As far as Hyde's usage, he is #10 in C innings. That doesn't seem to bad to me. 

 

But it’s not like he is getting days off. He’s still playing almost every night. That wears on you too.

His offense is down from last year and that is without him actually showing improving from his rookie year, which is something that should be expected. And, btw, Camden Yards has been more favorable to lefties this year than last year.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But it’s not like he is getting days off. He’s still playing almost every night. That wears on you too.

His offense is down from last year and that is without him actually showing improving from his rookie year, which is something that should be expected. And, btw, Camden Yards has been more favorable to lefties this year than last year.

Camden yards is the exact same ballpark! Just because lefties have performed better does not mean there is some causal effect going on. Sometimes there is just noise in these stats.

One thing that may be a little different about Adley, he was an older rookie, so at Age 25 now it's not like we would expect him to keep filling out the way Gunnar or Holliday might. He hit MLB as a physically mature, offensively advanced rookie. 

But it's definitely true he hasn't taken a step forward in any aspect of his game, and that is disappointing if that's what your expectation was (and all of us were probably hoping/expecting some degree of improvement). 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Camden yards is the exact same ballpark! Just because lefties have performed better does not mean there is some causal effect going on. Sometimes there is just noise in these stats.

One thing that may be a little different about Adley, he was an older rookie, so at Age 25 now it's not like we would expect him to keep filling out the way Gunnar or Holliday might. He hit MLB as a physically mature, offensively advanced rookie. 

But it's definitely true he hasn't taken a step forward in any aspect of his game, and that is disappointing if that's what your expectation was (and all of us were probably hoping/expecting some degree of improvement). 

But parks do play differently from year to year and last year, lefties struggled moreso in Camden Yards than they do this year. So, he has that on his side of things in terms of why he should be hitting better than last year, since so many of his at bats are from that side of the plate.

 

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But parks do play differently from year to year and last year, lefties struggled moreso in Camden Yards than they do this year. So, he has that on his side of things in terms of why he should be hitting better than last year, since so many of his at bats are from that side of the plate.

 

A park is an inanimate object. What theoretical causal mechanism could cause it to "play" differently from year to year, and how do we control for it statistically to rule out noise and other causes? 

Also, Adley is a switch hitter, although the majority of his AB's are of course LH.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

A park is an inanimate object. What theoretical causal mechanism could cause it to "play" differently from year to year, and how do we control for it statistically to rule out noise and other causes? 

Also, Adley is a switch hitter, although the majority of his AB's are of course LH.

Well when they put up the Hilton hotel, it changed wind patterns and had an effect. Weather can be one. Sometimes it’s just you have better hitters from that side of the plate. But a lot of park effects do vary from year to year.

You don’t usually see drastic changes but you will see subtle ones.

Either way, the actual point is that last year the park played harder  for lefties than it is this year. If it was playing even harder than last year, you could justify a little more the drop in production…but it’s not.

[foxfield]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But parks do play differently from year to year and last year, lefties struggled moreso in Camden Yards than they do this year. So, he has that on his side of things in terms of why he should be hitting better than last year, since so many of his at bats are from that side of the plate.

 

I would expect the shift being available in 2022 and not in 2023 results in all parks being slightly better for left handers in 2023.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, foxfield said:

I would expect the shift being available in 2022 and not in 2023 results in all parks being slightly better for left handers in 2023.

Yep..that’s a good point.

[mrbig1]

Is there any chance the O's were looking past the Cardinals series?  There focus has to be on the Rays. If our lineup remains dormant. It's going to be over quick.

[Malike]

17 minutes ago, mrbig1 said:

Is there any chance the O's were looking past the Cardinals series?  There focus has to be on the Rays. If our lineup remains dormant. It's going to be over quick.

There is no chance they were looking past the Cardinals. The Cards just happened to be on a nice roll and won every series on this road trip against ATL, CIN, BAL. It happens.

[Malike]

I find it interesting that all the talking heads on MLB radio are saying this is a much more important series for Baltimore than it is for Tampa. I guess with the inexperience this team has in trying to win a division it would make some sense. We'll see what they are made of, I didn't even think they'd be a playoff team this year so it's all house money for me.

[mrbig1]

One thing about the Rays. No lead is safe. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, mrbig1 said:

One thing about the Rays. No lead is safe. 

No worries, because we have the best closer in the … never mind.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

I find it interesting that all the talking heads on MLB radio are saying this is a much more important series for Baltimore than it is for Tampa. I guess with the inexperience this team has in trying to win a division it would make some sense. We'll see what they are made of, I didn't even think they'd be a playoff team this year so it's all house money for me.

Meh.  It’s pretty damned important for both teams in my book.  

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

I find it interesting that all the talking heads on MLB radio are saying this is a much more important series for Baltimore than it is for Tampa. I guess with the inexperience this team has in trying to win a division it would make some sense. We'll see what they are made of, I didn't even think they'd be a playoff team this year so it's all house money for me.

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Meh.  It’s pretty damned important for both teams in my book.  

You could say that there's more pressure on the Orioles as the team not wanting to blow their lead, and the team who hasn't been to the postseason in seven years. 

But mathematically, each game is certainly more important for the Rays, as they need to win 3/4 or better to improve their odds. The O's can improve their odds with a split.