Infield alignment

[Frobby]

21 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep.

This was always inevitable imo.

 

I personally feel, and Hyde (or was it Elias?) has said as much, that Mateo’s defense suffered when he stopped playing on an everyday basis.  Some guys need consistent game-speed reps to stay sharp, while other guys don’t.  

One of the really impressive things about Gunnar was how he could toggle between SS and 3B and it wouldn’t affect him much.  Of course, he was doing that going through the minors as well.  
 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There seems to an assumption that because Holliday is 1:1 he is ready to play 2B in the majors at a high level.   That isn't necessarily true.   He  has played 25 games in the minors at 2B and he did not play 2B at the level we saw from Westburg in the majors.

I think there is a good chance that Westburg begins the season playing 2B for the O's.   Holliday begins the season playing   2B for Norfolk.   

Holliday may be ready to take over 2B sometime early in the 2024 season but I don't think he is there yet.

I doubt that Holliday played 2B at the level that Westburg did but how do you know?

[The Goob]

I would hope that by opening day some of this is settled via trades.  One thing that is striking to me (and it is not a one year fluke) is that the team that out homers their opponent in the postseason this year is 17-2.  While we need to play well in the regular season I would want to build a team that has the best chance to be successful in the postseason.  In Camden I think that means an emphasis on power and preferably left handed power and pitching that limits homers.  I think we have a good start on the pitching with Grayson and Bradish.  Bradish was especailly good giving up 0.7 HR/9.  Third in all of baseball.  Build a pen that limits homers, add one more starter that fits this profile and I would feel good about the staff.

With this goal in mind the locks to me for position players would be Henderson 3B, Holliday SS, Mayo 1B/DH, Santander RF/DH, Kjerstad RF, Rautschman C, Mullins CF

That leaves Westburg and Ortiz for 2B, Hays and Cowser for LF, O'Hearn and Mountcastle for 1B/DH.  I would prefer Westburg, Cowser and O'Hearn and would look to trade Hays, Mountcastle and Ortiz.

The lineup could look like this:

Mullins - CF

Holliday - SS

Rautschman - C

Henderson - 3B

Santander - DH

Mayo - 1B

Kjerstad - RF

Cowser - LF

Westburg - 2B

Bench - McCann, O'Hearn, Urias, 5th Outfielder

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by The Goob

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I personally feel, and Hyde (or was it Elias?) has said as much, that Mateo’s defense suffered when he stopped playing on an everyday basis.  Some guys need consistent game-speed reps to stay sharp, while other guys don’t.  

One of the really impressive things about Gunnar was how he could toggle between SS and 3B and it wouldn’t affect him much.  Of course, he was doing that going through the minors as well.  
 

But when he was playing consistently, especially early in the season, the defense wasn’t as sharp.

[CaptainRedbeard]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You aren’t playing him enough in this scenario though.

People (not saying you persay) have to get out of the mindset that the only way we get value out of a young player/prospect is by playing them.

Westburg could be the main piece (or one of the main pieces) to obtain a pitcher that gives us 30+ starts or another position player that could be more impactful.

That is more important than a guy who plays 80-100 games. 
 

There is no reason, unless every team in the sport just doesn’t value them, where a scenario should play out where we have one of Ortiz/Westburg is starting and the other one is playing occasionally. That’s too much talent and too much value that you aren’t getting enough out of. 
 

Westburg is an IFer and he’s a very good one. There is no need to make him something he’s not. I’m not even saying he can’t play the OF. I’m sure he could but for this team and the construction of this team coming up, we don’t need him out there. Sure, he could spell guys every once in a while. I can see that but why? Play him everyday at his best position or trade him.

I agree with you on all of this, I just don’t think the MLB is a fully efficient trade market. There’s an inherent asymmetry where teams have invested a lot in the development of their own players and have a lot of information about them, and far less about those on other teams. Those barriers are coming down a bit with the continued proliferation of data, but at the same time the additional wildcard and very weak central divisions has the vast majority of the league believing they are prospective contenders. It’s a very weak market for infielders so the Orioles’ guys should be in demand, but the only thing the Orioles really need is high quality starting pitching and that is the hardest asset to trade for.

For that reason, if they don’t achieve the ideal scenario of a trade where the Orioles think they are getting appropriate return value, I think we could see the Orioles hang onto all of Westburg, Ortiz and Mayo until all 3 have gotten MLB trials and they determine whether more than one of them deserve to be full time players at 2B/SS/3B. To make that happen Westburg may play some out of position.

(I’m taking Norby out of that equation because I think his future with the team gets resolved this offseason one way or another, given how much AAA time he has. Either he’s going to get traded, they are going to make space for him on the MLB roster, or they decide the league views him as a fringy prospect that they’re fine keeping in AAA as a depth guy.)

[Sports Guy]

I think they also could use a MOO bat.

And I think there is enough pitching out there amongst teams that have depth and a need for offense that a deal can get done.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think they also could use a MOO bat.

And I think there is enough pitching out there amongst teams that have depth and a need for offense that a deal can get done.

 

Hopefully. And I agree they could use the bat as well, but those are even more sparse. Using Fangraphs’ depth charts with half Steamer/ZIPS, there are 25 hitters projected for a 125 or better wRC+ (Ohtani and Robert not currently on the page given injury and these are their weird postseason depth charts). 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rfangraphsdc&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc

Ohtani and Soto (if even available) will be out of the Orioles’ price range, and outside Robert nearly all are already on contending teams. Guerrero and Alonso are potentially available, but are right handed, have no defensive value and due a lot of money in their remaining arbitration. Maybe the Phillies will be willing to move Schwarber, but unlikely, an even then he’ll be an expensive 31 year old DH. 

Mountcastle and Santander are projected for 116/115 wRC+. Bringing in somebody else between that and a projected 125 wRC+ is taking away ABs from either them or Cowser/Kjerstad, which feels like a sideways move at best.

They could go for a 3-5 WAR player that gets there through both the bat and glove together, but I think that’s still really just Robert who is potentially available.  

[Sports Guy]

I don’t care if the bat is right handed. That is over blown.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Just Regular]

The absence of the 140 OPS+ type Bat is some of why I think there should be a lean toward abundant early 2024 reps for all of Cowser, Kjerstad and Mayo.

You know Ramon Urias and Aaron Hicks are never going to be that guy.

Holliday is a different cat for me.     There's the triangulation for a '25 Rookie of the Year, and it seems to me like his skillset is such that more man strength would improve his odds.     Broadly speaking, the contact skills seem generally present, but is there enough smashing to beat Evan Carter?     You know with a good degree of likelihood the smash factor will grow as he finishes filling out.      In his presser, I noted Elias was specific on Holliday and being excited "to see what he looks like" in Sarasota.

April 2024 is a soft schedule.    Its interesting game theory if on May 15 they are running good like 26-14 and Holliday is hitting for okay not great SLG.

Westburg SLG v. Holliday SLG could be an interesting indicator who holds 2B as the year goes along.

[spiritof66]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t care if the bat is right handed. That is over blown.

I don't think it's overblown in the sense that a power hitter whose SLG comes largely from HRs and doubles to LF that would have been caught at Camden Yards is not going to be a good fit, especially if he's a left fielder who doesn't have the arm to play RF or the speed to play LF at home. 

[webbrick2010]

2 hours ago, The Goob said:

I would hope that by opening day some of this is settled via trades.  One thing that is striking to me (and it is not a one year fluke) is that the team that out homers their opponent in the postseason this year is 17-2.  While we need to play well in the regular season I would want to build a team that has the best chance to be successful in the postseason.  In Camden I think that means an emphasis on power and preferably left handed power and pitching that limits homers.  I think we have a good start on the pitching with Grayson and Bradish.  Bradish was especailly good giving up 0.7 HR/9.  Third in all of baseball.  Build a pen that limits homers, add one more starter that fits this profile and I would feel good about the staff.

With this goal in mind the locks to me for position players would be Henderson 3B, Holliday SS, Mayo 1B/DH, Santander RF/DH, Kjerstad RF, Rautschman C, Mullins CF

That leaves Westburg and Ortiz for 2B, Hays and Cowser for LF, O'Hearn and Mountcastle for 1B/DH.  I would prefer Westburg, Cowser and O'Hearn and would look to trade Hays, Mountcastle and Ortiz.

The lineup could look like this:

Mullins - CF

Holliday - SS

Rautschman - C

Henderson - 3B

Santander - DH

Mayo - 1B

Kjerstad - RF

Cowser - LF

Westburg - 2B

Bench - McCann, O'Hearn, Urias, 5th Outfielder

 

 

So replace your all star gold glove LF'er with Cowser.

That aint got a chance of happening

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The absence of the 140 OPS+ type Bat is some of why I think there should be a lean toward abundant early 2024 reps for all of Cowser, Kjerstad and Mayo.

You know Ramon Urias and Aaron Hicks are never going to be that guy.

Holliday is a different cat for me.     There's the triangulation for a '25 Rookie of the Year, and it seems to me like his skillset is such that more man strength would improve his odds.     Broadly speaking, the contact skills seem generally present, but is there enough smashing to beat Evan Carter?     You know with a good degree of likelihood the smash factor will grow as he finishes filling out.      In his presser, I noted Elias was specific on Holliday and being excited "to see what he looks like" in Sarasota.

April 2024 is a soft schedule.    Its interesting game theory if on May 15 they are running good like 26-14 and Holliday is hitting for okay not great SLG.

Westburg SLG v. Holliday SLG could be an interesting indicator who holds 2B as the year goes along.

I think we worry a little too much about getting an extra pick in the 30-50 range.   I think they should call Holliday up when they think he’s ready not when he has a better chance of winning ROY.

[CaptainRedbeard]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t care if the bat is right handed. That is over blown.

Alonso and Guerrero being right handed are a minor reason why they’re not a good fit. Guerrero might not be available at all (especially in the division) and is due $20M+ going through arbitration this year. Alonso is also potentially going to get extended and if available is due the same $20M+ and is in his last year of arbitration. Swapping in one of them for Santander is ~$8M more for something like a 1-2 WAR improvement, in addition to whatever you have to trade to get them. You can add Goldschmidt into that group as well with very similar circumstances, although he’s almost certainly not available considering the Cardinals chose not to trade him at the deadline.

None of those players are close to being worth trading Westburg or Ortiz for, so you’re just re-arranging pieces without solving the “problem” of having too many prospects without places to play them at their optimal positions.

The point being that the Orioles could use another bat, but outside of perhaps Robert I don’t think a bat is available that is worth the cost of improvement relative to the Orioles’ existing options and they still leave you in the same place with Westburg & Ortiz. Is there any other hitter besides Robert that fits the bill? I’ve been looking because I want there to be one but I don’t think there is. 

[wildcard]

30 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Alonso and Guerrero being right handed are a minor reason why they’re not a good fit. Guerrero might not be available at all (especially in the division) and is due $20M+ going through arbitration this year. Alonso is also potentially going to get extended and if available is due the same $20M+ and is in his last year of arbitration. Swapping in one of them for Santander is ~$8M more for something like a 1-2 WAR improvement, in addition to whatever you have to trade to get them. You can add Goldschmidt into that group as well with very similar circumstances, although he’s almost certainly not available considering the Cardinals chose not to trade him at the deadline.

None of those players are close to being worth trading Westburg or Ortiz for, so you’re just re-arranging pieces without solving the “problem” of having too many prospects without places to play them at their optimal positions.

The point being that the Orioles could use another bat, but outside of perhaps Robert I don’t think a bat is available that is worth the cost of improvement relative to the Orioles’ existing options and they still leave you in the same place with Westburg & Ortiz. Is there any other hitter besides Robert that fits the bill? I’ve been looking because I want there to be one but I don’t think there is. 

I think the O's will grow their bats from Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad and Cowser.  Basallo the next year.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Hopefully. And I agree they could use the bat as well, but those are even more sparse. Using Fangraphs’ depth charts with half Steamer/ZIPS, there are 25 hitters projected for a 125 or better wRC+ (Ohtani and Robert not currently on the page given injury and these are their weird postseason depth charts). 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rfangraphsdc&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc

Ohtani and Soto (if even available) will be out of the Orioles’ price range, and outside Robert nearly all are already on contending teams. Guerrero and Alonso are potentially available, but are right handed, have no defensive value and due a lot of money in their remaining arbitration. Maybe the Phillies will be willing to move Schwarber, but unlikely, an even then he’ll be an expensive 31 year old DH. 

Mountcastle and Santander are projected for 116/115 wRC+. Bringing in somebody else between that and a projected 125 wRC+ is taking away ABs from either them or Cowser/Kjerstad, which feels like a sideways move at best.

They could go for a 3-5 WAR player that gets there through both the bat and glove together, but I think that’s still really just Robert who is potentially available.  

Trout? Not saying the Os would add his deal(LA may eat some of it to move him anyway) but I think he would come here.