Heston Kjerstad 2023

[MCO'sFan]

HK's hands are crazy quick. He's just a different hitter than Cowser. I'm not saying that Cowser won't hit but the separator for me are the hands. I was in the middle of our summer season when Cowswer got most of his ABs but from what I did see Cowser was stuck between the fastball and offspeed pitches and the hands really allow you to wait and still catch up to the fastball. 

[Bemorewins]

45 minutes ago, deward said:

I haven't seen anything to indicate that he's not at least as capable as Santander and O'Hearn in RF. He's not slow.

If we are looking at next year, I don't see a place for all 3 to thrive with playing time on the roster next season especially with Mountcastle here. Kjerstad will definitely be on the team and I would hate to lose Santander (though I know he will be an FA at the end of 24'). It may be a toss up between the other two?

[SouthRider]

Heston reminds me of a young Boog Powell. 

[Just Regular]

I'd mentioned it was interesting seeing him side by side with other LH Bats Gunnar, Tucker, Hicks on the same night, but across the plate, there's also a level where seeing the first handful of PA it hits me like Mountcastle on the correct side for OPACY, maybe with the strings tuned just a little bit tighter.

[deward]

42 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If we are looking at next year, I don't see a place for all 3 to thrive with playing time on the roster next season especially with Mountcastle here. Kjerstad will definitely be on the team and I would hate to lose Santander (though I know he will be an FA at the end of 24'). It may be a toss up between the other two?

I don't know how O'Hearn fits into the long-term plan; he wasn't really supposed to be here contributing at this level. Elias definitely has a puzzle to try and put together for next year.

[Jim'sKid26]

36 minutes ago, SouthRider said:

Heston reminds me of a young Boog Powell. 

That is a very interesting comp. If I might be so bold, what specifically do you see that spurs that comparison? Honest question.

[Just Regular]

13 minutes ago, deward said:

I don't know how O'Hearn fits into the long-term plan; he wasn't really supposed to be here contributing at this level. Elias definitely has a puzzle to try and put together for next year.

I thought whoever it was that described O'Hearn as having the basic Lowenstein season got it right, and I'd add to that that I think these next few weeks a very green Kjerstad that holds his own gives results approximately like "another '23 Ryan O'Hearn" lengthening the lineup.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Kjerstad reminds me of a lefty Mountcastle at the plate. The combination of hit tool with the big swing and big power is special, and he’s aggressive swinging at strikes in the zone. Like Mountcastle, how good he becomes depends on how how capable he is of laying off balls out of the zone. He already has some advantage in not needing to deal with RHP sliders to the same extent. 

[Malike]

15 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Kjerstad reminds me of a lefty Mountcastle at the plate. The combination of hit tool with the big swing and big power is special, and he’s aggressive swinging at strikes in the zone. Like Mountcastle, how good he becomes depends on how how capable he is of laying off balls out of the zone. He already has some advantage in not needing to deal with RHP sliders to the same extent. 

I don't think it's a horrible comp, but Kjerstad has a much more discerning eye at the plate than Mounty. He will strike out, but his walk rate is far better.

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

I don't think it's a horrible comp, but Kjerstad has a much more discerning eye at the plate than Mounty. He will strike out, but his walk rate is far better.

Mountcastle has a career 7.3% BB%, 7.8% this year. Kjerstad had a high walk rate in 100 PA of A ball last year, but was 8.6% in A+, 7.3% in AA and 8.0% in AAA. Kjerstad probably (hopefully) does have a better batting eye, but I’m not expecting him to walk much. He’s aggressive swinging at strikes early in the count and is going to put a lot of balls in play. He’ll probably have a similar BB rate to Mountcastle but hopefully a better K rate.
 
Kjerstad is not a patient hitter in the same mold as Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Holliday. His K/BB rates will depend on where his MLB chase and whiff rates land ultimately, but likely they will be averagish and what is going to carry his offensive profile is his contact quality, like Mountcastle, O’Hearn, Hays, Santander. 

Maybe 2023 Ryan O’Hearn is a better comp that Mountcastle, but with better contact rates. 

[Brooks The Great]

28 minutes ago, Malike said:

I don't think it's a horrible comp, but Kjerstad has a much more discerning eye at the plate than Mounty. He will strike out, but his walk rate is far better.

Kjerstad's raw power will also play better in Oriole Park. So Kjerstad has more effective power than Mountcastle does. 

The right move this offseason will be to trade Mountcastle - his heater after returning from vertigo really salvaged his value. However, I don't have much hope that Elias will trade him at all during the 2023 offseason or in 2024.

One of my few criticisms of Mike Elias is his inability to quickly move on from veterans to give playing time to more talented prospects. Elias holds on to veteran assets on the major league roster for far too long and Hyde gives those players too much playing time. Odor, Frazier, Voth, Mateo, Hicks, Akin. Urias is slowly getting to that point, and with Kjerstad already contributing at the major league level and Coby Mayo ready for the majors next season, Mountcastle will be blocking too many players as well.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Brooks The Great

[dystopia]

13 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Kjerstad's raw power will also play better in Oriole Park. So Kjerstad has more effective power than Mountcastle does. 

The right move this offseason will be to trade Mountcastle - his heater after returning from vertigo really salvaged his value. However, I don't have much hope that Elias will trade him at all during the 2023 offseason or in 2024.

One of my few criticisms of Mike Elias is his inability to quickly move on from veterans to give playing time to more talented prospects. Elias holds on to veteran assets on the major league roster for far too long and Hyde gives those players too much playing time. Odor, Frazier, Voth, Mateo, Hicks, Akin. Urias is slowly getting to that point, and with Kjerstad already contributing at the major league level and Coby Mayo ready for the majors next season, Mountcastle will be blocking too many players as well.

Mountcastle is 26, not 33. 

[btdart20]

13 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

The right move this offseason will be to trade Mountcastle - his heater after returning from vertigo really salvaged his value.

I agree that Mounty has reestablished his market value.  And trading him this offseason (high) makes much more sense than it would have last offseason (low).  But I think the game plan for roster construction is built around matchups.  How Mounty (and O'Hearn and Hicks) have been used has helped them succeed more than if they were trotted out against their kryptonite.  In other words, I don't think Mountcastle is traded until there's an established RHH replacement on the team.  Despite Walltimore, we still need hitters against LHP.  It doesn't have to necessarily be a 1B, so a Mayo, Westburg, Ortiz or some X factor could fit the bill.  

[Otter]

3 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

I've have had a weird feeling since watching Kjerstad earlier in the year that he just might become a truly fearsome hitter, like a Todd Helton type who could just roll out of bed and hit a double (the ol' "wake and rake").

Great comp.  Now that you mentioned Helton; he does remind me of him both in appearance and swing....and hopefully in his career...

[Malike]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Mountcastle has a career 7.3% BB%, 7.8% this year. Kjerstad had a high walk rate in 100 PA of A ball last year, but was 8.6% in A+, 7.3% in AA and 8.0% in AAA. Kjerstad probably (hopefully) does have a better batting eye, but I’m not expecting him to walk much. He’s aggressive swinging at strikes early in the count and is going to put a lot of balls in play. He’ll probably have a similar BB rate to Mountcastle but hopefully a better K rate.
 
Kjerstad is not a patient hitter in the same mold as Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Holliday. His K/BB rates will depend on where his MLB chase and whiff rates land ultimately, but likely they will be averagish and what is going to carry his offensive profile is his contact quality, like Mountcastle, O’Hearn, Hays, Santander. 

Maybe 2023 Ryan O’Hearn is a better comp that Mountcastle, but with better contact rates. 

The sample is obviously much smaller for Kjerstad but his K/BB rate is superior to Mountcastle's, I was speaking more to that than strictly walk rate and didn't convey that properly. Mountcastle had 4:1 K/BB and Kjerstad is closer to 2:1.