Playoff Infield Alignment (Anyone Worried About Urias?)

[Aristotelian]

This may be an overreaction to his egregious error that nearly cost us a big game in the division race, but combining his lack of power this year with some big errors lately as well as overall down defense, I am starting to question whether Urias should be in our usual starting lineup heading into the playoffs. I had thought since the Westburg callup our best nine against both LHP and RHP would be Gunnar SS, Urias 3B, Westburg 2B. His bat is about even with Frazier vs RHP, and he has historically been a better defender at 3B than Frazier has been at 2B. But lately his defense seems to has really dropped off, and while he is still getting on base his HR dropoff is fairly alarming. Is Urias playing his way out of the lineup? Has Frazier played his way back in at least vs RHP? Is there an optimal alignment, or will Hyde continue to mix and match? 

If Urias had traditional splits the obvious answer would be to platoon them, but in fact he has a slight reverse split. We don't get much advantage playing Urias so much as he helps shelter Frazier from LHP. 

 

The data points:

OAA down to -6, second worst on the team (Was +6 last year). (Fangraphs DEF has his down from 8.6 to -3.3).

His six errors are actually less than his eight errors last year. Fielding % is virtually identical.

4 HR, down from 16 last year (in only 10 fewer games). 

BA and OBP are slightly up, OPS is slightly down (99 OPS+).

1.8 WAR, down from 3.6 WAR in 2022. (fWAR has him down from 2.7 to 1.0). 

Frazier is at 1.7 WAR, 98 OPS+.

[Moose Milligan]

Urias is fine.  In regards to the error last night, yes his throw was terrible and there's no excuse for it but a good first baseman should have been able to pick that, no problem.  Both statements can be true.

I do believe the role that Urias plays on this team revolves around his defensive flexibility.  He can go on an occasional tear but he's really here because he can play all the infield positions.  

Headed into the playoffs infield depth and defense is the least of my worries.  We'll only go as far as the pitching takes us.

[Fiver6565]

Its highly possible Urias doesn't even get a single start in the playoffs.  I mean he'll probably get one or two depending on how long we're in, but the possibility of zero is real.  And he'll be quite good if/when he does start.  He's made many sterling plays in the field this year.  There is literally nothing to worry about here.

[Aristotelian]

 

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Urias is fine.  In regards to the error last night, yes his throw was terrible and there's no excuse for it but a good first baseman should have been able to pick that, no problem.  Both statements can be true.

I do believe the role that Urias plays on this team revolves around his defensive flexibility.  He can go on an occasional tear but he's really here because he can play all the infield positions.  

Headed into the playoffs infield depth and defense is the least of my worries.  We'll only go as far as the pitching takes us.

I agree, Urias is "fine". Frazier is probably also fine. Both are slightly above replacement level and consistent producers. As is Westburg, for that matter. But is there any way to get better than "fine" out of these guys? Is Ramon still the best option vs RHP? With Urias and Frazier both under .700 vs LHP, should we consider Mateo (.750 vs LHP and .294/.723 overall in Sept)? I think whoever we put out there will be solid but I am confused as to the current pecking order.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

 

I agree, Urias is "fine". Frazier is probably also fine. Both are slightly above replacement level and consistent producers. As is Westburg, for that matter. But is there any way to get better than "fine" out of these guys? Is Ramon still the best option vs RHP? With Urias and Frazier both under .700 vs LHP, should we consider Mateo (.750 vs LHP and .294/.723 overall in Sept)? I think whoever we put out there will be solid but I am confused as to the current pecking order.

I'm not worried about a pecking order.

We've finally got a team with depth.  We've got guys that can start a game or can come in the late innings and not feel bad about them being on the field.  No more Pat Valaika types.  In regards to the "pecking order" I don't care and I don't know if there really is one.  It depends on who's on the mound, the matchup numbers, etc, although whatever the pecking order is, Mateo is the last man on the totem pole.  But he's the first guy off the bench to pinch run in a playoff game, that's fine.  The rest, I am not worried about.  

[Aristotelian]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not worried about a pecking order.

We've finally got a team with depth.  We've got guys that can start a game or can come in the late innings and not feel bad about them being on the field.  No more Pat Valaika types.  In regards to the "pecking order" I don't care and I don't know if there really is one.  It depends on who's on the mound, the matchup numbers, etc, although whatever the pecking order is, Mateo is the last man on the totem pole.  But he's the first guy off the bench to pinch run in a playoff game, that's fine.  The rest, I am not worried about.  

So use the Sigbot to choose between Urias and Frazier? I think I agree and I'm okay with that, but 1-2 months ago I would have said we should be starting Ramon every day. 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

So use the Sigbot to choose between Urias and Frazier? I think I agree and I'm okay with that, but 1-2 months ago I would have said we should be starting Ramon every day. 

Sigbot's fine.

[Just Regular]

As the Crawford Boxes are kind of the anti-Walltimore, I wonder if Urias is a priority play tonight and tomorrow.

I still don't know for October lineups who the last starting infielder is.     I assume Frazier and Urias have an edge on Mateo.     Frazier can make contact off Tampa relievers with Stuff+ of infinity, but Urias seems more likely to pop a cheap HR or two the Houston ballpark is famous for.

Recently I saw a graphic its been about 10 years since a World Series champion ever didn't start the same player every game at SS, and if Gunnar is doing that, Westburg's 2B/3B flex I guess makes Frazier/Urias a platoon.     The combo of RH pitchers and Minute Maid an interesting cross pressure for the Sigbot to analyze.

[AlbNYfan]

Urias's D should be fine.....but, you have to have some concern. The throw last night was poor, but O'Hearn should have had it. I actually have more concern with O'Hearn at first than Urias at 3rd. O'Hearn just doesn't look comfortable there yet. His stretches just appear awkward. I like Westburg at 2nd. I'm sure he can handle routine plays at third. I'm not sure he has the arm.

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Urias is fine.  In regards to the error last night, yes his throw was terrible and there's no excuse for it but a good first baseman should have been able to pick that, no problem.  Both statements can be true.

I agree, but that was such an easy throw to make that I think the errant throw took O’Hearn completely by surprise.  In other words, many times a 1B can anticipate that a throw is going to be difficult and that the infielder may bounce it, and be prepared when it happens.   I’m sure it never occurred to O’Hearn that Urias would bounce that.  He fielded the ball cleanly about five feet  in front of the infield dirt, was in proper throwing position, and there was no need to hurry the throw.  And, from such close range, there’s less time to react than on a longer throw.  I still think O’Hearn scoops that most of the time, but I can understand why he didn’t.  

Generally, that’s about the third surprisingly bad error Urias has made in recent weeks.  I’m not overly concerned.   Brooks once made three errors in the same game.   Hardy too, I believe.  Stuff happens.  
 

[Jim'sKid26]

Urias is the type of player that wins a WS MVP a la Dempsey. 

[btdart20]

27 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Recently I saw a graphic its been about 10 years since a World Series champion ever didn't start the same player every game at SS, and if Gunnar is doing that, Westburg's 2B/3B flex I guess makes Frazier/Urias a platoon.     The combo of RH pitchers and Minute Maid an interesting cross pressure for the Sigbot to analyze.

Interesting.  Could we play a different player at every position in the playoffs at some point?  Has that ever happened?  That seems pretty unlikely.  We have the personnel (and track record) to break the mold if the Sigbot agrees.

[Aristotelian]

19 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Urias is the type of player that wins a WS MVP a la Dempsey. 

Ha, I love it. Could certainly happen. He could also disappear for a couple weeks.