Another very good article from Brit

[now]

The baffling part of all this is how to upgrade the bullpen. People speak of buying reliable pieces but is that possible? For every Josh Hader or Andrew Miller there are a dozen wildcard reclamation projects like Shawn Armstrong, Evan Phillips, Cionel Perez or Yennier Cano. On the flip side, trying to buy known quantities, the Orioles have a tainted history of multimillion-dollar busts like the parade of rent-a-clowns in the dark years (caution, PTSD alert): Norm Charlton, Terry Mathews, Mike Timlin, Ricky Bones, Mike Trombley, Tim Worrell, Mark Worrell, Mike DeJean, Steve Reed, LaTroy Hawkins, Danys Baez... 

At least I trust the current brain trust to do better at the DIY game and forego the midrange auction block. So from where we are, picking the right top-shelf closer is the more sensible move... even for a multiyear deal to complement Bautista.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, now said:

The baffling part of all this is how to upgrade the bullpen. People speak of buying reliable pieces but is that possible? For every Josh Hader or Andrew Miller there are a dozen wildcard reclamation projects like Shawn Armstrong, Evan Phillips, Cionel Perez or Yennier Cano. On the flip side, trying to buy known quantities, the Orioles have a tainted history of multimillion-dollar busts like the parade of rent-a-clowns in the dark years (caution, PTSD alert): Norm Charlton, Terry Mathews, Mike Timlin, Ricky Bones, Mike Trombley, Tim Worrell, Mark Worrell, Mike DeJean, Steve Reed, LaTroy Hawkins, Danys Baez... 

At least I trust the current brain trust to do better at the DIY game and forego the midrange auction block. So from where we are, picking the right top-shelf closer is the more sensible move... even for a multiyear deal to complement Bautista.

It is tough but I think you have to look for certain traits. Throw strikes, miss bats, good command, get Ks and limit homers.

 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, 24fps said:

That money will be spent on raises through arbitration. The O’s payroll will have to increase next season to acquire any free agents.  I think it will but will it be enough to make a difference is the question.  

JA said that the payroll will grow with the attendance.  The attendance is growing.  

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

JA said that the payroll will grow with the attendance.  The attendance is growing.  

I would imagine ticket-related revenue alone is up $20 mm+ over last year, with the 550 k bump in regular season attendance plus a share of the gate for these ALDS games.   And that doesn’t include the Orioles’ share of food concession sales and in-stadium clothing and merchandise sales (which you know are way up due to all the AL East Champs and playoff paraphernalia, plus the City Connect jerseys and hats).  There’s plenty of room for a significant payroll increase.  Frankly, there was plenty of room even before all that happened.  

[AnythingO's]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

JA said that the payroll will grow with the attendance.  The attendance is growing.  

That you would choose to trust anything JA says is amazing but lets do the math. Attendance rose 7,374 from 2021 to 2022. Revenue rose from $251 M to $264 M and none of that money went into increased salaries. It went into JA's vault. Attendance rose another 6,368 this season so by the prior math another $11.2 M in revenue. Putting past actions aside, assuming ME gets that to spend, what kind of pitching upgrade does that bring, another Gibson if you are lucky.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think as a fan, the best way to go into the offseason is to not expect any dramatic moves.  I’d rather be shocked and surprised if something big happens than be shaking my head in disappointment if nothing big happens.  It’s just better for my psyche not to be coveting the top players and sit there watching other teams gobble them up, crossing names off the list and just getting more and more disappointed.  

That’s my natural inclination anyway, and at this point I feel like Elias has earned the benefit of the doubt.   He’s got a really interesting, multi-dimensional set of decisions to make this winter and there’s dozens of directions he could go.  I’m just going to sit on the sidelines and watch, and not pre-judge anything he does or should do.   
 

Well it's kind of hard not to expect any dramatic moves when you're reading @Sports Guy's posts every day about how they're at the height of stupidity if they don't sign this guy or trade for that guy.  But I agree, tempered expectations are best.

I feel that Elias has earned the benefit of the doubt as well, but only to a certain point.  It's nice to hoard prospects and everything but at some point something's gotta give...some of these guys are going to be needed to be traded to upgrade areas of need.  Or what?  Eventually start losing guys to the Rule 5?  No way.

As we've discussed, I can easily see him mostly standing pat this offseason and not doing anything major but at the deadline next year if we're in contention again?  Can't let that go by, especially with the Flaherty lesson learned this year.

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

JA said that the payroll will grow with the attendance.  The attendance is growing.  

He’s a proven liar. Ignore anything  he says.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

I feel that Elias has earned the benefit of the doubt as well, but only to a certain point.  It's nice to hoard prospects and everything but at some point something's gotta give...some of these guys are going to be needed to be traded to upgrade areas of need.  Or what?  Eventually start losing guys to the Rule 5?  No way.

As we've discussed, I can easily see him mostly standing pat this offseason and not doing anything major but at the deadline next year if we're in contention again?  Can't let that go by, especially with the Flaherty lesson learned this year.

I haven’t thought about Rule 5 much, but is there anyone important at risk?   It’s the 2020 college guys and 2019 high school guys who are exposed for the first time.  So, we’re talking about Hudson Haskin, Brandon Young, T.T. Bowen and Anthony Servideo, and that’s about it.  Not losing any sleep there.

As to the Flaherty thing, it seemed like a solid upgrade at the time, it just didn’t work out for whatever reason.  I agree it would be better to get a bigger upgrade next time out.  

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I haven’t thought about Rule 5 much, but is there anyone important at risk?   It’s the 2020 college guys and 2019 high school guys who are exposed for the first time.  So, we’re talking about Hudson Haskin, Brandon Young, T.T. Bowen and Anthony Servideo, and that’s about it.  Not losing any sleep there.

As to the Flaherty thing, it seemed like a solid upgrade at the time, it just didn’t work out for whatever reason.  I agree it would be better to get a bigger upgrade next time out.  

No, I didn't mean this year, I meant in future years coming up.  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I haven’t thought about Rule 5 much, but is there anyone important at risk?   It’s the 2020 college guys and 2019 high school guys who are exposed for the first time.  So, we’re talking about Hudson Haskin, Brandon Young, T.T. Bowen and Anthony Servideo, and that’s about it.  Not losing any sleep there.

As to the Flaherty thing, it seemed like a solid upgrade at the time, it just didn’t work out for whatever reason.  I agree it would be better to get a bigger upgrade next time out.  

You can’t keep hoarding guys. Guys get hurt, they start to get exposed, etc…

How many times have we talked about how this top prospect or that top prospect is definitely not available and it’s a pipe dream to think they would and 3 years later they are on the waiver wire because they eventually get exposed and don’t have value.

I don’t get why people are seemingly ok with allowing this to happen. I don’t get why people are seemingly hesitant to improve this team. It’s not a 100 win team, especially without Felix.

Look at this postseason roster.  There are names on this roster that we would have seen on our bad teams and yet we are relying on them right now.

People need to stop being so scared at success and feel that you can’t or shouldn’t improve. The best teams are always trying to improve, no matter what the previous year brought you.  We have a lot of talent on this team but there are still going to be growing pains for a little while. You need to bring in some more established, high end talent. The Orioles are the envy of the league right now.

Tons of young talent, a plethora of resources, a great park and fan base that will support this team. And yet we fans that are happy to basically bring back the same team, sprinkle in our young talent and just assume everything will be great.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

That you would choose to trust anything JA says is amazing but let’s do the math. Attendance rose 7,374 from 2021 to 2022. Revenue rose from $251 M to $264 M and none of that money went into increased salaries. It went into JA's vault.

Per BB-ref, the Orioles’ payroll was up by $34 mm in 2023, from $48 mm to $82 mm.   Per Cot’s, it was up $17 mm (opening day payroll) or $10 mm (competitive balance payroll).   Whichever number you pick, payroll did increase significantly in 2023, though still low compared to most teams and leaving plenty of profit as well.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I don’t get why people are seemingly ok with allowing this to happen. I don’t get why people are seemingly hesitant to improve this team. It’s not a 100 win team, especially without Felix.

* * *

Tons of young talent, a plethora of resources, a great park and fan base that will support this team. And yet we fans that are happy to basically bring back the same team, sprinkle in our young talent and just assume everything will be great.

 

Holy straw man!   I haven’t seen a single person say the Orioles shouldn’t try to improve their team.  

Meanwhile, the Orioles improved by 32 games in 2022 and 17 games in 2023.   So it’s fair to assume Elias knows a thing or two about how to improve the team.  

He’s got a ton of options.   Sign free agents, trade veterans, trade prospects, let prospects come up and improve organically.  That’s all on the table and there are dozens if not hundreds of combinations of those four paths to improvement that he could employ.   

 

[AnythingO's]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Per BB-ref, the Orioles’ payroll was up by $34 mm in 2023, from $48 mm to $82 mm.   Per Cot’s, it was up $17 mm (opening day payroll) or $10 mm (competitive balance payroll).   Whichever number you pick, payroll did increase significantly in 2023, though still low compared to most teams and leaving plenty of profit as well.

The variability in quoted Payroll numbers is why I used Salaries which were flat from 2021 to 2022. The Payroll figures are generally about $15-$20 M over Salaries but in 2019 and 2022 they were closer to $40 M higher. I have no explanation for those years. The point I was trying (failing) to make was that the Revenue increase alone is not going to buy that TOR pitcher. JA has made about $150 M combined these last 2 years and probably a similar amount ($60-$80 M) this year. I think they can afford Salaries of $100 M but that has to come out of JA's profits but I really don't believe he will do tht. 

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

That you would choose to trust anything JA says is amazing but lets do the math. Attendance rose 7,374 from 2021 to 2022. Revenue rose from $251 M to $264 M and none of that money went into increased salaries. It went into JA's vault. Attendance rose another 6,368 this season so by the prior math another $11.2 M in revenue. Putting past actions aside, assuming ME gets that to spend, what kind of pitching upgrade does that bring, another Gibson if you are lucky.

A closer that Holt thinks can replace Bautista for one year.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s a proven liar. Ignore anything  he says.

JA may say some things that are foolish but I think basically he has let Elias run the Baseball Operation without much interference.  He has spent of minor league coaches, analytic department, minor league facilities, minor league players in the draft and international.  That was Elias' plan when he was hired and JA has supported that.

Edited October 10, 2023 by wildcard